Looking back at my predictions

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and though making my bold predictions each season is a lot of fun, it can be pretty painful looking back at my woeful guesswork once the season reaches the close. Although divisions, awards and stat-lines aren't completely decided yet, we have a pretty good idea of how the season is going to play out. How did my bold predictions fare?

1. The Yankees lose 90 games

After getting off to a terrific start behind Vernon Wells' monster April, the Yankees have slipped out of the play-off race in recent weeks and currently sit just two games above .500. My pre-season prediction of an 80-82 record may prove a good call, but losing 90 games looks out of the question at the moment.

2. Giancarlo Stanton leads the majors in home runs

The one year I don't choose him will be the year he stays healthy and productive... Stanton struggled with an injury for a couple of months earlier this season, and hasn't been nearly as productive when on the field, with just 13 homers in 75 games. The lack of line-up protection, and lack of incentive to perform at the top of his game may play a role, but the persistent knee problems and tendency to blow hot and cold are bigger concerns for me.

3. Yu Darvish wins the Cy Young

Well, this wasn't a bad call. Darvish's 2.64 ERA is fourth in the American League, whilst he leads the Majors with a ridiculous 207 strikeouts in 153 innings. The 12-5 record is good, but he is probably playing second fiddle to Max Scherzer in the Cy Young race thanks to his ridiculous 17-1 record. If Darvish can be strong down the stretch and guide the Rangers into the post-season, he could be my best prediction so far.

4. The Nationals win 110 games

Wow. At 59-61, Washington has been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, and look certain to miss out on the play-offs, never mind challenge this lofty wins total. My worst prediction, and by quite some way.

5. Adam Dunn has more strikeouts than any pitcher in baseball

Adam Dunn has actually cut down on his strikeouts this season, and whilst he may challenge the 200 mark once again, he won't even lead hitters in this category, never mind pitchers. Chris Carter and Mike Napoli are the front-runners, but don't look like challenging Darvish.

Not a lot to love there... how about my five breakout candidates?

1. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

If you just look at win-loss record, you could be fooled into thinking Moore has taken great strides this season, as his 14-3 record is one of the best in the Majors. In reality, Moore has battled more inconsistency, as the strikeouts are barely better than league average and his control problems continue to put runners on base. The .212 average against is solid, but if Moore is going to become the next Kershaw, he needs to improve his fastball command and get access to his devastating change-up and curveball.

2. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

For a couple of months this looked like a terrible call, as Hosmer scuffled at the plate, hitting one homer in April and May whilst slugging just .333. After George Brett's installation as hitting coach, Hosmer suddenly came alive, hitting .303/.347/.541 in June with six homers and .324/.351/.495 in July with four more dingers. He's suffered from another power outage so far in July, but the .295 average is solid and he has shown at least glimpses of the promise he showed in his rookie season.

3. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves

As I wrote at the beginning of the season, Simmons is going to be the best defensive shortstop in the National League. In fact, he's going to be the best defensive player in the Major Leagues, possibly even the best in history. Much has been made of Simmons ridiculous range, instincts, glove and of course arm at shortstop, and whilst the bat has been disappointing (.284 OBP, .360 SLG), Simmons has still accrued 2.9 wins above replacement, thanks entirely to his ridiculous defense.

4. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians

Santana got off to a rip-roaring start, hitting .389/.476/.722 in April. However, he hit just .200 with little power in May and has continued to struggle for power since, with just nine homers since April. His elite plate discipline allows him to draw walks even when his bat isn't firing, which is extremely useful, but it appears he will never hit above .250, and the 27 homer 2011 season may have been an outlier.

5. Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

My best call of the five, Segura has been excellent for the Brewers this season, putting up a .309/.344/.456 triple-slash and 4.2 WAR. His plate discipline is questionable, but Segura makes plenty of contact and has stolen 35 bases this season, as well as flashing some pop with twelve homers. He's struggled a little more in the past few months, particularly in the power department, but appears to have the skills to be a five win player with some consistency, which is a major coup for the Brewers who acquired him in return for Zack Greinke last season.

And finally, who did I pick to win their respective divisions?

AL East - Toronto Blue Jays

If I'm going to strike out in the NL East, I may as well make it the AL East too...

AL Central - Detroit Tigers

No surprises that the Tigers are having another strong season, and they've pulled away from the pack more in recent weeks.

AL West - Texas Rangers

The Rangers hold a slim lead at the moment, but once again have the Athletics breathing right down their neck.

NL East - Washington Nationals

The only reason they're second in the division is because the Mets, Phillies and Marlins are even worse.

NL Central - Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are having a strong season, with a 69-52 record, but right now they are just third in the division, as the surprise Pirates and consistent Cardinals continue to impress. There will be three teams in the post-season from this division.

NL West - San Francisco Giants

The Giants have been woeful this season, as Madison Bumgarner has been there only reliable starter and the offense has been extremely weak. They currently sit last in the division with a 53-67 record.


So overall, not a brilliant set of predictions! They play 162 games for a reason, and the NL Central race in particular will be fascinating to watch, but I don't expect any of these poor guesses to come true.