Five guys primed for a breakout season

Predicting breakout seasons can be tough. Sometimes all the signs seem to point to a monster year at the plate, and four months later the guy you picked has been demoted to triple-A because he can barely break the Mendoza line. If you expect a guy to hit .300, then it becomes an unimpressive feat (see Mauer, Joe), but if you expect him to hit .250 then it's an extraordinary breakout (see Bautista, Jose circa 2011). Some popular breakout names last year went on to have big years (Mike Trout, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Minor) but some were far from impressive (Eric Hosmer, Jesus Montero). Who do I see making the next step this season?

1. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

A popular breakout name as a rookie last season, Matt Moore was solid if unspectacular in the Rays rotation. A 3.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP weren't quite the numbers people cited when predicting a big season, but for a 22 year old pitcher in the AL East it's not bad at all. The strikeout rate was healthy at 8.88 K/9 and if he can reduce the walks (81 in 177 innings) I think he could easily fill the void left by James Shields. His Cy Young seasons probably aren't arriving in the next couple of years, but he could easily become a top starter with that stud defense behind him.

2. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

Hosmer struggled mightily as a sophomore last year, hitting just .232 with 14 home runs. He was mighty unlucky, particularly in April when he had an extraordinarily low .190 BABIP. From there, he began to throw away his plate discipline as he searched for a higher average and the season was ultimately lost. He still has the same tools that had scouts raving a year ago, and I think he can bounce back for the Royals this year and put up a .280/.340/.440 triple-slash.

3. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves

It doesn't matter what Simmons does at the plate this season, he is still going to be the best defensive shortstop in the National League. He's simply superb in the field, but don't be fooled into thinking he is a glove-only player who will hit ninth and barely scrape together a .280 OBP. He won a batting title in the Minors and will be hitting leadoff for a high powered Braves offense. He was a monster for the Netherlands in the WBC, and I think he could easily score 100 runs whilst hitting around .280 with patience and a bit of power/speed. He's primed for greatness.

4. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians

This is a slightly odd choice, because Santana has made himself into one of the better catchers in the league already, what kind of room is there for growth? I think there's plenty. Santana has never been a high average guy, hitting .252 last season, but he has elite plate discipline, drawing 91 walks to give himself a .365 OBP. Batters with his kind of patience generally develop better average because pitchers begin to throw more strikes, and his raw power doesn't need explaining, as he has 45 homers over the past two seasons. If he can up the average to around .275, you're talking about a player with 25 home run power, a .370 OBP and elite defense behind the plate.

5. Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

Segura isn't about to win the MVP award, or a batting title for that matter. But he is a solid player who should be a lock for 3 or 4 wins a season for several years. The defense is solid at shortstop, and he has an excellent hit tool, with line drive power that should let him hit for average even if the home run total is unlikely to surpass 10. He's also got enough speed to be a perennial 20 steal threat, and maybe even coast into the 30s in his peak, so whilst he's not a particularly sexy name to back for a big season, I think he'll go under the radar as one of the Brewers better starters.

The guys who just missed

Jesus Montero - It was kind of him or Hosmer from the bounceback candidates, and even with the Safeco fences in I'm not sure he'll be a much better hitter.

Domonic Brown - I like the ability, and I like the potential, but you just don't know when the Phillies are going to decide they don't like him again and send him to AAA.

Jackie Bradley/Jedd Gyorko - Obvious guys who built up some buzz in Spring Training, but don't expect all-stars.

Wil Myers/Oscar Taveras/Zack Wheeler/Gerrit Cole/Jurickson Profar - I expect all these guys to make it to the big leagues at some point this year, and be impact players when they do make it, but it's impossible to guess when they'll be called up. I'd guess Myers is the first to get called up, but injuries to any team could open a hole.