Yup, another list. A simply unbelievable October of baseball so far, and every game that could have been played in the Divisional Series' will be played. We will get 20 games of baseball, and what an 18 games they have been so far. The Giants launched probably the greatest NLDS comeback since it was incepted, as the Reds were beat on 3 consecutive days at home for the first time all year. They were led, as always, by the unbelievable Buster Posey, who's grand slam and throwing out of Bruce at 3rd base were two of the biggest plays of the game. Meanwhile, the A's pitted momentum, cinderella-story and the will of a nation against Verlander. And Verlander dominated them. The O's won another extra-inning game to pull their series back to 2-2, and Jayson Werth capped off a 13 pitch, 9th inning at-bat with a walk-off homer.
So, without further ado - here's what we've learnt:
1. Baseball is amazing
Seriously. No other sport provides the same day-to-day drama, the knowledge that at any time a record could be broken, a play could do something so unbelievable it knocks the breath out of you. J.J. Hardy busting out of a slump to silence the Bronx. Jayson Werth cranking a mammoth walk off home-run. Buster Posey turning a 94 mph fastball around and into the upper deck in left field for a grand slam. Justin Verlander taking apart one of the most potent AL line-ups like he was playing a video game. What a sport.
2. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher we will ever see
'Justin Verlander can't pitch in the post-season'. 'He can't handle high-pressure games'. 'He only ever does well against weak line-ups'. Well guess what, in the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, Verlander threw a complete-game, 4 hit, 11 strike-out shutout of the Athletics in front of one of the best crowds in the Major Leagues, never mind millions of baying fans worldwide on tv. His fastball wasn't touching 100. But combined with a knee-buckling curve, off the table change-up and astonishing location, he simply dismantled the Athletics line-up. There is no-one better in the game right now, and I challenge whether we will see anyone with his kind of repertoire and ability in the next 50 years.
3. Home field advantage means nothing
If the Cardinals or Orioles clinch their respective spots in the championship series' tonight, it would match the post-season record of 5 road 'clinchers'. If they both win it would break it, before the CS and WS. Maybe the one-off 2-3 format is the reason - the team with the best record plays 2 games on the road before playing 3 on the trot back at home, but maybe teams have just found a way to negate home field advantage. Crowds are louder than ever before, but teams just aren't scared or intimidated by them.
4. Buster Posey is the National League MVP
There are two reasons for this. One is pure brilliance and another is pure wrong. There appear to be 4 possible candidates for the NL MVP. The two that bear comparison are Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Molina has long been one of the most underrated catchers in the Major League. In fact, I think he is criminally underrated - the most underrated hitter in the entire majors. However, I think this inability to recognise his offensive prowess is offset by the fact that his defense is overrated. Hear me out now. He is the best defensive catcher in the league - I'm not denying that. But the extent to which he is the best defensive catcher is debatable. His regular season fielding percentage of .997 was second only to Brian McCann who caught 170 less innings. He allowed just 38 steals and threw out an incredible 35 runners. Posey was worse - but not a lot. He allowed way more steals (87) although he threw out 38 runners and his fielding percentage was 6 ticks worse despite allowing just 2 passed balls. Not all of these stats are of course attributable to the catcher, things like steals can be put on pitchers too. With the bat, Posey's output has been greater - again, not as much as people like to think. He has a greater average, runs, RBI and home run number, but not so much that it becomes a non-contest. Both players are extremely comparable, but Posey wins in my opinion because offensive out-put is generally more valuable and easier to put down to one player and because he was for most of the season the only hitter in the Giants line-up.
The depressing part of this, is that really Ryan Braun had the best season in the National League. His .319 average was just .17 worse than Posey and 8 ticks worse than McCutchen. He stole 30 bases, being caught just 7 times - McCutchen (who is generally considered a speedier player) stole just 20 and was thrown out 12 times. Molina stole a surprising amount for a catcher but obviously not on the level Braun did. In terms of counting stats, Braun's incredible 41 homers led the National League despite a lack of line-up protection. His 112 RBI fell a close 2nd to Chase Headley but his .595 slugging percentage fell second just to Giancarlo Stanton. His fielding isn't terrific, but it isn't lousy either. On the basis of production, and worth to his side, Braun should have serious consideration for MVP but he won't, because the writers who vote for the award will still be sore about his drug scandal from last season - despite the fact that it has had no influence over this, arguably more terrific, season.
5. Ace > Depth
Much was made of the decision by the Washington Nationals to cut their phenomenon Stephen Strasburg's season short despite the fact he was one of the main reasons they were going to the play-offs for the first time in the young team's history. One of the key points made in defence of Mike Rizzo was that Washington has excellent pitching depth. This is undeniable - Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are all capable starters. But the divisional series' have shown that an ace is much greater than depth. The obvious example is Justin Verlander - he essentially carried his team into the ALCS with his two starts. On the flip side, Oakland had no obvious ace - Jarrod Parker is a good and highly talented young pitcher, but not someone you would want to entrust in a must-win game. The Giants rode 6 strong innings from potential Cy Young candidate Matt Cain to victory, as the Reds were forced to rue what could have been with their ace (Johnny Cueto) sidelined. Tonight's pitching match-up between Sabathia and Hammel seems to be a no-brainer. When it comes to winner-takes-all 5 or 7 game series, an ace is absolutely crucial. If you can get two wins from your key starter, then it makes the job incredibly simple for the other games - just win 2 of the other 5. That's why, despite all their struggles during the regular season, you could never count the Tigers out.
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