So, for those of you who remember, I produced some bold pre-season predictions back in March and said I would look back on them during the season. Although we are now already very deep into the season, i figured now would be a good time to see how I am getting on...
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
Well, this was quite clearly bold and, in hindsight, quite clearly wrong. Whilst there are no doubts that Gallardo has the raw stuff to be an elite pitcher (his strikeout numbers have remained impressive) his inconsistency has once again dogged him this year. A 12-8 record with a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP is not terrible by any means, but if you take out some of his absolute stinkers like 5 innings, 7 ERs against Washington in June and two atrocious starts against St Louis in April then his stats begin to become excellent. He suffers largely from inconsistency and inability to properly locate his fastball. Only twice all year has he managed to get through an outing without giving up a walk, and that has elevated his pitch counts in every start. He has thrown over 97 pitches in all but two starts this season, yet has not been able to get through 8 innings in a single one. If he could make himself more efficient, saving the long at-bats and strikeouts for critical situations, he could yet make himself a Cy Young contender in the future.
2. The Red Sox don't make the playoffs (again)
Hampered by key injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Andrew Bailey and recently Ortiz and Pedroia, the Red Sox seemed destined for another 'what-if' season. Their starting rotation has been nothing short of terrible for large majorities of the season, with veterans Lester and Beckett turning from reliable work-horses into inconsistent pitchers. Their chances at the playoffs seem to be over, although with Ellsbury and Crawford back, Buchholz pitching well and Adrian Gonzalez finally cranking the ball to all fields, there is no team in baseball you'd pick over the Red Sox to make a late run now. I'll give myself a pat on the back for this prediction at the moment, although we will need to wait until October to see if the Sox have a chance at playoff baseball.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
I expected Stanton to put up astronomical numbers this season for a number of reasons - firstly absolutely destroys the ball if it is in the strike zone, secondly he has got better at identifying when the ball isn't in the strike zone and thirdly he had the most line-up protection he had ever received. Despite playing in one of the most spacious ballparks in the National League, I was correct - Stanton has been a beast when playing. However, that has been the problem. Sidelined for over a month between July and August, Stanton was forced to watch from the sidelines as the Marlins imploded. However, he has continued to tear the cover off the ball whilst he is healthy - a .287 average with 24 homers and 61 RBI is testament to that. A run at the home run crown seems impossible with him 9 big flies off the pace, but there is no-one with more raw power in baseball, so if Stanton gets hot - look out.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Ah. At the start of the season I was quietly confident that Duda could put together an excellent season - he had drawn rave reviews from the Mets staff and had put together an excellent spring training that seemed to confirm him a spot in the middle of the Mets lineup. He put together reasonable stat-lines in April and May but simply fell apart in June and July. His 12 homers led the Mets for a while, but his low batting average and poor fielding led the Mets to drop him down to AAA. He is working on a new stance that the Mets will hope allow him to make more solid contact with the ball, but any sort of vault into the upper echelons of Major League outfielder will take quite some turnaround from Duda.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
Well, this is probably the prediction I have done best in so far. The Nats sport the best record in the Majors at 75-46 and are currently running away with what was expected to be a tight NL East race. At the moment it seems their place in the post-season is a formality if they keep playing the way they have been all season, and what happens when they get there is anyone's guess. Behind phenomenal starting pitching from Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmermann, the Nats have put together an excellent season, despite some below-par hitting from the middle of their order. With shortstop Ian Desmond back, the Nats will hope to power away from rivals Atlanta and secure their crown at the top of the NL East. An interesting twist will be what happens to Stephen Strasburg. Having lived up to his hype as an elite pitcher, Strasburg was expected to be pulled after 160 innings this season. However, 140 innings into this season and Strasburg is a key reason why the Nats are making a playoff run. If the Nats do decide to remove him from the rotation, they will likely be without him for several weeks of the season. Another option could be to remove him from the regular season but reinstate him for the post-season. All these questions will be tough to answer for Nats GM Rizzo.
No comments:
Post a Comment