Tuesday 1 May 2012

Division breakdown: AL Central

One division down, 5 to go, and continuing the journey across the AL, we stop off next at the AL Central Division. Like the AL East, the Central division has 5 teams. Although often thought of as a reasonably uncompetitive division, it plays host to some of the more exciting teams in baseball. They are the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals.

Last season, the Tigers ran away with the title, with 95 wins, 15 clear of second place Cleveland. Behind MVP pitcher Justin Verlander, the Tigers were simply unstoppable, riding the big bats of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez to a place in the ALCS after disposing of the Yankees, although they lost to the Rangers at the final hurdle. This season looks like being no different, although no doubt the other teams in the division will have something to say about that...

The Chicago White Sox were not long ago the dominant force in the division, winning the World Series in 2005, and securing another AL Central title in 2008, but now are forced to rebuild. The pitching is not as dominant as it once was, as ace of the rotation Mark Buehrle has joined the Marlins, and the pressure is now more on young pitchers Chris Sale and Addison Reed. With the bat, old forces Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynski continue to rack up the hits, but last season's massive bust Adam Dunn will be hoping to rebound from an average that would embarrass most pitchers. The Sox don't look like being valid candidates for the post-season this year, and a couple of seasons of rebuilding look in store, as they try to find the line-up of the future.

The Cleveland Indians do not have quite the same history as the White Sox to fall back on, but look destined to be a team that could challenge for the division in the not too distant future. After several reshapes in the years leading up to 2011, the team seemed to have a good, young core, destined to be strong in several teams. The side took a step back in many people's eyes when they traded away 4 top prospects in order to get Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies. Jimenez has since underperformed, although the Indians staff is still a strong one. Behind consistent sinker-baller Justin Masterson, Jimenez, Tomlin and Jeanmar Gomez all provide strong performances. With the bat, the team revolves around young catcher Carlos Santana, who is considered by many to be one of the best catchers in the Majors. Having just turned 26, the Indians will be hoping his best days are yet to come. Two bright prospects punctuate the infield - second baseman Jason Kipnis who strode onto the big scene in a big way last season and third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, who suffered an injury at the beginning of the season keeping him off the roster. The Indians will likely be vying for second place this season, but the future looks bright for the Tribe.

The Detroit Tigers are not only favourites to win the division, but in many people's eyes, they are favourites for the World Series title. After an impressive performance last season, the Tigers bolstered their offense in a massive way over the off-season, splurging the cash on 1st baseman Prince Fielder to cover for the injury to Victor Martinez. Whilst this move forced Miguel Cabrera to move to 3rd base, it also gave him fantastic protection in the lineup, meaning a possible breakout season for one of the greatest hitters in the league. On the mound, the Tigers look no further than ace Justin Verlander, who is nothing short of an incredible athlete. Topping 100mph consistently on the speed gun (he threw the final pitch of the night at 100mph the other day against KC), and with a nasty slider, curveball and changeup to complement it, Verlander is the most dominant pitcher in the league, and he is backed up ably by ground-ball pitchers Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer.

The Kansas City Royals are in many ways similar to the Indians. Over the last 10 years, the Royals have plummeted from low to low, recording several 100 loss seasons, signing free agents, trading big money players and having Cy Young winner Zack Greinke traded away to the Brewers. However, last season the prospect-collecting began to reap dividends. Players like Alex Gordon stepped up and took leadership in the clubhouse, while young talents Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Manny Pina, Johnny Giavotella and Salvador Perez were called up to the big leagues. Hosmer in particular began to shine, and looks set to provide pop from the heart of the Royals lineup. The pitching staff is led by veteran Bruce Chen, with Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez providing able support. The team won't challenge for the division this year, but should definitely be ones to watch for the coming seasons.

And finally the Minnesota Twins. The Twins dominated the AL Central for most of the 2000's, winning the title in 6 of the 10 years. However, the team is now much weaker, and finished last season in last place in the division with a 63-99 record. The team was weak on offense, with all-star catcher Joe Mauer out injured and ineffective for the season. Only Cuddyer (who has since been traded to the Rockies), Kubel, Revere and Valencia logged over 100 hits whilst the Twins did not have a single 10 game winner on the mound. There is not a whole lot of depth in the minors and prospect development is not particularly strong, so it may be a few seasons yet before the Twins can compete for the division title again.

So, who will end up where? The top and bottom are easy in my opinion. The Tigers are too strong not to be considered favourites, and should take the division at a canter. I'd expect the Indians to finish second provided their young players continue to develop. Kansas City should finish a comfortable third, but they have been off to a terrible start this year, and will need the likes of Hosmer and Butler to come up big if they want to turn it around. The White Sox and Twins will likely battle it out for fourth, although the Sox have gotten off to a tear so far this year, particularly with the bat, and will be looking to show they're more than just an ageing team.

The MVP of the decision is in no doubt in my mind, as Miguel Cabrera should benefit from having the big bat of Fielder behind him in the lineup, and should have a career year with some astronomical numbers. The Royals will see improved production from star first baseman Eric Hosmer, the Indians will hope to see a breakout year from young pitcher Justin Masterson, the White Sox will hope Alex Rios can turn his fortunes around and the Twins will be hoping Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can bounce back from injuries and have massive 2012's.

It should be a tight, competitive year in the AL Central, but I find it tricky to see anyone beating the Tigers.

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