Well, it finally happened. Arizona had been touting their fine out-fielder for all of the off-season if not longer, and after interest from the Rangers and Mariners, the Atlanta Braves decided they quite liked creating the finest out-field in baseball and in the process brought both Upton brothers under one roof. The simple maths of the trade is that the Diamondbacks have given up Justin Upton and Chris Johnson for Martin Prado, Randall Delgado and three minor-leaguers - Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed and Brandon Drury. But who won the trade?
The Background
Well, first of all it is impossible to say who 'won' this trade at this moment in time, because none of the aforementioned players have swung a bat since the trade. The question for those of you who were not keeping up with the rumours is quite likely - why on earth were the Diamondbacks looking to trade Upton? This is a 25 year old slugger who is widely viewed as one of the best young players in Major League baseball. In 2009 as a 22 year old, Upton hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals, and after a down 2010 he truly began to shine in 2011 as he hit 31 homers and stole 21 bases to go along with a .289 average. Although 2012 was a poor year with the bat, he was hampered by a thumb injury all season, which generally saps hitters of their power. He plays excellent defense in the out-field, and as I mentioned, he's just 25 years old, meaning his best years should be ahead of him.
However, he has always been plagued with 'make-up' and 'personality' issues. Expected to be the future leader of the D-Backs clubhouse, Upton has (like his brother) faced issues with attitude, and it has been obvious for some time that Kevin Towers (the Arizona GM) and perhaps Kirk Gibson were not happy with these issues. Whether this combined with an inability to truly 'gel' with the hitting coaches, it has become apparent that Upton was given the cold shoulder by the D-Backs and a trade seemed like the only plausible solution.
Obviously, this isn't a great situation for the D-Backs to be in. If other teams know you want to get rid of a player, that tends to reduce his trade value. The D-Backs appeared to have cemented an excellent deal with the Mariners where they were getting hold of two blue-chip prospects, but the deal fell through as the Mariners were on Upton's no-trade list. Enter the Braves, who took advantage of the low asking price to snap up the younger Upton and propel themselves into possible World Series contention...
The Players
We've already discussed Justin Upton, and the clear second player in this deal is Martin Prado. One of the most loved players in the Braves clubhouse, he is considered to be a fantastic guy to have in the clubhouse, and has the skills to back it up with production. His career average of .295 shows off his best skill, which is the ability to get bat on ball. He also has decent power, with more than 10 home runs in each of his past 4 seasons and a new-found stealing ability by blasting past his career high of 5 steals with a 17-steal 2012 season. He also plays good defense at either left-field or third-base, the latter of which fills a major void in the D-Backs team. He was without a doubt the toughest player to let go for the Braves, and after a 5.4 WAR in 2012, it could easily be argued that his short-term value is greater than that of Upton.
The top prospect in the deal is right-hand pitcher Randall Delgado who got his first taste of regular big league baseball last season, but not a particularly successful one - he went 4-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He still has a good deal of potential, striking out 9.6 batters per nine whilst in the minor leagues, although he's likely not going to be the ace of any rotation. The other three prospects are all fairly poor and have little chance of ever being impact big-league players. Chris Johnson may make up half of a plateau at third base for the Braves, with Juan Francisco likely to play the games where a RHP is on the mound.
Who won?
I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Upton and Prado will provide fairly similar value this season, although there is no doubt that Upton has the potential to rip off an MVP calibre season. However, where the value differs is in the future - Prado is set to become a free agent after the 2013 season, so unless the D-Backs can arrange a long-term deal he could play just a single season for Arizona. On the other hand, Upton will be a Brave until 2016 at the earliest. Randall Delgado helps make up for this gap a little with his potential for being a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter, but he is no surefire. Overall, I think Atlanta win this trade. Upton is yet to fulfil his potential, and when/if he does, it's going to be an MVP-calibre season. He certainly has the ability to hit .300 with 35 homers and 25 steals, and perhaps the move to a new club and joining his brother will invigorate him.
What does it mean for everyone else?
Well, there are two players that this has an obvious effect on. The first is free agent Michael Bourn, for whom the number of competing teams with a gap in center-field is diminishing. The Rangers look like the most likely destination for him now. The second is young power-hitting right-fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who has also been touted by the Marlins as they completely revamp their squad. Few players in the game are as valuable as Stanton, and as David Schoenfield pointed out in a 'Sweetspot' post, a player of his calibre has never been traded in Major League baseball. Not many players in baseball history have had Stanton's incredible power at the tender age of 23. This Upton trade sets the market price for someone like Stanton, though I believe if he is going to be traded it would take at least 3 or 4 blue-chip prospects, and few teams have those kind of players.
On a lighter note, not long til pitchers and catchers report now! It's been a long, depressing off-season but Spring is around the corner, and with it we can stop speculating about impossible trades and start talking about everyday action.
Showing posts with label stanton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stanton. Show all posts
Saturday, 26 January 2013
Thursday, 29 November 2012
A (late) look back on the pre-season predictions
Well, a quick look back at that post from March provides a few chuckles and shakes of the head. They certainly were bold predictions, and for that reason a lot of them now seem laughable. Without further ado, let's look back...
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
Hmm. Not my best call. Gallardo got off to a terrible start, struggling through April with a 6.08 ERA. He began to turn this around after that, and only in September did his ERA rise above 4 again. However, final counting stats of 204 IP, a 3.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, a 16-9 record and 204 strikeouts are (whilst good) not Cy-calibre figures. His strikeout rate is still excellent, but he needs to work on consistency. Time is on his side, but for me to ever make a prediction involving him and Cy Young again, he is going to need to put together a full season of brilliance.
2. The Red Sox don't make the play-offs (again)
An excellent call on my part! Not only did the Red Sox fail to make the play-offs, they also contrived to finish bottom of the AL East with a pitiful 69-93 record. Bobby Valentine suffered immensely at the helm, and the early trade of Youkilis was only the start of a number of high-profile exits, as a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett leave the club. Things can't get much worse for them in 2013, although they currently have a skeleton of a roster and will need to make big roster moves if they want to have a sniff at post-season baseball.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Almost a fantastic call. Sure, Stanton wasn't a nobody entering 2012, but his stock has risen immeasurably over the last 8 months as he put together a superb season for Miami. His final season total of 37 homers was not enough to challenge Miguel Cabrera's 44, but Stanton played just 123 games. Stanton may well have fulfilled this prediction but for an injury that sidelined him for the best part of a month and may have hampered him when he did take to the field. He is a physical freak, and despite playing in a massive stadium at the heart of a weak order he was one of the most punishing players in baseball. If he plays 160 games next season, he will smash this prediction - no way this seems all that bold now.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Hear that? It's embarrassment. Duda was horrible in 2012, failing to capitalize on what could possibly have been a full season at the heart of the Mets line-up. He started the season so poorly he was dropped to AAA in May, and failed to put it together whilst in the minors as evidenced by his weak final counting stats of .239 average with 15 homers and 57 RBI. The power has never been a problem, but Duda struck out far too much to hit for anything like a good average, and he will have to perform out of his skin in Spring Training if he wants to find himself on the Mets line-up card come opening day. Elite is a word bandied around far too much in my opinion, but in no realms of possibility could Duda be considered just that.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
From a terrible call to an excellent call. In the end, I fell just short in this prediction as the Nationals lost the 5-game NLDS and ultimately ended a superb year on a sour note. However, they finished the regular season with the best record in baseball, falling just shy of 100 wins. The pitching was the lynchpin of the side, and timely hitting from Zimmerman, Harper, Morse, LaRoche and Desmond among others made this team the best in the Majors, and they'll be bitterly disappointed they couldn't turn that into post-season success. However, they have a young side and should be a sure bet for another good year in 2013, it'll certainly be no bold prediction to see them play October baseball once more.
So there you have it. 3 excellent predictions and 2 extremely forgettable predictions. I had a lot of fun following these during the season, and will of course do the same thing in a few months time for 2013.
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
Hmm. Not my best call. Gallardo got off to a terrible start, struggling through April with a 6.08 ERA. He began to turn this around after that, and only in September did his ERA rise above 4 again. However, final counting stats of 204 IP, a 3.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, a 16-9 record and 204 strikeouts are (whilst good) not Cy-calibre figures. His strikeout rate is still excellent, but he needs to work on consistency. Time is on his side, but for me to ever make a prediction involving him and Cy Young again, he is going to need to put together a full season of brilliance.
2. The Red Sox don't make the play-offs (again)
An excellent call on my part! Not only did the Red Sox fail to make the play-offs, they also contrived to finish bottom of the AL East with a pitiful 69-93 record. Bobby Valentine suffered immensely at the helm, and the early trade of Youkilis was only the start of a number of high-profile exits, as a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett leave the club. Things can't get much worse for them in 2013, although they currently have a skeleton of a roster and will need to make big roster moves if they want to have a sniff at post-season baseball.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Almost a fantastic call. Sure, Stanton wasn't a nobody entering 2012, but his stock has risen immeasurably over the last 8 months as he put together a superb season for Miami. His final season total of 37 homers was not enough to challenge Miguel Cabrera's 44, but Stanton played just 123 games. Stanton may well have fulfilled this prediction but for an injury that sidelined him for the best part of a month and may have hampered him when he did take to the field. He is a physical freak, and despite playing in a massive stadium at the heart of a weak order he was one of the most punishing players in baseball. If he plays 160 games next season, he will smash this prediction - no way this seems all that bold now.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Hear that? It's embarrassment. Duda was horrible in 2012, failing to capitalize on what could possibly have been a full season at the heart of the Mets line-up. He started the season so poorly he was dropped to AAA in May, and failed to put it together whilst in the minors as evidenced by his weak final counting stats of .239 average with 15 homers and 57 RBI. The power has never been a problem, but Duda struck out far too much to hit for anything like a good average, and he will have to perform out of his skin in Spring Training if he wants to find himself on the Mets line-up card come opening day. Elite is a word bandied around far too much in my opinion, but in no realms of possibility could Duda be considered just that.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
From a terrible call to an excellent call. In the end, I fell just short in this prediction as the Nationals lost the 5-game NLDS and ultimately ended a superb year on a sour note. However, they finished the regular season with the best record in baseball, falling just shy of 100 wins. The pitching was the lynchpin of the side, and timely hitting from Zimmerman, Harper, Morse, LaRoche and Desmond among others made this team the best in the Majors, and they'll be bitterly disappointed they couldn't turn that into post-season success. However, they have a young side and should be a sure bet for another good year in 2013, it'll certainly be no bold prediction to see them play October baseball once more.
So there you have it. 3 excellent predictions and 2 extremely forgettable predictions. I had a lot of fun following these during the season, and will of course do the same thing in a few months time for 2013.
Sunday, 25 March 2012
5 Bold Predictions for the 2012 season
So, Spring Training is nearly (finally) over, muscles have been flexed and it is time to get down to the nitty-gritty of a 162-game season, culminating in a new wildcard one game playoff and then the usual playoff scenario, at the end of which one team will be crowned champion.
The usual names have been put in the hat - the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but this year looks more open than ever. Can the reigning champion Cardinals put together another strong season without their star slugger Albert Pujols? And will his new team, the Los Angeles Angels turn a few heads in the AL West after their busy off-season? What about the Tigers, a team many pick to be World Series favourites after the resurgence of Verlander last year and the arrival of Prince Fielder to add some pop to an already potent line-up?
Well, here are my 5 bold predictions for the upcoming season, we'll see how close I get later on...:
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
I said they'd be bold didn't I? This is a guy who finally put it all together last season. He went 17-10 with a 3.52 ERA, making him a fair shout for the top arm in the Brewers rotation (which includes Zack Grienke). He threw 207 innings of work, so obviously has the durability, and also struck out 207 hitters at a clip of 1 every inning. That is an astounding stat considering his age (just turned 26) and the fact he hadn't broken out like that over his last few seasons. He also had a 1.21 groundout to flyout ratio, suggesting that when he doesn't strike out a batter, he keeps the ball on the ground. Every season he has improved - cutting his walks and increasing his strikeouts. Not only that, but he hit with a .221 average over 68 at bats - better than Adam Dunn. The kid is an athlete, and he's on the verge of greatness.
2. The Red Sox don't make the playoffs (again)
After their epic meltdown in September last year, you would hope the Red Sox would learn from their mistakes and not be complacent this season. Not only that, but they acquired Andrew Bailey to fill the closer role and should get a bounceback season from the likes of Crawford and Youkilis. However, they're playing in the AL East, one of the toughest divisions in the Majors, and I just see Tampa Bay having a fantastic year. Boston's pitching won't hold up, and their batting will crumble when they need it most, and another frustrating year will end in agony.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Mike, Giancarlo, whatever you want to call him, the kid can rake. He is just 22 years of age, and he's already hit 56 homers in his two seasons in the majors. Not only that, but he's moving to a field with a shorter left field wall. Not only that but he has more line-up protection than ever before. Still not convinced? On pitches inside the strike zone, Stanton has hit .336 with 45 home runs. It's not a matter of his hitting ability, it's whether he has the patience to wait for a good pitch. That will come with age. So will more power (bear in mind that of his 34 home runs last season, 15 were no doubters (most in Majors) and his average long ball went 416 feet). This kid is a frighteningly good prospect, and I think he crushes the ball this year.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Who? I hear you say. Duda. He joined the Mets big-league side at the end of last season and was quietly good, hitting for a .292 average with 10 homers and 50 RBI. That was only over the course of 301 at bats, and his spot in the outfield at Citi now looks secure. This spring, coaches have been singling out Duda consistently. They praised his swing, and now must praise him on a consistent basis as he continues to set a rapid pace in Spring Training (including an opposite field homer off Strasburg). He won't be absolutely lights out, but I think a .300, 25 home run, 90 RBI season isn't out of the question for him, and it would propel him into the top category for his position.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
The NL East is a tough division, and I don't see anyone but the Phillies winning it, but the new wildcard really benefits teams like the Nationals. I don't see the Braves doing so well this year, and I think the Nats are a good shout for 85 or 90 wins, which may well be enough to take them to the playoffs. They have a good rotation, behind the potent arm of Stephen Strasburg, and last years quiet performer Jordan Zimmermann. They should also be expecting bounce back seasons from Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so if Morse's form can continue, this could be a side that upsets the pack a bit in the playoffs - if they get there.
The usual names have been put in the hat - the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but this year looks more open than ever. Can the reigning champion Cardinals put together another strong season without their star slugger Albert Pujols? And will his new team, the Los Angeles Angels turn a few heads in the AL West after their busy off-season? What about the Tigers, a team many pick to be World Series favourites after the resurgence of Verlander last year and the arrival of Prince Fielder to add some pop to an already potent line-up?
Well, here are my 5 bold predictions for the upcoming season, we'll see how close I get later on...:
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
I said they'd be bold didn't I? This is a guy who finally put it all together last season. He went 17-10 with a 3.52 ERA, making him a fair shout for the top arm in the Brewers rotation (which includes Zack Grienke). He threw 207 innings of work, so obviously has the durability, and also struck out 207 hitters at a clip of 1 every inning. That is an astounding stat considering his age (just turned 26) and the fact he hadn't broken out like that over his last few seasons. He also had a 1.21 groundout to flyout ratio, suggesting that when he doesn't strike out a batter, he keeps the ball on the ground. Every season he has improved - cutting his walks and increasing his strikeouts. Not only that, but he hit with a .221 average over 68 at bats - better than Adam Dunn. The kid is an athlete, and he's on the verge of greatness.
2. The Red Sox don't make the playoffs (again)
After their epic meltdown in September last year, you would hope the Red Sox would learn from their mistakes and not be complacent this season. Not only that, but they acquired Andrew Bailey to fill the closer role and should get a bounceback season from the likes of Crawford and Youkilis. However, they're playing in the AL East, one of the toughest divisions in the Majors, and I just see Tampa Bay having a fantastic year. Boston's pitching won't hold up, and their batting will crumble when they need it most, and another frustrating year will end in agony.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Mike, Giancarlo, whatever you want to call him, the kid can rake. He is just 22 years of age, and he's already hit 56 homers in his two seasons in the majors. Not only that, but he's moving to a field with a shorter left field wall. Not only that but he has more line-up protection than ever before. Still not convinced? On pitches inside the strike zone, Stanton has hit .336 with 45 home runs. It's not a matter of his hitting ability, it's whether he has the patience to wait for a good pitch. That will come with age. So will more power (bear in mind that of his 34 home runs last season, 15 were no doubters (most in Majors) and his average long ball went 416 feet). This kid is a frighteningly good prospect, and I think he crushes the ball this year.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Who? I hear you say. Duda. He joined the Mets big-league side at the end of last season and was quietly good, hitting for a .292 average with 10 homers and 50 RBI. That was only over the course of 301 at bats, and his spot in the outfield at Citi now looks secure. This spring, coaches have been singling out Duda consistently. They praised his swing, and now must praise him on a consistent basis as he continues to set a rapid pace in Spring Training (including an opposite field homer off Strasburg). He won't be absolutely lights out, but I think a .300, 25 home run, 90 RBI season isn't out of the question for him, and it would propel him into the top category for his position.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
The NL East is a tough division, and I don't see anyone but the Phillies winning it, but the new wildcard really benefits teams like the Nationals. I don't see the Braves doing so well this year, and I think the Nats are a good shout for 85 or 90 wins, which may well be enough to take them to the playoffs. They have a good rotation, behind the potent arm of Stephen Strasburg, and last years quiet performer Jordan Zimmermann. They should also be expecting bounce back seasons from Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so if Morse's form can continue, this could be a side that upsets the pack a bit in the playoffs - if they get there.
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