Well, it finally happened. Arizona had been touting their fine out-fielder for all of the off-season if not longer, and after interest from the Rangers and Mariners, the Atlanta Braves decided they quite liked creating the finest out-field in baseball and in the process brought both Upton brothers under one roof. The simple maths of the trade is that the Diamondbacks have given up Justin Upton and Chris Johnson for Martin Prado, Randall Delgado and three minor-leaguers - Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed and Brandon Drury. But who won the trade?
The Background
Well, first of all it is impossible to say who 'won' this trade at this moment in time, because none of the aforementioned players have swung a bat since the trade. The question for those of you who were not keeping up with the rumours is quite likely - why on earth were the Diamondbacks looking to trade Upton? This is a 25 year old slugger who is widely viewed as one of the best young players in Major League baseball. In 2009 as a 22 year old, Upton hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals, and after a down 2010 he truly began to shine in 2011 as he hit 31 homers and stole 21 bases to go along with a .289 average. Although 2012 was a poor year with the bat, he was hampered by a thumb injury all season, which generally saps hitters of their power. He plays excellent defense in the out-field, and as I mentioned, he's just 25 years old, meaning his best years should be ahead of him.
However, he has always been plagued with 'make-up' and 'personality' issues. Expected to be the future leader of the D-Backs clubhouse, Upton has (like his brother) faced issues with attitude, and it has been obvious for some time that Kevin Towers (the Arizona GM) and perhaps Kirk Gibson were not happy with these issues. Whether this combined with an inability to truly 'gel' with the hitting coaches, it has become apparent that Upton was given the cold shoulder by the D-Backs and a trade seemed like the only plausible solution.
Obviously, this isn't a great situation for the D-Backs to be in. If other teams know you want to get rid of a player, that tends to reduce his trade value. The D-Backs appeared to have cemented an excellent deal with the Mariners where they were getting hold of two blue-chip prospects, but the deal fell through as the Mariners were on Upton's no-trade list. Enter the Braves, who took advantage of the low asking price to snap up the younger Upton and propel themselves into possible World Series contention...
The Players
We've already discussed Justin Upton, and the clear second player in this deal is Martin Prado. One of the most loved players in the Braves clubhouse, he is considered to be a fantastic guy to have in the clubhouse, and has the skills to back it up with production. His career average of .295 shows off his best skill, which is the ability to get bat on ball. He also has decent power, with more than 10 home runs in each of his past 4 seasons and a new-found stealing ability by blasting past his career high of 5 steals with a 17-steal 2012 season. He also plays good defense at either left-field or third-base, the latter of which fills a major void in the D-Backs team. He was without a doubt the toughest player to let go for the Braves, and after a 5.4 WAR in 2012, it could easily be argued that his short-term value is greater than that of Upton.
The top prospect in the deal is right-hand pitcher Randall Delgado who got his first taste of regular big league baseball last season, but not a particularly successful one - he went 4-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He still has a good deal of potential, striking out 9.6 batters per nine whilst in the minor leagues, although he's likely not going to be the ace of any rotation. The other three prospects are all fairly poor and have little chance of ever being impact big-league players. Chris Johnson may make up half of a plateau at third base for the Braves, with Juan Francisco likely to play the games where a RHP is on the mound.
Who won?
I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Upton and Prado will provide fairly similar value this season, although there is no doubt that Upton has the potential to rip off an MVP calibre season. However, where the value differs is in the future - Prado is set to become a free agent after the 2013 season, so unless the D-Backs can arrange a long-term deal he could play just a single season for Arizona. On the other hand, Upton will be a Brave until 2016 at the earliest. Randall Delgado helps make up for this gap a little with his potential for being a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter, but he is no surefire. Overall, I think Atlanta win this trade. Upton is yet to fulfil his potential, and when/if he does, it's going to be an MVP-calibre season. He certainly has the ability to hit .300 with 35 homers and 25 steals, and perhaps the move to a new club and joining his brother will invigorate him.
What does it mean for everyone else?
Well, there are two players that this has an obvious effect on. The first is free agent Michael Bourn, for whom the number of competing teams with a gap in center-field is diminishing. The Rangers look like the most likely destination for him now. The second is young power-hitting right-fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who has also been touted by the Marlins as they completely revamp their squad. Few players in the game are as valuable as Stanton, and as David Schoenfield pointed out in a 'Sweetspot' post, a player of his calibre has never been traded in Major League baseball. Not many players in baseball history have had Stanton's incredible power at the tender age of 23. This Upton trade sets the market price for someone like Stanton, though I believe if he is going to be traded it would take at least 3 or 4 blue-chip prospects, and few teams have those kind of players.
On a lighter note, not long til pitchers and catchers report now! It's been a long, depressing off-season but Spring is around the corner, and with it we can stop speculating about impossible trades and start talking about everyday action.
Showing posts with label justin upton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label justin upton. Show all posts
Saturday, 26 January 2013
Thursday, 6 December 2012
3 Trades That Make Sense
Free agency has begun at quite a rate in the Major Leagues, and this years winter meetings promise to be as exciting as ever. Several free-agents have begun to move off the board, with B.J. Upton signing in Atlanta, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino joining the Red Sox and the Nationals securing a one-year deal with Dan Haren. However, it is not just free agent signings that will be taking place this off-season. Trades are always hot-topic, and during the off-season this is no different. Some trades clearly benefit both sides whilst some leave fans and players alike scratching their head (ahem Marlins/Blue Jays). So which trades would make sense this off-season?
1. The Texas Rangers trade Elvis Andrus to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Justin Upton
This trade makes sense in my eyes for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Texas Rangers have top prospect Jurickson Profar playing elite short-stop at AAA, and scouts generally consider him major-league ready. The small glimpse we got of Profar in September last year was certainly enticing, and I'm willing to believe that he would not be much a of a downgrade at all with the bat in the Rangers line-up. They need to make room for him somehow, although whether they would prefer to deal away second baseman Ian Kinsler remains to be seen. Secondly, with the possible exit of Josh Hamilton (though I do think the Rangers will keep him), Texas will need an impact bat to slot into it's line-up. Upton had a down year in 2012, but he's still young and has incredible 5-tool potential. He'd be an immediate upgrade to the Ranger line-up. For the Diamondbacks, this fills a large hole at a shallow position at SS, and also creates room in their out-field for young star Adam Eaton. There has also reportedly been a dispute with Upton over his maturity, although the D-Backs maintain he is a key cog in their line-up. The Rangers have publicly said they will not be trading away either short-stop for Upton, but in my opinion (and especially if they are unable to sign Hamilton) the trade makes sense.
2. The Philadelphia Phillies trade Vance Worley to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Dexter Fowler
As a Colorado fan I don't really love this trade, but it makes sense from a baseball viewpoint. I expect the Phillies to go hard after Bourn, but this trade may well be seen as a cheaper one - Fowler is under team control for another 3 years. Coming off the back of his best year in the Majors with a .300 clip from the lead-off spot, Fowler is one of the top players in the Rockies organisation, but they need starting pitching desperately. Worley is probably at the peak of his trade value, although he still provides excellent value for the Rockies and would help an ailing rotation. Fowler's home/road splits provide reason for concern, although the Reds are also said to be interested in securing his CF services.
3. The Minnesota Twins trade Josh Willingham to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields
Having secured themselves a SS in Yunel Escobar, the Rays are still on the hunt for an impact bat to firm up their line-up. They have a plethora of pitching, and though Josh Willingham has just come off a career-year for the Twins, James Shields would likely be a pitcher of a calibre high enough to pique their interest. Aged 30, Shields is younger than you would expect for a pitcher with well over 1300 innings logged including 200+ over the past 6 seasons. He is extremely durable, and more recently has become one of the top pitchers in the American League, although he is said to be one of the most likely players to be traded this off-season. It is likely and maybe even possible that Shields ends up being traded away for a group of prospects, but this trade appears to answer immediate needs for both teams.
1. The Texas Rangers trade Elvis Andrus to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Justin Upton
This trade makes sense in my eyes for a number of reasons. Firstly, the Texas Rangers have top prospect Jurickson Profar playing elite short-stop at AAA, and scouts generally consider him major-league ready. The small glimpse we got of Profar in September last year was certainly enticing, and I'm willing to believe that he would not be much a of a downgrade at all with the bat in the Rangers line-up. They need to make room for him somehow, although whether they would prefer to deal away second baseman Ian Kinsler remains to be seen. Secondly, with the possible exit of Josh Hamilton (though I do think the Rangers will keep him), Texas will need an impact bat to slot into it's line-up. Upton had a down year in 2012, but he's still young and has incredible 5-tool potential. He'd be an immediate upgrade to the Ranger line-up. For the Diamondbacks, this fills a large hole at a shallow position at SS, and also creates room in their out-field for young star Adam Eaton. There has also reportedly been a dispute with Upton over his maturity, although the D-Backs maintain he is a key cog in their line-up. The Rangers have publicly said they will not be trading away either short-stop for Upton, but in my opinion (and especially if they are unable to sign Hamilton) the trade makes sense.
2. The Philadelphia Phillies trade Vance Worley to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Dexter Fowler
As a Colorado fan I don't really love this trade, but it makes sense from a baseball viewpoint. I expect the Phillies to go hard after Bourn, but this trade may well be seen as a cheaper one - Fowler is under team control for another 3 years. Coming off the back of his best year in the Majors with a .300 clip from the lead-off spot, Fowler is one of the top players in the Rockies organisation, but they need starting pitching desperately. Worley is probably at the peak of his trade value, although he still provides excellent value for the Rockies and would help an ailing rotation. Fowler's home/road splits provide reason for concern, although the Reds are also said to be interested in securing his CF services.
3. The Minnesota Twins trade Josh Willingham to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields
Having secured themselves a SS in Yunel Escobar, the Rays are still on the hunt for an impact bat to firm up their line-up. They have a plethora of pitching, and though Josh Willingham has just come off a career-year for the Twins, James Shields would likely be a pitcher of a calibre high enough to pique their interest. Aged 30, Shields is younger than you would expect for a pitcher with well over 1300 innings logged including 200+ over the past 6 seasons. He is extremely durable, and more recently has become one of the top pitchers in the American League, although he is said to be one of the most likely players to be traded this off-season. It is likely and maybe even possible that Shields ends up being traded away for a group of prospects, but this trade appears to answer immediate needs for both teams.
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