Well, it finally happened. Arizona had been touting their fine out-fielder for all of the off-season if not longer, and after interest from the Rangers and Mariners, the Atlanta Braves decided they quite liked creating the finest out-field in baseball and in the process brought both Upton brothers under one roof. The simple maths of the trade is that the Diamondbacks have given up Justin Upton and Chris Johnson for Martin Prado, Randall Delgado and three minor-leaguers - Zeke Spruill, Nick Ahmed and Brandon Drury. But who won the trade?
The Background
Well, first of all it is impossible to say who 'won' this trade at this moment in time, because none of the aforementioned players have swung a bat since the trade. The question for those of you who were not keeping up with the rumours is quite likely - why on earth were the Diamondbacks looking to trade Upton? This is a 25 year old slugger who is widely viewed as one of the best young players in Major League baseball. In 2009 as a 22 year old, Upton hit .300 with 26 homers and 20 steals, and after a down 2010 he truly began to shine in 2011 as he hit 31 homers and stole 21 bases to go along with a .289 average. Although 2012 was a poor year with the bat, he was hampered by a thumb injury all season, which generally saps hitters of their power. He plays excellent defense in the out-field, and as I mentioned, he's just 25 years old, meaning his best years should be ahead of him.
However, he has always been plagued with 'make-up' and 'personality' issues. Expected to be the future leader of the D-Backs clubhouse, Upton has (like his brother) faced issues with attitude, and it has been obvious for some time that Kevin Towers (the Arizona GM) and perhaps Kirk Gibson were not happy with these issues. Whether this combined with an inability to truly 'gel' with the hitting coaches, it has become apparent that Upton was given the cold shoulder by the D-Backs and a trade seemed like the only plausible solution.
Obviously, this isn't a great situation for the D-Backs to be in. If other teams know you want to get rid of a player, that tends to reduce his trade value. The D-Backs appeared to have cemented an excellent deal with the Mariners where they were getting hold of two blue-chip prospects, but the deal fell through as the Mariners were on Upton's no-trade list. Enter the Braves, who took advantage of the low asking price to snap up the younger Upton and propel themselves into possible World Series contention...
The Players
We've already discussed Justin Upton, and the clear second player in this deal is Martin Prado. One of the most loved players in the Braves clubhouse, he is considered to be a fantastic guy to have in the clubhouse, and has the skills to back it up with production. His career average of .295 shows off his best skill, which is the ability to get bat on ball. He also has decent power, with more than 10 home runs in each of his past 4 seasons and a new-found stealing ability by blasting past his career high of 5 steals with a 17-steal 2012 season. He also plays good defense at either left-field or third-base, the latter of which fills a major void in the D-Backs team. He was without a doubt the toughest player to let go for the Braves, and after a 5.4 WAR in 2012, it could easily be argued that his short-term value is greater than that of Upton.
The top prospect in the deal is right-hand pitcher Randall Delgado who got his first taste of regular big league baseball last season, but not a particularly successful one - he went 4-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He still has a good deal of potential, striking out 9.6 batters per nine whilst in the minor leagues, although he's likely not going to be the ace of any rotation. The other three prospects are all fairly poor and have little chance of ever being impact big-league players. Chris Johnson may make up half of a plateau at third base for the Braves, with Juan Francisco likely to play the games where a RHP is on the mound.
Who won?
I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Upton and Prado will provide fairly similar value this season, although there is no doubt that Upton has the potential to rip off an MVP calibre season. However, where the value differs is in the future - Prado is set to become a free agent after the 2013 season, so unless the D-Backs can arrange a long-term deal he could play just a single season for Arizona. On the other hand, Upton will be a Brave until 2016 at the earliest. Randall Delgado helps make up for this gap a little with his potential for being a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter, but he is no surefire. Overall, I think Atlanta win this trade. Upton is yet to fulfil his potential, and when/if he does, it's going to be an MVP-calibre season. He certainly has the ability to hit .300 with 35 homers and 25 steals, and perhaps the move to a new club and joining his brother will invigorate him.
What does it mean for everyone else?
Well, there are two players that this has an obvious effect on. The first is free agent Michael Bourn, for whom the number of competing teams with a gap in center-field is diminishing. The Rangers look like the most likely destination for him now. The second is young power-hitting right-fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who has also been touted by the Marlins as they completely revamp their squad. Few players in the game are as valuable as Stanton, and as David Schoenfield pointed out in a 'Sweetspot' post, a player of his calibre has never been traded in Major League baseball. Not many players in baseball history have had Stanton's incredible power at the tender age of 23. This Upton trade sets the market price for someone like Stanton, though I believe if he is going to be traded it would take at least 3 or 4 blue-chip prospects, and few teams have those kind of players.
On a lighter note, not long til pitchers and catchers report now! It's been a long, depressing off-season but Spring is around the corner, and with it we can stop speculating about impossible trades and start talking about everyday action.
Showing posts with label d-backs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label d-backs. Show all posts
Saturday, 26 January 2013
Thursday, 20 September 2012
How it stands: Two weeks to go
Two weeks have passed since my last post, and two weeks are left (well, 13 days) in the MLB season. In most ways this is cause for concern - how can it have passed so quickly?! - but in every other way this is the best time of the season. The previous 150 games can be thrown away now. Either you're in contention or you're not, and if you are in contention, then every game has to be treated like a play-off game. As the Red Sox and Braves found out last season, there are 162 games for a reason. Even if you're on top after 161 it means nothing if you've fallen out of it after the next day.
Some teams can almost guarantee their spots in October baseball. The Nats can be pretty confident that they will have a favourable advantage going into their NLDS series, and the Braves, Giants and Rangers can all feel confident that their season won't last just 162 games. After that the waters become a little murkier. In the AL, the East and Central continue to be gripping. The Orioles refuse to quit, more recently winning a marathon 18 inning game that lasted well into the early hours before following that up with another sapping 11 inning victory. Their extra-inning and one-run records continue to be impeccable. However, the Yankees are doing what the Yankees do best - they are playing the spoiler role. As the O's try and continue their fairytale story, the Yanks keep grinding out wins keeping themselves at the forefront of the AL East picture. The Rays meanwhile have fallen out of contention. The return of Evan Longoria unable to mask the clear hitting deficiencies as Cy Young type seasons from David Price and Fernando Rodney appear to imminently become fruitless. In terms of schedules, the Orioles enjoy a reasonably easy final 13 games, with 6 against the Red Sox and 4 against the Blue Jays. The Yankees have a tough 3 game set against the Athletics, but finish the season against the Twins, Jays and Red Sox. Sweeps are going to be the key to the title.
In the Central, the twists and turns continue to take place. After the White Sox swept the Twins and the Tigers were only able to take two from the tribe, the Sox followed that up with a crucial victory over the Tigers on Monday. However, an unbelievable couple of days of hitting from MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera has given the Tigers new life, with the bogey-team Royals holding up the resurgent Sox. The Tigers still stand two games out in the Central, and a wildcard spot looks to be out of the question. But if the astonishing hitting of Cabrera can continue, the Tigers still have a chance in this division. The Tigers will also have the benefit of enjoying a cosy final week of the season against the Royals(2) and Twins whilst the White Sox will have tough series against the Angels and Rays as well as two sets with the Indians. Calling a winner in this division will be impossible.
In the West, the Rangers continue to set the pace but the Athletics continue to churn out victories. They remain just 4 games back in the hunt for the division title, and 3.5 games ahead of fellow division rivals Los Angeles Angels in the wildcard hunt. Their young rotation and resurgent hitting has showed no signs of slowing, and should the Rangers slip up over the last 10 games, the Athletics will have no problems with filling in at the top of the division. They won't have an easy time of it however, facing the Yankees, Rangers(2) and Mariners in their last 4 series. The Rangers will also have a tough few series, facing the Mariners, A's(2) and Angels, so neither side will have an easy finish to the season. The Angels continue to slide out of the play-off picture, although they are still clinging on to a wildcard hope by a thread. They will face the White Sox, Mariners(2) and Rangers and need to win at least 10 out of 12 if they want to reach the playoffs.
The NL wildcard picture is no clearer than it was two weeks ago. The Pirates have faltered and fallen out of contention but their spot has been taken by the flying Brewers, who have finally sorted out their bullpen issues and are riding another MVP-calibre season from Ryan Braun. They are just 2.5 games out of the wildcard race, and unlike the Cardinals have momentum behind them. The Cards are stalling, and with the Dodgers and Brewers breathing down their necks must put together a strong final 2 weeks. The Phillies and D-Backs both still have a sniff of the wildcard, but it looks like they'll need a good slice of fortune if they want to work their way into October baseball. The Cards have a cushy pair of series' against the Cubs and Astros, but finish the season against the Nats and Reds. They'll want to have breathing room going into those games. The Brewers have it the other way around. They face a tough 6 games against the Nats and Reds, but if they can take 4 of 6 they'll be confident going into the final 6 against the Astros and Padres. The Dodgers will also face the Reds, but follow that up with the Padres and Rockies before finishing up against the Giants. The D-Backs are perhaps best placed for a late run, with 6 games against the Rockies and 3 games against the Cubs sandwiching a 3 game series against the Giants.
It's set to be a fantastic finish to the season, and whichever teams do make the post-season will have earned their spot - you don't come out on top after 162 games unless you're a good side. Once you hit the play-offs it's anyone's game.
On an aside, I thought I'd string together my award winners as I currently think would be fair...
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Fernando Rodney
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin
NL MVP: Buster Posey
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson
But there is still plenty of time for that to change. Feel free to disagree - I'd like to hear your thoughts!
Some teams can almost guarantee their spots in October baseball. The Nats can be pretty confident that they will have a favourable advantage going into their NLDS series, and the Braves, Giants and Rangers can all feel confident that their season won't last just 162 games. After that the waters become a little murkier. In the AL, the East and Central continue to be gripping. The Orioles refuse to quit, more recently winning a marathon 18 inning game that lasted well into the early hours before following that up with another sapping 11 inning victory. Their extra-inning and one-run records continue to be impeccable. However, the Yankees are doing what the Yankees do best - they are playing the spoiler role. As the O's try and continue their fairytale story, the Yanks keep grinding out wins keeping themselves at the forefront of the AL East picture. The Rays meanwhile have fallen out of contention. The return of Evan Longoria unable to mask the clear hitting deficiencies as Cy Young type seasons from David Price and Fernando Rodney appear to imminently become fruitless. In terms of schedules, the Orioles enjoy a reasonably easy final 13 games, with 6 against the Red Sox and 4 against the Blue Jays. The Yankees have a tough 3 game set against the Athletics, but finish the season against the Twins, Jays and Red Sox. Sweeps are going to be the key to the title.
In the Central, the twists and turns continue to take place. After the White Sox swept the Twins and the Tigers were only able to take two from the tribe, the Sox followed that up with a crucial victory over the Tigers on Monday. However, an unbelievable couple of days of hitting from MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera has given the Tigers new life, with the bogey-team Royals holding up the resurgent Sox. The Tigers still stand two games out in the Central, and a wildcard spot looks to be out of the question. But if the astonishing hitting of Cabrera can continue, the Tigers still have a chance in this division. The Tigers will also have the benefit of enjoying a cosy final week of the season against the Royals(2) and Twins whilst the White Sox will have tough series against the Angels and Rays as well as two sets with the Indians. Calling a winner in this division will be impossible.
In the West, the Rangers continue to set the pace but the Athletics continue to churn out victories. They remain just 4 games back in the hunt for the division title, and 3.5 games ahead of fellow division rivals Los Angeles Angels in the wildcard hunt. Their young rotation and resurgent hitting has showed no signs of slowing, and should the Rangers slip up over the last 10 games, the Athletics will have no problems with filling in at the top of the division. They won't have an easy time of it however, facing the Yankees, Rangers(2) and Mariners in their last 4 series. The Rangers will also have a tough few series, facing the Mariners, A's(2) and Angels, so neither side will have an easy finish to the season. The Angels continue to slide out of the play-off picture, although they are still clinging on to a wildcard hope by a thread. They will face the White Sox, Mariners(2) and Rangers and need to win at least 10 out of 12 if they want to reach the playoffs.
The NL wildcard picture is no clearer than it was two weeks ago. The Pirates have faltered and fallen out of contention but their spot has been taken by the flying Brewers, who have finally sorted out their bullpen issues and are riding another MVP-calibre season from Ryan Braun. They are just 2.5 games out of the wildcard race, and unlike the Cardinals have momentum behind them. The Cards are stalling, and with the Dodgers and Brewers breathing down their necks must put together a strong final 2 weeks. The Phillies and D-Backs both still have a sniff of the wildcard, but it looks like they'll need a good slice of fortune if they want to work their way into October baseball. The Cards have a cushy pair of series' against the Cubs and Astros, but finish the season against the Nats and Reds. They'll want to have breathing room going into those games. The Brewers have it the other way around. They face a tough 6 games against the Nats and Reds, but if they can take 4 of 6 they'll be confident going into the final 6 against the Astros and Padres. The Dodgers will also face the Reds, but follow that up with the Padres and Rockies before finishing up against the Giants. The D-Backs are perhaps best placed for a late run, with 6 games against the Rockies and 3 games against the Cubs sandwiching a 3 game series against the Giants.
It's set to be a fantastic finish to the season, and whichever teams do make the post-season will have earned their spot - you don't come out on top after 162 games unless you're a good side. Once you hit the play-offs it's anyone's game.
On an aside, I thought I'd string together my award winners as I currently think would be fair...
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Fernando Rodney
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout
AL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin
NL MVP: Buster Posey
NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey
NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson
But there is still plenty of time for that to change. Feel free to disagree - I'd like to hear your thoughts!
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