Fantasy: Pitchers to Avoid

Of course fantasy busts are not limited to hitters. The guys standing 60 feet away tend to be more prone to lengthy injuries, and can suffer shocking form swings from year to year (see Romero, Ricky). Who do I fancy suffering a loss of form this season?

Starting Pitchers - Jered Weaver, Gio Gonzalez, Chris Sale, Doug Fister and Matt Harvey

Jered Weaver is an ace; there is no denying that. The only reason he places in my list is the rank he is given. He is being taken around 7th or 8th for starting pitchers, sometimes higher, and I don't think he gives good value from that position. The main reason for that is his strikeout trend. Weaver struck out 142 hitters last year, which, whilst impressive, does not come close to matching those of the other aces. When Weaver is being taken before 200-strikeout guys like Hamels, Greinke and Lee I think he is being overrated. One reason he is ranked so highly is because you are paying for wins which, as we know, is impossible to guarantee. Sure he won 20 games last year and 18 the year before, but a regression towards 15 or even 12 is always possible, even with a line-up as potent as the Angels' behind him. He's a fly-ball pitcher which works in his favour at a large ballpark in Anaheim and with arguably the finest defensive outfield in baseball backing him up (Trout, Bourjos, Hamilton) so I don't think he'll struggle to get outs. I just think strikeouts are important when drafting your ace.

Gio Gonzalez took a huge step forward in 2012, improving his strikeout rate but more importantly reducing his walk rate. The former can be attributed to the move to the NL, whilst the latter is the main reason he was so successful. His walk rate of 9.3% is not superb, and is the main reason why I still have doubts, but the 207 strikeouts in 199 innings are legitimate. The other reason Gio looks set for regression is his home run to fly ball rate which was lower than should be expected in 2012, particularly given Nationals Park is not a pitchers haven. Gio will give you 200 K's and likely greater than 15 wins considering his team, but I expect a regression in his ERA and WHIP and so would warn you to stay away when pitchers like Bumgarner and Darvish are still available.

My concerns regarding Chris Sale almost entirely surround his health. He has a pitching motion that Keith Law described as 'the worst arm action on any big-league starter right now' and I'm concerned that he could break down at any moment. He was almost forced to move back to the bullpen early in 2012, and he was forced to miss a start with elbow soreness last year too. I think these kind of issues will plague Sale's entire career, and the possibility at DL time is stronger for him than any other starter. If you're willing to put up with that kind of risk then he's a good bet for strikeouts, decent WHIP and a strong ERA. I'm just too concerned that injuries are going to plague him.

Doug Fister is actually an underrated pitcher in my opinion, but talent on the mound does not equal talent in the fantasy world. Fister exhibits superb control, which means he has a sterling 1.79 walks per nine rate in his career. However, his stuff relies on sink, and as such he is not a big strikeout pitcher (somewhere around 150 K's would seem to be a good projection). His extreme ground-ball rate means that he should avoid giving up homers and keep his ERA in check but Detroit's woeful infield defense means his ERA and WHIP won't be as great as they should be. He might be more reliable over the course of the season than battery-mate Scherzer, but it's obvious which of the two has greater upside.

There's no doubt in my mind that Matt Harvey is set for a long and profitable major league career, but don't buy too much into his superb start with the Mets last season (including an electrifying debut). There is no doubt that he has fantastic stuff (just check out this fastball) but regression is sure to be in order. He has some control issues that need to be ironed out, and his 3.68 ERA and 1.31 WHIP from AAA last season show a stat line he is likely to normalise towards. He took Major League hitters by surprise with his devastating fastball/slider combination last season, but they will adapt quickly, so for every 6 inning, 1 run, 10 strikeout start he provides, there'll be a 4 inning, 6 run outing to go with it. If you're in a dynasty league, he's worth the hype, but I think he's being overrated in re-draft leagues.

Relief pitchers - Rafael Soriano, Joel Hanrahan and Ryan Madson

There's no doubt about it, Rafael Soriano is a highly talented relief pitcher who deserves a shot at the closer role for a contender having played second fiddle to Mariano Rivera for several seasons. However, you'd be foolish to think that Soriano is an elite closer. His K rate is actually worse than most major 9th inning men, although at around one strikeout per inning it is not woeful. His command in general is also far from elite, and I don't expect him to keep his ERA way below 3, so considering he's one of the first relievers off the board I'm leaving him alone.

Joel Hanrahan was traded to the Red Sox during the off-season, which in typical east-coast bias fashion meant he suddenly became more fantasy relevant. Hanrahan has been a closer for a couple of years now, but after a superb 2011 season, he regressed slightly last year although 36/40 for save chances is still elite. He'll strikeout hitters at a rate around 1 per inning, but last season control issues reared their head as he walked hitters at a rate worse than 4.5 per 9 innings. Moving to Fenway may give him a few more chances (but this is debatable) but the ballpark is definitely not going to help his WHIP or ERA and with a healthy Andrew Bailey breathing down his neck, Hanrahan may not have a long leash at all.

Finally, Ryan Madson will be the closer for the Angels this season after spending 2012 off the mound recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He was effective with the Phillies in 2011, but again his K rate is around 1 per inning which is fine, but not elite. His control is his greatest asset, but I have concerns about whether he'll miss enough bats to be effective for the Angels. With Ernesto Frieri so effective for large parts of last season, and Madson possibly missing the first couple of weeks of the season he may find himself consigned to a role that doesn't involve the 9th inning. He's high risk, and I'm not sure the reward would justify it.

Fantasy: Pitching Sleepers

Whilst trying to predict anything has a degree of uncertainty to it, predicting which hitters will have good seasons tends to be easier than picking pitchers. This is because hitters tend to have much greater control over their stats (they can suffer from terrible BABIP luck, but over the course of 162 games, most stat-lines normalise in the end). The opposite can occur for pitchers, primarily because one of the key fantasy stats - wins - is largely determined by the run support a pitcher gets. Cliff Lee was historically unlucky last season as his 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP carried him to a measly 6 wins whilst A.J. Burnett's 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP were enough for 16 wins.

But of course, that won't stop me from picking guys I think provide you with value!

Starting pitchers - Stephen Strasburg, Roy Halladay, Matt Moore, Lance Lynn, Josh Beckett

What?! Stephen Strasburg?! How can he possibly be a sleeper candidate? Yes, it's true he's ranked in the top 5 of pretty much anyone's starting pitcher ranks, and it's highly likely he's off the board within the first 2 or 3 rounds. But I still think he can provide tremendous value. Last years numbers (with an innings cap) were Cy Young quality, as he won 15 games with an ERA of 3.16 and WHIP of 1.15. His 197 strikeouts came at an 11.13 K/9 rate which is the best among starters. He gave up just 136 hits but hurt himself a bit with walks. This year, the shackles are off, and if he can reduce the walks he has an excellent chance at finishing the year as the number one fantasy pitcher. Whilst it's impossible to predict wins, it's hard to imagine him struggling when he's playing for the Washington Nationals. Strasburg is rated 24th on ESPN, but I think he could return top 15 value.

Prior to 2012, Halladay was automatic. Four straight seasons of more than 17 wins, an ERA under 2.79 and WHIP under 1.15. He'd struck out more than 200 in each season, and had compiled a mind-boggling 29.3 WAR in that time. 2012 provided a bump in the road however, as injuries cost him time and he was far from dominant when on the mound. His velocity has fallen in recent years, and there are good reasons to believe his days of Cy Young calibre performance are over. However, that's not to say that Halladay has fallen from fantasy relevance. He can still be a dominant pitcher on his day, and to ignore years of outstanding production because of one injury-plagued season would be foolish. He seems to have recovered during the off-season, and if he can come anywhere close to his 2011 performance then the 76th placed ranking on ESPN will be an absolute bargain.

After an enticing couple of late-season starts for the Rays in 2011, Matt Moore was a popular name on draft day in 2012. Ultimately, his rookie season was disappointing, as his 1.35 WHIP and 3.81 ERA were underwhelming. Control issues were his downfall, as 81 free passes were issued and he pitches just one game with zero walks. However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism. His fastball velocity was just fine, and this was part of the reason he was able to strike out 175 batters in 177 innings. He was also closely monitored by the Rays, who seemingly wanted to prevent him from taking on a huge workload. This season, he may have more innings to work with, and if he can control the walks, could strike out a batter-per-inning with an ERA in the low 3's. The upside alone is reason to take him before the 87th ranking he is given by ESPN.

Lance Lynn was a pleasant surprise for fantasy players last season, especially in the first half. His 18 wins were a bolt from the blue, and he was able to strike out more than a batter per inning. Late season issues with stamina and control saw him demoted to the bullpen, but a rotation spot is his for the taking this year, especially after Chris Carpenter's setback. There are some concerns that 2012 was a fluke, particularly in the wins department (it is extremely unlikely he repeats that total), but there are plenty of causes for optimism. Lynn has turned up for Spring Training 20 pounds lighter, which should allow him to carry a heavier workload and pitch deeper into games. The K's are certainly no fluke, and whilst the ERA and WHIP levels won't be elite, he looks like he is in fantastic shape and could prove a key cog both for the Cardinals and fantasy teams. He'll be drafted around the same time as Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Niese and Jon Lester - make sure you snap him up.

Finally we have the much maligned Josh Beckett. Beckett is believed to have been a big part of the spectacular failure of the Red Sox last year with his clubhouse antics, and his pitching struggled after a bounceback 2011. However, it is important to note that Beckett pitched a lot better when he was traded to the Dodgers. He owned a 2.93 ERA with them, and the strikeout rate was much improved. Whilst he is unlikely to repeat his 2011 success, pitching in Dodger Stadium will be a lot easier than Fenway, and the strong run support should be there. If he can continue doing what he did late in 2012, he could have real value from his ranking of 236 overall on ESPN.

Relief pitchers - Sergio Romo, Huston Street and David Hernandez

Having spent the best part of three seasons refining his craft as the best set-up man in baseball, Sergio Romo finally made the jump to closer at the end of the 2012 season and quickly established himself as one of the premier 9th inning men in the league. The Giants rolled with a 'closer-by-committee' set-up for the majority of the season, as Romo, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez picked up saves amongst others. In September and the post-season, Bochy began to lean towards the enigmatic Romo, and his faith was repaid as Romo was lights-out. With the departure of Brian Wilson, Romo appears to be the closer going forward, and armed with a devastating slider and immaculate control, he should be as good a bet as any to nail down any chances he is given. He'd rank easily as one of my top five closer options for this season; draft him at will.

Having spent three seasons closing out games at hitter-friendly Coors, Street made perhaps the biggest ballpark jump possible when he moved to the expansive confines of Petco Park. Street missed a month at the start of the season, and then missed six weeks in August and September. Staying healthy has been an issue for Street his entire career, but there is no doubting his stuff. He didn't blow a save all season in 2012 until the final game of the year. He had a miniscule ERA and WHIP and struck out guys at rate better than a K per inning. If Street can stay on the field he could provide top five value, so take advantage of his 17th placed rank among relief pitchers on ESPN.

Finally we come to a deep sleeper in David Hernandez. Hernandez has shown the kind of improvement that managers dream about over the past four seasons. In 2009 he had a 5.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, this improved to a 4.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2010, then a 3.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as part of an impressive 2011 campaign before becoming one of the finest set-up men in baseball in 2012 as he pulled a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on his way to 25 holds. He struck out an impressive 98 hitters in 68 innings thanks largely to his devastating slider: in 112 appearances ending in the slider in 2012, batters hit just .088 with 71 strikeouts. If you're in a league that counts holds he could be a key performer, and even if you're not then shaky early season outings from J.J. Putz could mean Hernandez is breathing down his neck for the closer job before long. Ranked 42nd among relief pitchers by ESPN, he is definitely worth a flyer at the end of drafts.

Fantasy: Hitter Sleepers

Pitchers and catchers have reported, and with them the buzz surrounding opening day is starting to increase. Of course for fantasy baseball players, the season starts well before opening day. Pretty much every fantasy site out there have their own rankings, and generally drafts will follow the rankings provided. The job of a wise fantasy player is to determine where the value lies - or in some cases doesn't lie. Fantasy is all about getting value from your draft picks.

To put this into context I'll use an example. Say you drafted both Miguel Cabrera and Chase Headley. Miguel Cabrera hit .330 with 44 homers, 139 RBI and was ranked in the top 3 of any player rater, regardless of scoring system. Chase Headley hit .286 with 31 homers and 115 RBI on his way to 14th on the ESPN player rater. Cabrera is clearly the better player. However, Cabrera was drafted in the first round of every single fantasy league. Headley would have been lucky to make a roster as his average draft position clocked in at 232.9. Cabrera is the better player, but Headley is the better value.

So who is this years Chase Headley?

Catcher - Salvador Perez

This is not the first and likely won't be the last time I mentioned this young man's name. Salvador Perez is the 22 year old catcher for the Kansas City Royals. Perez was on the periphery of the fantasy radar last season, but an injury meant he missed the start of the season and was often overlooked in drafts. Those managers canny enough to draft him or pick him up off the free agents profited. Perez hit .301 with a .328 OBP and provided a bit of pop with 11 home runs. Those stats were compiled over the course of 76 games, meaning over the course of a season Perez could have 20 home run power. Warning signs flash when you see that Perez draws few walks (just 12 last season), but his high average is fuelled by an astonishing strikeout rate. His 10.2% rate in the Majors is no fluke - it is right in line with his minor-league rate - and his 24.2% line-drive rate shows that he hits the ball often and hits the ball hard. He is listed at 6"3 and 240 pounds, so power is just starting to mature. If Perez can stay healthy, he will make an absolute mockery of his ranking as the 203rd overall player according to ESPN.

First baseman - Paul Konerko

Unlike Perez, Konerko's name is unlikely to be a trendy one on draft day. The slugger from Chicago is now 36 years old, and is surely on the back-end of his career. However, Konerko's skill set has never been one likely to regress with age. Ultimately, Konerko is unlikely to have a high ceiling, the seasons of 40 homers are probably in the rear-view mirror now but he is still an extremely reliable fantasy provider. He has hit greater than .298 and more than 26 homers each of the past 3 seasons, and he also draws a lot of walks meaning he is even more valuable in leagues that count OBP. Konerko will likely split time between first base and DH meaning injury risks should be reasonably limited. He's proved durable throughout his career, playing less than 142 games on just 2 occasions over the past 14 seasons. If he plays 150 games, he could well hit .300 with 30 home runs and 70 walks, which would be outstanding value from someone ranked 139th overall by ESPN, particular considering first base is shallower than usual this season.

Second baseman - Danny Espinosa

Traditionally, second base has been a weak fantasy position, and this year is no exception. The only complete player is Robinson Cano and he won't last past the first round. Kinsler is a bounceback candidate, but unlikely to provide value higher than the 3rd round. Guys like Zobrist or Phillips can provide reasonable all-round stats, but after that the going gets really tough. Danny Espinosa is someone I like as a late flyer, provided you have studs in other areas. Espinosa's average is a real eyesore (career average of .239), and whilst the walks are increasing there are no signs that the average is going to turn around any time soon. If you can get other high-average guys though, Espinosa can still provide real value in the counting categories. He hit 21 homers in 2011 and 17 last year, to go with 17 steals in 2011 and 20 steals in 2012. 20/20 ability is not easy to find nowadays, and playing in the vaunted Nationals line-up will help his counting stats. If you can handle an average around the .240 to .250 mark, and some deeply frustrating cold streaks, Espinosa could provide great value from his 135th overall rank on ESPN.

Third baseman - Aramis Ramirez

The 34 year old slugger is unlikely to elicit any attention on draft day, but might be a key cog in a championship-winning team. The move to Miller Park had little impact on his production, although hitting behind Ryan Braun brings obvious benefits. Power has never been hard to come by for Ramirez, but despite a down year in 2010 when he hit .241, he's kept his average above .289 in 8 of the previous 9 seasons. A .290 average and 25 home runs - where is the drawback? Well Ramirez doesn't steal many bases or draw many walks but his strikeout rate is manageable and if a few of the 50 doubles he hit last season fly over the fence (see Billy Butler 2011 and then Billy Butler 2012) then he could truly be an elite option at 3B.

Shortstop - Ian Desmond

2 for 2 for the Nationals infield. Desmond broke out in a big way last season, hitting .292 with 25 homers and 21 steals. This was despite missing 20 games that could possibly have made him one of the top options last season at SS. The average came as a bit of a surprise, but there is no reason not to think he can sustain an average around .270 or .280 with the possibility of repeating. Nationals Park is hitter friendly, so Desmond could hit 30 homers in that Nationals line-up, and the speed continues to be a surprising benefit for fantasy owners. I see a .270 average with 20 homers and 20 steals as the floor for Desmond, and you'll likely not get that kind of production from Hanley Ramirez. He's ranked 65th overall on ESPN but could easily provide value way above that ranking, especially considering the position scarcity.

Outfield - Matt Holliday, Melky Cabrera, Ichiro

Three outfielders, and hopefully a few that are spaced out in draft rankings. Matt Holliday makes the list for one simple reason: consistency. Matt Holliday has never had a batting average lower than .290. Over the last 9 years, he has never had an OBP lower than .379. He is a lock for 25-30 homers if he plays the full season, and batting third in a potent line-up should provide him with ample opportunity for RBI and runs. The only part of the scorecard Holliday won't fill up is the stolen bases department, but he is exactly the kind of player who will guide your team to a championship - let him make a mockery of his 47th overall ranking on ESPN.

Melky Cabrera certainly isn't the most popular name in the Major Leagues at the moment, when his MVP calibre season came to an abrupt halt in 2012 after he tested positive for PEDs. He served his suspension and has now signed with the potent Toronto Blue Jays. Regardless of his cheating ways, Melky was setting a hot pace in 2012, hitting .346 with 11 homers and 13 steals until his season was cut short. Whilst that inflated average will likely be unsustainable, Melky could be a good bet to hit around .300, and in the stacked Jays line-up, he could stack up some runs and steals. The 99th ranking on ESPN seems to be a little affected by the PED suspension - don't let that faze you.

Finally we finish with another veteran of the game in Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro was having a poor season with the Mariners until he was traded to the Yankees, but after that he looked like his old self, hitting .322 with 14 steals and 5 homers in 67 games. It's unlikely he'll hit well over .322 as his speed has faded with age, but Ichiro continues to have enough skills to be fantasy relevant. The main reason he could provide value is the stadium he plays in - the short porch in right field could turn hits that would be doubles at Safeco into home runs, so don't be surprised if he's able to hit 15 home runs. Don't expect MVP calibre stats from Ichiro, but at 193rd in the ESPN rankings, he can certainly provide value.

Fantasy: Pitcher Rankings

With the men standing at the plate sorted out in yesterday's blog post, let's now turn out attention to those atop the mound, 60 feet away. Pitchers tend to be separated into starting pitchers and relief pitchers in fantasy, so I'll give you my top 50 starters and top 20 relievers along with why I've ranked them where I have.

First up, the work-horses of a baseball team: the starting pitchers

1. Justin Verlander

2. Clayton Kershaw

3. Stephen Strasburg

4. Felix Hernandez

5. David Price

6. Matt Cain

7. Cliff Lee

8. Cole Hamels

9. Zack Greinke

10. Jered Weaver

A formidable top 10. Any of these guys will serve as an excellent ace of both your fantasy rotation and their respective team's rotation. I've gone with Verlander as number 1 overall because of his insane consistency. He's thrown over 200 innings in each of the past 6 seasons and has just become better and better through those seasons. This years stats were extremely comparable to his 2011 MVP performance, and there is no better bet in baseball for 250 strikeouts, 15 wins, an ERA under 3 and WHIP under 1.1. Draft him with absolute confidence. King Felix, Kershaw and an innings-cap free Strasburg should all be fantastic in 2012, and David Price will have no problem backing up his Cy-Young winning season with another dominant year atop the Tampa Bay rotation.

Matt Cain rightly earns his spot at 6th with a downright dominant year for San Francisco, the ERA and WHIP were minuscule and the increasing strikeouts make him a legitimate fantasy number 1. Cliff Lee had a freakish year in the 'win' column, but otherwise his performances were as good as they always are. Greinke, Hamels and Weaver should continue to be dominant aces for their respective teams, although I do think they are a drop-off in consistency from the top 7.

11. Johnny Cueto

12. Madison Bumgarner

13. R.A. Dickey

14. C.C. Sabathia

15. Yu Darvish

16. Chris Sale

17. Kris Medlen

18. Matt Moore

19. Max Scherzer

20. Adam Wainwright

Cueto had a dominant 2012 season, but pitching in a horrible home park pushes him outside my top 10. Young southpaw Madison Bumgarner had another excellent season for San Francisco, and at the age of just 23 he's still improving. Dickey is likely to regress a little, but as a knuckle-ball pitcher he is as immune to the effects of age as anyone, so don't be scared that last year was a fluke. Sabathia will continue to be a workhorse for the Yankees whilst Matt Moore should put together a fine campaign for Tampa Bay as strike-outs will come easily but he needs to get better at getting ahead in the count - the astronomic .389 BAA on a 0-0 count is cause for concern.

Darvish, Sale and Medlen are all pitchers I expect to push on from excellent 2012 seasons. Darvish and Sale have age and astonishing strikeout rates on their side, whilst Medlen's pinpoint accuracy is arguably the best in the major leagues. Scherzer could be a valuable sleeper in many leagues this year, his post all-star stats were on a par with rotation-mate Verlander, and it was only a horrific April performance that ruined his overall stats. He'll once again challenge for the Major League high in strikeouts.

21. Mat Latos

22. James Shields

23. Yovani Gallardo

24. Jordan Zimmermann

25. Roy Halladay

26. Jake Peavy

27. Aroldis Chapman

28. Hiroki Kuroda

29. Doug Fister

30. Brett Anderson

Latos should find a bit more consistency in the hitter-friendly confines of GABP this season, although his large spike in home runs last season from 16 to 25 is something owners will have to live with as a product of the stadium. Shields will be productive wherever he is playing, whilst Gallardo should be a consistent strikeout producer, even if you do have to live with the occasional shocking outing. Jordan Zimmermann had a quietly excellent season for the Nationals last season meaning he could go unnoticed in drafts. The strike-outs aren't elite, but his astonishing tendency to get out of trouble (.308 batting average against with none on/none out but .165 with men on and 2 outs or .105 with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs) is a key asset. Finally Roy Halladay struggled at the back end of last season, and his diminished velocity is cause for concern.

I expect Peavy to regress after a sensational 2012 season, but he still obviously holds value. Chapman would be a bit of an enigma if he joins the rotation as expected, but you can be sure he'll strike-out a ton. I think they'll limit his innings if he does start, but if last year is anything to go by then he could have extraordinary numbers. Kuroda and Fister were both quietly excellent in 2012, and could be steals in the draft whilst others go after big name players. Brett Anderson showed glimpses of brilliance after returning from injury, and whilst the injury and lack of strikeouts are cause for concern, his immaculate control should mean cold slumps are a rarity.

31. Brandon Morrow

32. Wade Miley

33. Josh Johnson

34. Ian Kennedy

35. Ryan Vogelsong

36. Dan Haren

37. Anibal Sanchez

38. Derek Holland

39. Jeremy Hellickson

40. Jon Lester

I'm all in on Brandon Morrow next season. After struggles with injury in his first few seasons, then a struggle with consistency, Morrow was putting it all together last year until an injury once again plagued him and kept him out for half the year. The strikeouts are a given with Morrow, and I think his control is greatly increased meaning the ERA should stay at a reasonable level. Miley had a superb season, but I don't expect him to repeat and Josh Johnson should find a modicum of consistency with the Blue Jays. Vogelsong continues to be a revelation in fantasy, with his ERA remaining one of the best in the Major Leagues.

Haren should bounce back with the Nationals this year, although if you're expecting a repeat of 2011 you may be disappointed. Sanchez had an excellent stretch with the Tigers, but he is still erratic and as such will struggle with some poor performances that dampen the brilliance of others. Holland and Hellickson are both talented young pitchers who should win as many games as they lose and help you out with ERA and WHIP. Hellickson is a bit of a gamble, because he has no strikeouts to fall back on if hitters start picking the change-up. Lester can't do much worse than last season, although his seemingly nonchalant attitude to his poor performances last season leave a lot to be desired.

41. Jarrod Parker

42. C.J. Wilson

43. Jonathon Niese

44. Matt Harrison

45. Tim Lincecum

46. Edwin Jackson

47. Jeff Samardzija

48. Trevor Cahill

49. Tommy Hanson

50. James McDonald

Parker was superb despite being given the pressure of the no.1 spot in a rookie-filled Oakland rotation, and he should be able to carry that success into 2013. C.J. Wilson had a season to forget in 2012, and whilst I don't think the inconsistency problems will be easy to shake off he could be a late-round sleeper. Matt Harrison's upside is limited due to the lack of strikeouts, but he continues to be extremely efficient for the Rangers and is a good late pick. Lincecum continues to be someone I'd stay away from despite his post-season success from the bullpen. He just isn't the same pitcher as he was three years ago, and two seasons of woeful performances have persuaded me he is nothing more than a gamble this year.

Jackson and Samardzija are both heavy on strikeouts but have little consistency, and whilst they may be worth a gamble they are far from reliable. Cahill and Hanson should have solid seasons, but as always they are liable to a bad performance or two. James McDonald had a disastrous second half, but makes my list by virtue of his pre all-star break performances - if he can reconjure some of that magic he could yet be fantasy relevant.

And with a long list of starters out of the way, we can move on to relievers

1. Craig Kimbrel

2. Aroldis Chapman

3. Jonathan Papelbon

4. Fernando Rodney

5. Sergio Romo

6. Rafael Soriano

7. Joel Hanrahan

8. Greg Holland

9. Huston Street

10. Casey Janssen

11. Addison Reed

12. Jason Grilli

13. Brandon League

14. Mariano Rivera

15. Ryan Madson

16. Jason Motte

17. J.J. Putz

18. Brian Wilson

19. John Axford

20. Carlos Marmol

Craig Kimbrel is the clear number 1, but after his massive 2012 campaign and recent reinstatement in the closer role, Chapman has just as much upside. Papelbon earns number 3 on my chart because of his history, but last season was a big disappointment for him. Fernando Rodney will regress but still be a shutdown closer in my opinion. Sergio Romo has the potential to be an absolute stud with that deadly slider, although the rumours about an innings limit are slightly worrying.

Rafael Soriano will get plenty of opportunities in Washington, although he has two quality relievers breathing down his neck. Joel Hanrahan has struggled with command in recent seasons, but should have a reasonably tight grip on the job in Boston. Greg Holland proved he has the stuff and the mettle to be an efficient 9th inning man for the Royals whilst Huston Street looks dominant every time he avoids the DL - maybe this year he avoids it completely. Casey Janssen was superb as the fill-in closer last year, and seems to have the job in front of Sergio Santos.

Addison Reed should improve with experience, and Jason Grilli will finally get a chance at the ninth inning after making himself a dominant set-up man. Brandon League is a good reliever, but one slip-up may see him replaced by the much more effective Kenley Jansen. Rivera is a high risk pick after the injury this year, but I would love to see him back on the mound baffling hitters in what will likely be his final season. The new Angel Ryan Madson closes out the top 15, although with Ernesto Frieri waiting in the wings his leash may be extremely short in Anaheim.

Motte may have ranked in the top five on this list were it not for a pre-season injury that has him possibly thinking about season-ending surgery. Putz always seems one blown save away from losing his job before pulling it all back together, although he undoubtedly has the stuff to get a lot of strikeouts. Wilson needs to find a job before becoming fantasy relevant again, and after a full season with no work he is a definite risk. One year removed from being one of the top closers in baseball, Axford was simply horrible this year as he blew save after save for the Brewers. His stuff suggests he should turn that around. Marmol closes out my list because he currently has the job in Chicago, but he may be traded to a team with a better closer or dropped in favour of Fujikawa at any moment.

So, there you have it. Looking back I may have got some of the placements wrong, but hopefully you get an idea of which kind of guys I like more than usual and which I would stay well away from. Some similar articles to come in the new year I hope, and if anything big happens from a free agent or trade standpoint then I'll be sure to post my opinions. As always, comments are welcome!

Fantasy: Hitter Rankings

One of the reasons I love baseball is the pure length of the season. I'm a big football, rugby and NFL fan too, but all those sports have small seasons with games at the weekend. Although they are more physically demanding sports, the same kind of commitment, perseverance and sheer fluctuations are not close to those in the world of Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, even with 162 games + a month of post-season action, you're still left with the depressing off-season over winter. Fortunately, I'm able to spend that time fantasising about free agency, trades and now fantasy baseball.

I've tried hard not to write any blog posts on fantasy, because I consider it a bit cheap and a bit easy. But then I remember that there are people who's jobs are based on fantasy sports - people I respect and have a lot of time for like Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell. So, I figured that nothing would block out the bitter cold from outside more than compiling a few lists. At each position I'll list the top 10 players and then briefly explain why they are in that order, and go through some notable inclusions or exemptions.

So, first off the board is catcher, arguably the most demanding position in all of sport

1. Buster Posey

2. Carlos Santana

3. Yadier Molina

4. Joe Mauer

5. Matt Wieters

6. Miguel Montero

7. Mike Napoli

8. Salvador Perez

9. Wilin Rosario

10. Jesus Montero

No surprises at number one, as Buster Posey will be a popular draft-day target in fantasy leagues coming off the back of an incredible MVP season. After that, I should point out, there is a significant drop-off. I simply don't feel confident at catcher this season, and not only because the position is so fragile in terms of injuries. Any between 2 and arguably 7 could warrant consideration to be the second catcher off the board. Santana struggled through the first half of 2012, before finishing off the season on a high. Molina was superb, and it's only by virtue of the fact defensive stats are not applicable to fantasy baseball that he is not higher. I'm not a big Joe Mauer fan, because his power is non-existent and he looks like he'll be playing in a weak Minnesota line-up. He should still be a good bet for a .300 average and 80 RBI/runs but temper any 2010 repeat expectations. 

Napoli struggled this year, but is still an excellent bet for 20 homers with the Green Monster to aim for. I rate Salvador Perez extremely highly. He had a stonking 88.7% contact rate which means a high average is extremely sustainable and he has hit well over .300 in every year of his minor league career. He is well built so I think the power will come, and a season at the heart of an improving Royals line-up could provide superb mid-round value. Wilin Rosario had a big 2012 for the Rockies, cranking a team rookie record 28 home runs. He's a big boy, and the power is legit, but I'm not as keen on him as some might be. Unlike Perez, he has an extremely high strikeout rate, and if teams start feeding him more breaking pitches the average might plummet. He's still got insane power potential though, so if you need home runs from your back-stop look no further. Montero struggled a bit in 2012 with a new team, but with the walls coming in at Safeco and him being given more time to accommodate to major league pitching I expect a solid season from the young hitter.

First base is a position usually associated with great depth, but that simply isn't the case this year...

1. Joey Votto

2. Prince Fielder

3. Albert Pujols

4. Edwin Encarnacion

5. Billy Butler

6. Adrian Gonzalez

7. Allen Craig

8. Freddie Freeman

9. Paul Goldschmidt

10. Eric Hosmer

Typically a position with superb depth, first base is a weak position in 2013, particularly if you want consistency. The top three are all interchangeable in my opinion, I expect Votto will continue to be dominant, hitting for a high average, drawing walks and knocking out homers at will. Whilst I expect Fielder's power to increase next season, I don't think the .300 average is particularly sustainable although the 30 homers and 100 RBI are exactly what you want from a first baseman. Pujols should put up his usual stat line, but a regression in average seems likely and 30 home runs rather than 40 is what to expect. After the first three there is a significant drop-off in my opinion, and I would place Buster Posey at 4th if I was including catchers with 1B eligibility. Encarnacion's power is legitimate, although a slight regression is probably in order particularly in batting average. A year in that suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up will do no harm though. Butler proved last year that he can hit balls over the fence as well as into them - he might be easier to get than most on this list too due to being criminally underrated because of his DHing in my opinion.

Adrian Gonzalez continues to be an enigma - he continues to hit solidly for .300 every season and the power surges he sometimes has only serves to make the dry streaks more maddening. The Dodgers line-up looks stronger than ever next season, so I expect him to put up solid numbers. Freeman, Goldschmidt and Craig are all guys who have significant upside - Craig crushed the ball when healthy last year, Goldschmidt is primed for a breakout (and he has speed) and Freeman will be playing in a stronger line-up than ever. Hosmer can be placed with guys like Ike Davis, Anthony Rizzo and Adam LaRoche in a group of high-risk, high-reward players. I like Hosmer to bounce back in a big way this year, so he makes my top 10.

And now moving on to the traditionally weak second base

1. Robinson Cano

2. Ian Kinsler

3. Dustin Pedroia

4. Brandon Phillips

5. Aaron Hill

6. Ben Zobrist

7. Jason Kipnis

8. Jose Altuve

9. Rickie Weeks

10. Chase Utley

Again, there is a clear division at this position. Robinson Cano is number 1 here - and it's not even close. Despite getting off to a poor start, Cano soon picked up and once again became the most consistent second base in the Major Leagues - oh and did I mention he's missed just 12 games over the last 6 seasons combined. Preference really determines who you pick next. Although Kinsler struggled in 2012 I've gone for him because of his power/speed potential. The poor average appears to be something you'll have to live with. Pedroia struggled with injuries a bit this year, but the average is just so reliable around .300 and his 20 homer/20 steal potential never hurts. After that it's a bit of a gamble. Phillips was fantastic for the Reds when Votto went down injured and he provided help in every fantasy category meaning he garners 4th spot. Aaron Hill was actually 2nd in fantasy points at 2B this year, and the only reason he isn't higher is because this is the first time power and average have combined for him.

Zobrist is another reliable fantasy performer, although he's been unable to match his breakout 2009. He won't hit more than 20 homers, steal more than 20 bases or hit for an average higher than .300. But at the same time there is no surer bet in baseball for 15 homers, 15 steals and a .280 average and his positional eligibility makes him attractive too. Kipnis is someone I'd avoid if possible. He provides great stats in the stolen base department, but hit just .257 with 3 homers combined in July, August and September. Altuve has great speed, but he's literally the only major league quality hitter in that line-up. Weeks has significant bounce back potential but that average could be an absolute killer. Utley might be primed for one more big season as the Phillies look to defy the age barrier.

So, on to another position of typical scarcity: shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki

2. Jose Reyes

3. Hanley Ramirez

4. Starlin Castro

5. Ian Desmond

6. Elvis Andrus

7. Asdrubal Cabrera

8. Alcides Escobar

9. Jimmy Rollins

10. Derek Jeter

Tulowitzki only played 47 games this year and he didn't set the world alight in the limited time he had. I know, this is a big risk, but in my opinion it is a risk well worth taking.  I still wouldn't take Tulowitzki until the second round, but I think he could be underrated because of this year. Across the three seasons before his low in average was .297 and in home runs was 27. Very few players, never mind short-stops in baseball can match that, so if Tulo can stay on the field for 150 games (not a given) he'll finish as the number 1 short-stop no doubt. That upside is so big, I'm willing to take the injury risk. The next 4 are pretty obvious, Castro is set for a big year and I think Desmond is another potentially underrated player - the power is completely legitimate although I don't know if he'll be so consistent.

As I've said, I think the Rangers would be wise to trade Andrus, although from a fantasy viewpoint staying at the top of their line-up is critical because steals and runs are pretty much his only commodities. I've never been a big Asdrubal Cabrera believer and I think last seasons 16 home runs are what to expect, not the freakish 25 from the year before. Escobar basically provides the same stats as Andrus but at a far cheaper price and both Rollins and Jeter are likely to regress but not enough to take them out of fantasy relevance assuming they stay injury free.

And, to complete the infield we head over to third base

1. Miguel Cabrera

2. Evan Longoria

3. Adrian Beltre

4. David Wright

5. Ryan Zimmerman

6. Chase Headley

7. Hanley Ramirez

8. Brett Lawire

9. Pablo Sandoval

10. Aramis Ramirez

Unlike the other infield positions, third base is once again very deep this year. Of course a repeat of his triple crown season is unlikely for Cabrera, but the fact remains that he is the best pure hitter in baseball. He will hit for a .300 average, 35 home runs, 115 RBI and he'll probably have change to spare too. Have no qualms drafting him number 1. I'm taking Longoria 2 despite the injury concerns, because I think he has an MVP season in him somewhere along the line and I'm going to want to ride it when it happens. Beltre is as consistent as they get at the hot corner, and Wright gets the nod over Zimmerman because of his consistency and surprising stolen base production.

This is where you know third base is deep, because MVP candidate Chase Headley is still on the board. Another criminally overrated player, I would have no hesitation before taking him over a big name like Ramirez. Spacious Petco limits his production, and I think 31 homers are unlikely to repeat, but Headley's performance this year was no fluke. Ramirez is another player I'd be happy to leave alone. His work rate is poor meaning he doesn't beat out ground balls he should, and he tends to get into frustrating slumps. He'll probably end up with 20 homers and 20 steals, but the average is going down and his temperament is not good. Lawrie is someone I preferred to leave alone with all the hype this season, but his speed/power combo contains a lot of upside so go after him this year. Don't overpay because of Sandoval's post-season performances, but if he can stay healthy all year he could turn a lot of heads.

So, now we turn it over to the outfield, which is obviously a lot deeper so I'll give you my top 30.

1. Mike Trout

2. Ryan Braun

3. Matt Kemp

4. Andrew McCutchen

5. Carlos Gonzalez

6. Giancarlo Stanton

7. Jose Bautista

8. Jason Heyward

9. Josh Hamilton

10. Justin Upton

11. Adam Jones

12. Matt Holliday

13. Austin Jackson

14. B.J. Upton

15. Yoenis Cespedes

16. Michael Bourn

17. Jay Bruce

18. Curtis Granderson

19. Jacoby Ellsbury

20. Bryce Harper

21. Shin-Soo Choo

22. Carlos Gomez

23. Josh Willingham

24. Alex Rios

25. Andre Ethier

26. Carlos Beltran

27. Nelson Cruz

28. Michael Morse

29. Josh Reddick

30. Melky Cabrera

Numbers 1 and 2 are clearly interchangeable on this list, I've gone with Trout because of the incredible power/speed/average potential although if you're expecting a 2012 repeat you may be a little disappointed. Don't be tempted to choose a sexy pick like McCutchen or Heyward over Braun - Braun is as consistent a player as they come and has proven he can hit 40 homers with or without Prince Fielder. Stanton is one to watch for me, his power potential is simply staggering. I expect Carlos Gonzalez to bounce back from a bit of a power drop in 2012 with the return of Troy Tulowitzki and he might drop down a few draft boards. Despite an injury-plagued season, Jose Bautista remains a top option, so again don't be scared to draft him. Temper expectations on Hamilton - in fact avoid if possible regardless of where he ends up. The way he ended the season left a sour taste in my mouth, although as always if he can stay on the field he will hit 30+ homers - just be prepared for icy cold droughts.

The second tier is a mix of high-upside and reliable guys. Again, Matt Holliday is not a popular pick that will have fellow draftees crowing in your genius, but he can win fantasy leagues with his reliability. The average is always above .290 and the home run totals always catch you by surprise. He'll be criminally underrated on draft day, don't miss out on him. I expect Justin Upton to bounce back, although I won't be spending a really early pick on him. Cespedes, B.J. Upton and Austin Jackson are all guys who could easily finish the season in the top 10, so are potentially bargains if you manage to predict which one has a monster season. Two guys I would avoid if possible are in the low teens - Ellsbury and Granderson. Ellsbury was dire even when on the field last season, and rumours the Red Sox are trying to sell him doesn't inspire confidence. Granderson is an astonishing beneficiary of the right field porch at Yankee Stadium, but his strikeout rate just continues to rise (195 this year) so the average could be a killer. Don't like that the steals have dropped off the table either.

Bryce Harper probably stands out at 20, but as he showed in glimpses this year he's simply a phenomenal talent. I think it'll take a couple of years for the average to come round and the strike-outs to fall, but his power is undoubtedly an asset and he's a risk worth taking if you want some pop. Choo is another 'boring' pick, someone from the Ben Zobrist school of baseball with reliability in the steals, power and average department but the distinct lack of upside. Rios will not repeat his 2012 season, but still provides a lot of value, as does Carlos Beltran who's skills may be fading but his 32 homers this year are certainly not to be sniffed at. Cruz and Ethier offer upside as bounce-back candidates, whilst I've begrudgingly included Melky Cabrera on this list because I think he'll help you out in a lot of categories atop a suddenly strong Blue Jays line-up.

So, there you have it. My 7th December hitters rankings and early thoughts. Not a whole lot that is off-the-wall, but probably a few areas to dispute over, so obviously comment below if you disagree or heck, maybe even agree!

Pitchers to come at some stage over the weekend I hope.