Fantasy: Pitching Sleepers

Whilst trying to predict anything has a degree of uncertainty to it, predicting which hitters will have good seasons tends to be easier than picking pitchers. This is because hitters tend to have much greater control over their stats (they can suffer from terrible BABIP luck, but over the course of 162 games, most stat-lines normalise in the end). The opposite can occur for pitchers, primarily because one of the key fantasy stats - wins - is largely determined by the run support a pitcher gets. Cliff Lee was historically unlucky last season as his 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP carried him to a measly 6 wins whilst A.J. Burnett's 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP were enough for 16 wins.

But of course, that won't stop me from picking guys I think provide you with value!

Starting pitchers - Stephen Strasburg, Roy Halladay, Matt Moore, Lance Lynn, Josh Beckett

What?! Stephen Strasburg?! How can he possibly be a sleeper candidate? Yes, it's true he's ranked in the top 5 of pretty much anyone's starting pitcher ranks, and it's highly likely he's off the board within the first 2 or 3 rounds. But I still think he can provide tremendous value. Last years numbers (with an innings cap) were Cy Young quality, as he won 15 games with an ERA of 3.16 and WHIP of 1.15. His 197 strikeouts came at an 11.13 K/9 rate which is the best among starters. He gave up just 136 hits but hurt himself a bit with walks. This year, the shackles are off, and if he can reduce the walks he has an excellent chance at finishing the year as the number one fantasy pitcher. Whilst it's impossible to predict wins, it's hard to imagine him struggling when he's playing for the Washington Nationals. Strasburg is rated 24th on ESPN, but I think he could return top 15 value.

Prior to 2012, Halladay was automatic. Four straight seasons of more than 17 wins, an ERA under 2.79 and WHIP under 1.15. He'd struck out more than 200 in each season, and had compiled a mind-boggling 29.3 WAR in that time. 2012 provided a bump in the road however, as injuries cost him time and he was far from dominant when on the mound. His velocity has fallen in recent years, and there are good reasons to believe his days of Cy Young calibre performance are over. However, that's not to say that Halladay has fallen from fantasy relevance. He can still be a dominant pitcher on his day, and to ignore years of outstanding production because of one injury-plagued season would be foolish. He seems to have recovered during the off-season, and if he can come anywhere close to his 2011 performance then the 76th placed ranking on ESPN will be an absolute bargain.

After an enticing couple of late-season starts for the Rays in 2011, Matt Moore was a popular name on draft day in 2012. Ultimately, his rookie season was disappointing, as his 1.35 WHIP and 3.81 ERA were underwhelming. Control issues were his downfall, as 81 free passes were issued and he pitches just one game with zero walks. However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism. His fastball velocity was just fine, and this was part of the reason he was able to strike out 175 batters in 177 innings. He was also closely monitored by the Rays, who seemingly wanted to prevent him from taking on a huge workload. This season, he may have more innings to work with, and if he can control the walks, could strike out a batter-per-inning with an ERA in the low 3's. The upside alone is reason to take him before the 87th ranking he is given by ESPN.

Lance Lynn was a pleasant surprise for fantasy players last season, especially in the first half. His 18 wins were a bolt from the blue, and he was able to strike out more than a batter per inning. Late season issues with stamina and control saw him demoted to the bullpen, but a rotation spot is his for the taking this year, especially after Chris Carpenter's setback. There are some concerns that 2012 was a fluke, particularly in the wins department (it is extremely unlikely he repeats that total), but there are plenty of causes for optimism. Lynn has turned up for Spring Training 20 pounds lighter, which should allow him to carry a heavier workload and pitch deeper into games. The K's are certainly no fluke, and whilst the ERA and WHIP levels won't be elite, he looks like he is in fantastic shape and could prove a key cog both for the Cardinals and fantasy teams. He'll be drafted around the same time as Anibal Sanchez, Jonathan Niese and Jon Lester - make sure you snap him up.

Finally we have the much maligned Josh Beckett. Beckett is believed to have been a big part of the spectacular failure of the Red Sox last year with his clubhouse antics, and his pitching struggled after a bounceback 2011. However, it is important to note that Beckett pitched a lot better when he was traded to the Dodgers. He owned a 2.93 ERA with them, and the strikeout rate was much improved. Whilst he is unlikely to repeat his 2011 success, pitching in Dodger Stadium will be a lot easier than Fenway, and the strong run support should be there. If he can continue doing what he did late in 2012, he could have real value from his ranking of 236 overall on ESPN.

Relief pitchers - Sergio Romo, Huston Street and David Hernandez

Having spent the best part of three seasons refining his craft as the best set-up man in baseball, Sergio Romo finally made the jump to closer at the end of the 2012 season and quickly established himself as one of the premier 9th inning men in the league. The Giants rolled with a 'closer-by-committee' set-up for the majority of the season, as Romo, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez picked up saves amongst others. In September and the post-season, Bochy began to lean towards the enigmatic Romo, and his faith was repaid as Romo was lights-out. With the departure of Brian Wilson, Romo appears to be the closer going forward, and armed with a devastating slider and immaculate control, he should be as good a bet as any to nail down any chances he is given. He'd rank easily as one of my top five closer options for this season; draft him at will.

Having spent three seasons closing out games at hitter-friendly Coors, Street made perhaps the biggest ballpark jump possible when he moved to the expansive confines of Petco Park. Street missed a month at the start of the season, and then missed six weeks in August and September. Staying healthy has been an issue for Street his entire career, but there is no doubting his stuff. He didn't blow a save all season in 2012 until the final game of the year. He had a miniscule ERA and WHIP and struck out guys at rate better than a K per inning. If Street can stay on the field he could provide top five value, so take advantage of his 17th placed rank among relief pitchers on ESPN.

Finally we come to a deep sleeper in David Hernandez. Hernandez has shown the kind of improvement that managers dream about over the past four seasons. In 2009 he had a 5.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, this improved to a 4.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2010, then a 3.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP as part of an impressive 2011 campaign before becoming one of the finest set-up men in baseball in 2012 as he pulled a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on his way to 25 holds. He struck out an impressive 98 hitters in 68 innings thanks largely to his devastating slider: in 112 appearances ending in the slider in 2012, batters hit just .088 with 71 strikeouts. If you're in a league that counts holds he could be a key performer, and even if you're not then shaky early season outings from J.J. Putz could mean Hernandez is breathing down his neck for the closer job before long. Ranked 42nd among relief pitchers by ESPN, he is definitely worth a flyer at the end of drafts.

Fantasy: Hitter Sleepers

Pitchers and catchers have reported, and with them the buzz surrounding opening day is starting to increase. Of course for fantasy baseball players, the season starts well before opening day. Pretty much every fantasy site out there have their own rankings, and generally drafts will follow the rankings provided. The job of a wise fantasy player is to determine where the value lies - or in some cases doesn't lie. Fantasy is all about getting value from your draft picks.

To put this into context I'll use an example. Say you drafted both Miguel Cabrera and Chase Headley. Miguel Cabrera hit .330 with 44 homers, 139 RBI and was ranked in the top 3 of any player rater, regardless of scoring system. Chase Headley hit .286 with 31 homers and 115 RBI on his way to 14th on the ESPN player rater. Cabrera is clearly the better player. However, Cabrera was drafted in the first round of every single fantasy league. Headley would have been lucky to make a roster as his average draft position clocked in at 232.9. Cabrera is the better player, but Headley is the better value.

So who is this years Chase Headley?

Catcher - Salvador Perez

This is not the first and likely won't be the last time I mentioned this young man's name. Salvador Perez is the 22 year old catcher for the Kansas City Royals. Perez was on the periphery of the fantasy radar last season, but an injury meant he missed the start of the season and was often overlooked in drafts. Those managers canny enough to draft him or pick him up off the free agents profited. Perez hit .301 with a .328 OBP and provided a bit of pop with 11 home runs. Those stats were compiled over the course of 76 games, meaning over the course of a season Perez could have 20 home run power. Warning signs flash when you see that Perez draws few walks (just 12 last season), but his high average is fuelled by an astonishing strikeout rate. His 10.2% rate in the Majors is no fluke - it is right in line with his minor-league rate - and his 24.2% line-drive rate shows that he hits the ball often and hits the ball hard. He is listed at 6"3 and 240 pounds, so power is just starting to mature. If Perez can stay healthy, he will make an absolute mockery of his ranking as the 203rd overall player according to ESPN.

First baseman - Paul Konerko

Unlike Perez, Konerko's name is unlikely to be a trendy one on draft day. The slugger from Chicago is now 36 years old, and is surely on the back-end of his career. However, Konerko's skill set has never been one likely to regress with age. Ultimately, Konerko is unlikely to have a high ceiling, the seasons of 40 homers are probably in the rear-view mirror now but he is still an extremely reliable fantasy provider. He has hit greater than .298 and more than 26 homers each of the past 3 seasons, and he also draws a lot of walks meaning he is even more valuable in leagues that count OBP. Konerko will likely split time between first base and DH meaning injury risks should be reasonably limited. He's proved durable throughout his career, playing less than 142 games on just 2 occasions over the past 14 seasons. If he plays 150 games, he could well hit .300 with 30 home runs and 70 walks, which would be outstanding value from someone ranked 139th overall by ESPN, particular considering first base is shallower than usual this season.

Second baseman - Danny Espinosa

Traditionally, second base has been a weak fantasy position, and this year is no exception. The only complete player is Robinson Cano and he won't last past the first round. Kinsler is a bounceback candidate, but unlikely to provide value higher than the 3rd round. Guys like Zobrist or Phillips can provide reasonable all-round stats, but after that the going gets really tough. Danny Espinosa is someone I like as a late flyer, provided you have studs in other areas. Espinosa's average is a real eyesore (career average of .239), and whilst the walks are increasing there are no signs that the average is going to turn around any time soon. If you can get other high-average guys though, Espinosa can still provide real value in the counting categories. He hit 21 homers in 2011 and 17 last year, to go with 17 steals in 2011 and 20 steals in 2012. 20/20 ability is not easy to find nowadays, and playing in the vaunted Nationals line-up will help his counting stats. If you can handle an average around the .240 to .250 mark, and some deeply frustrating cold streaks, Espinosa could provide great value from his 135th overall rank on ESPN.

Third baseman - Aramis Ramirez

The 34 year old slugger is unlikely to elicit any attention on draft day, but might be a key cog in a championship-winning team. The move to Miller Park had little impact on his production, although hitting behind Ryan Braun brings obvious benefits. Power has never been hard to come by for Ramirez, but despite a down year in 2010 when he hit .241, he's kept his average above .289 in 8 of the previous 9 seasons. A .290 average and 25 home runs - where is the drawback? Well Ramirez doesn't steal many bases or draw many walks but his strikeout rate is manageable and if a few of the 50 doubles he hit last season fly over the fence (see Billy Butler 2011 and then Billy Butler 2012) then he could truly be an elite option at 3B.

Shortstop - Ian Desmond

2 for 2 for the Nationals infield. Desmond broke out in a big way last season, hitting .292 with 25 homers and 21 steals. This was despite missing 20 games that could possibly have made him one of the top options last season at SS. The average came as a bit of a surprise, but there is no reason not to think he can sustain an average around .270 or .280 with the possibility of repeating. Nationals Park is hitter friendly, so Desmond could hit 30 homers in that Nationals line-up, and the speed continues to be a surprising benefit for fantasy owners. I see a .270 average with 20 homers and 20 steals as the floor for Desmond, and you'll likely not get that kind of production from Hanley Ramirez. He's ranked 65th overall on ESPN but could easily provide value way above that ranking, especially considering the position scarcity.

Outfield - Matt Holliday, Melky Cabrera, Ichiro

Three outfielders, and hopefully a few that are spaced out in draft rankings. Matt Holliday makes the list for one simple reason: consistency. Matt Holliday has never had a batting average lower than .290. Over the last 9 years, he has never had an OBP lower than .379. He is a lock for 25-30 homers if he plays the full season, and batting third in a potent line-up should provide him with ample opportunity for RBI and runs. The only part of the scorecard Holliday won't fill up is the stolen bases department, but he is exactly the kind of player who will guide your team to a championship - let him make a mockery of his 47th overall ranking on ESPN.

Melky Cabrera certainly isn't the most popular name in the Major Leagues at the moment, when his MVP calibre season came to an abrupt halt in 2012 after he tested positive for PEDs. He served his suspension and has now signed with the potent Toronto Blue Jays. Regardless of his cheating ways, Melky was setting a hot pace in 2012, hitting .346 with 11 homers and 13 steals until his season was cut short. Whilst that inflated average will likely be unsustainable, Melky could be a good bet to hit around .300, and in the stacked Jays line-up, he could stack up some runs and steals. The 99th ranking on ESPN seems to be a little affected by the PED suspension - don't let that faze you.

Finally we finish with another veteran of the game in Ichiro Suzuki. Ichiro was having a poor season with the Mariners until he was traded to the Yankees, but after that he looked like his old self, hitting .322 with 14 steals and 5 homers in 67 games. It's unlikely he'll hit well over .322 as his speed has faded with age, but Ichiro continues to have enough skills to be fantasy relevant. The main reason he could provide value is the stadium he plays in - the short porch in right field could turn hits that would be doubles at Safeco into home runs, so don't be surprised if he's able to hit 15 home runs. Don't expect MVP calibre stats from Ichiro, but at 193rd in the ESPN rankings, he can certainly provide value.