Fantasy: Pitchers to Avoid

Of course fantasy busts are not limited to hitters. The guys standing 60 feet away tend to be more prone to lengthy injuries, and can suffer shocking form swings from year to year (see Romero, Ricky). Who do I fancy suffering a loss of form this season?

Starting Pitchers - Jered Weaver, Gio Gonzalez, Chris Sale, Doug Fister and Matt Harvey

Jered Weaver is an ace; there is no denying that. The only reason he places in my list is the rank he is given. He is being taken around 7th or 8th for starting pitchers, sometimes higher, and I don't think he gives good value from that position. The main reason for that is his strikeout trend. Weaver struck out 142 hitters last year, which, whilst impressive, does not come close to matching those of the other aces. When Weaver is being taken before 200-strikeout guys like Hamels, Greinke and Lee I think he is being overrated. One reason he is ranked so highly is because you are paying for wins which, as we know, is impossible to guarantee. Sure he won 20 games last year and 18 the year before, but a regression towards 15 or even 12 is always possible, even with a line-up as potent as the Angels' behind him. He's a fly-ball pitcher which works in his favour at a large ballpark in Anaheim and with arguably the finest defensive outfield in baseball backing him up (Trout, Bourjos, Hamilton) so I don't think he'll struggle to get outs. I just think strikeouts are important when drafting your ace.

Gio Gonzalez took a huge step forward in 2012, improving his strikeout rate but more importantly reducing his walk rate. The former can be attributed to the move to the NL, whilst the latter is the main reason he was so successful. His walk rate of 9.3% is not superb, and is the main reason why I still have doubts, but the 207 strikeouts in 199 innings are legitimate. The other reason Gio looks set for regression is his home run to fly ball rate which was lower than should be expected in 2012, particularly given Nationals Park is not a pitchers haven. Gio will give you 200 K's and likely greater than 15 wins considering his team, but I expect a regression in his ERA and WHIP and so would warn you to stay away when pitchers like Bumgarner and Darvish are still available.

My concerns regarding Chris Sale almost entirely surround his health. He has a pitching motion that Keith Law described as 'the worst arm action on any big-league starter right now' and I'm concerned that he could break down at any moment. He was almost forced to move back to the bullpen early in 2012, and he was forced to miss a start with elbow soreness last year too. I think these kind of issues will plague Sale's entire career, and the possibility at DL time is stronger for him than any other starter. If you're willing to put up with that kind of risk then he's a good bet for strikeouts, decent WHIP and a strong ERA. I'm just too concerned that injuries are going to plague him.

Doug Fister is actually an underrated pitcher in my opinion, but talent on the mound does not equal talent in the fantasy world. Fister exhibits superb control, which means he has a sterling 1.79 walks per nine rate in his career. However, his stuff relies on sink, and as such he is not a big strikeout pitcher (somewhere around 150 K's would seem to be a good projection). His extreme ground-ball rate means that he should avoid giving up homers and keep his ERA in check but Detroit's woeful infield defense means his ERA and WHIP won't be as great as they should be. He might be more reliable over the course of the season than battery-mate Scherzer, but it's obvious which of the two has greater upside.

There's no doubt in my mind that Matt Harvey is set for a long and profitable major league career, but don't buy too much into his superb start with the Mets last season (including an electrifying debut). There is no doubt that he has fantastic stuff (just check out this fastball) but regression is sure to be in order. He has some control issues that need to be ironed out, and his 3.68 ERA and 1.31 WHIP from AAA last season show a stat line he is likely to normalise towards. He took Major League hitters by surprise with his devastating fastball/slider combination last season, but they will adapt quickly, so for every 6 inning, 1 run, 10 strikeout start he provides, there'll be a 4 inning, 6 run outing to go with it. If you're in a dynasty league, he's worth the hype, but I think he's being overrated in re-draft leagues.

Relief pitchers - Rafael Soriano, Joel Hanrahan and Ryan Madson

There's no doubt about it, Rafael Soriano is a highly talented relief pitcher who deserves a shot at the closer role for a contender having played second fiddle to Mariano Rivera for several seasons. However, you'd be foolish to think that Soriano is an elite closer. His K rate is actually worse than most major 9th inning men, although at around one strikeout per inning it is not woeful. His command in general is also far from elite, and I don't expect him to keep his ERA way below 3, so considering he's one of the first relievers off the board I'm leaving him alone.

Joel Hanrahan was traded to the Red Sox during the off-season, which in typical east-coast bias fashion meant he suddenly became more fantasy relevant. Hanrahan has been a closer for a couple of years now, but after a superb 2011 season, he regressed slightly last year although 36/40 for save chances is still elite. He'll strikeout hitters at a rate around 1 per inning, but last season control issues reared their head as he walked hitters at a rate worse than 4.5 per 9 innings. Moving to Fenway may give him a few more chances (but this is debatable) but the ballpark is definitely not going to help his WHIP or ERA and with a healthy Andrew Bailey breathing down his neck, Hanrahan may not have a long leash at all.

Finally, Ryan Madson will be the closer for the Angels this season after spending 2012 off the mound recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He was effective with the Phillies in 2011, but again his K rate is around 1 per inning which is fine, but not elite. His control is his greatest asset, but I have concerns about whether he'll miss enough bats to be effective for the Angels. With Ernesto Frieri so effective for large parts of last season, and Madson possibly missing the first couple of weeks of the season he may find himself consigned to a role that doesn't involve the 9th inning. He's high risk, and I'm not sure the reward would justify it.

Fantasy: Pitcher Rankings

With the men standing at the plate sorted out in yesterday's blog post, let's now turn out attention to those atop the mound, 60 feet away. Pitchers tend to be separated into starting pitchers and relief pitchers in fantasy, so I'll give you my top 50 starters and top 20 relievers along with why I've ranked them where I have.

First up, the work-horses of a baseball team: the starting pitchers

1. Justin Verlander

2. Clayton Kershaw

3. Stephen Strasburg

4. Felix Hernandez

5. David Price

6. Matt Cain

7. Cliff Lee

8. Cole Hamels

9. Zack Greinke

10. Jered Weaver

A formidable top 10. Any of these guys will serve as an excellent ace of both your fantasy rotation and their respective team's rotation. I've gone with Verlander as number 1 overall because of his insane consistency. He's thrown over 200 innings in each of the past 6 seasons and has just become better and better through those seasons. This years stats were extremely comparable to his 2011 MVP performance, and there is no better bet in baseball for 250 strikeouts, 15 wins, an ERA under 3 and WHIP under 1.1. Draft him with absolute confidence. King Felix, Kershaw and an innings-cap free Strasburg should all be fantastic in 2012, and David Price will have no problem backing up his Cy-Young winning season with another dominant year atop the Tampa Bay rotation.

Matt Cain rightly earns his spot at 6th with a downright dominant year for San Francisco, the ERA and WHIP were minuscule and the increasing strikeouts make him a legitimate fantasy number 1. Cliff Lee had a freakish year in the 'win' column, but otherwise his performances were as good as they always are. Greinke, Hamels and Weaver should continue to be dominant aces for their respective teams, although I do think they are a drop-off in consistency from the top 7.

11. Johnny Cueto

12. Madison Bumgarner

13. R.A. Dickey

14. C.C. Sabathia

15. Yu Darvish

16. Chris Sale

17. Kris Medlen

18. Matt Moore

19. Max Scherzer

20. Adam Wainwright

Cueto had a dominant 2012 season, but pitching in a horrible home park pushes him outside my top 10. Young southpaw Madison Bumgarner had another excellent season for San Francisco, and at the age of just 23 he's still improving. Dickey is likely to regress a little, but as a knuckle-ball pitcher he is as immune to the effects of age as anyone, so don't be scared that last year was a fluke. Sabathia will continue to be a workhorse for the Yankees whilst Matt Moore should put together a fine campaign for Tampa Bay as strike-outs will come easily but he needs to get better at getting ahead in the count - the astronomic .389 BAA on a 0-0 count is cause for concern.

Darvish, Sale and Medlen are all pitchers I expect to push on from excellent 2012 seasons. Darvish and Sale have age and astonishing strikeout rates on their side, whilst Medlen's pinpoint accuracy is arguably the best in the major leagues. Scherzer could be a valuable sleeper in many leagues this year, his post all-star stats were on a par with rotation-mate Verlander, and it was only a horrific April performance that ruined his overall stats. He'll once again challenge for the Major League high in strikeouts.

21. Mat Latos

22. James Shields

23. Yovani Gallardo

24. Jordan Zimmermann

25. Roy Halladay

26. Jake Peavy

27. Aroldis Chapman

28. Hiroki Kuroda

29. Doug Fister

30. Brett Anderson

Latos should find a bit more consistency in the hitter-friendly confines of GABP this season, although his large spike in home runs last season from 16 to 25 is something owners will have to live with as a product of the stadium. Shields will be productive wherever he is playing, whilst Gallardo should be a consistent strikeout producer, even if you do have to live with the occasional shocking outing. Jordan Zimmermann had a quietly excellent season for the Nationals last season meaning he could go unnoticed in drafts. The strike-outs aren't elite, but his astonishing tendency to get out of trouble (.308 batting average against with none on/none out but .165 with men on and 2 outs or .105 with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs) is a key asset. Finally Roy Halladay struggled at the back end of last season, and his diminished velocity is cause for concern.

I expect Peavy to regress after a sensational 2012 season, but he still obviously holds value. Chapman would be a bit of an enigma if he joins the rotation as expected, but you can be sure he'll strike-out a ton. I think they'll limit his innings if he does start, but if last year is anything to go by then he could have extraordinary numbers. Kuroda and Fister were both quietly excellent in 2012, and could be steals in the draft whilst others go after big name players. Brett Anderson showed glimpses of brilliance after returning from injury, and whilst the injury and lack of strikeouts are cause for concern, his immaculate control should mean cold slumps are a rarity.

31. Brandon Morrow

32. Wade Miley

33. Josh Johnson

34. Ian Kennedy

35. Ryan Vogelsong

36. Dan Haren

37. Anibal Sanchez

38. Derek Holland

39. Jeremy Hellickson

40. Jon Lester

I'm all in on Brandon Morrow next season. After struggles with injury in his first few seasons, then a struggle with consistency, Morrow was putting it all together last year until an injury once again plagued him and kept him out for half the year. The strikeouts are a given with Morrow, and I think his control is greatly increased meaning the ERA should stay at a reasonable level. Miley had a superb season, but I don't expect him to repeat and Josh Johnson should find a modicum of consistency with the Blue Jays. Vogelsong continues to be a revelation in fantasy, with his ERA remaining one of the best in the Major Leagues.

Haren should bounce back with the Nationals this year, although if you're expecting a repeat of 2011 you may be disappointed. Sanchez had an excellent stretch with the Tigers, but he is still erratic and as such will struggle with some poor performances that dampen the brilliance of others. Holland and Hellickson are both talented young pitchers who should win as many games as they lose and help you out with ERA and WHIP. Hellickson is a bit of a gamble, because he has no strikeouts to fall back on if hitters start picking the change-up. Lester can't do much worse than last season, although his seemingly nonchalant attitude to his poor performances last season leave a lot to be desired.

41. Jarrod Parker

42. C.J. Wilson

43. Jonathon Niese

44. Matt Harrison

45. Tim Lincecum

46. Edwin Jackson

47. Jeff Samardzija

48. Trevor Cahill

49. Tommy Hanson

50. James McDonald

Parker was superb despite being given the pressure of the no.1 spot in a rookie-filled Oakland rotation, and he should be able to carry that success into 2013. C.J. Wilson had a season to forget in 2012, and whilst I don't think the inconsistency problems will be easy to shake off he could be a late-round sleeper. Matt Harrison's upside is limited due to the lack of strikeouts, but he continues to be extremely efficient for the Rangers and is a good late pick. Lincecum continues to be someone I'd stay away from despite his post-season success from the bullpen. He just isn't the same pitcher as he was three years ago, and two seasons of woeful performances have persuaded me he is nothing more than a gamble this year.

Jackson and Samardzija are both heavy on strikeouts but have little consistency, and whilst they may be worth a gamble they are far from reliable. Cahill and Hanson should have solid seasons, but as always they are liable to a bad performance or two. James McDonald had a disastrous second half, but makes my list by virtue of his pre all-star break performances - if he can reconjure some of that magic he could yet be fantasy relevant.

And with a long list of starters out of the way, we can move on to relievers

1. Craig Kimbrel

2. Aroldis Chapman

3. Jonathan Papelbon

4. Fernando Rodney

5. Sergio Romo

6. Rafael Soriano

7. Joel Hanrahan

8. Greg Holland

9. Huston Street

10. Casey Janssen

11. Addison Reed

12. Jason Grilli

13. Brandon League

14. Mariano Rivera

15. Ryan Madson

16. Jason Motte

17. J.J. Putz

18. Brian Wilson

19. John Axford

20. Carlos Marmol

Craig Kimbrel is the clear number 1, but after his massive 2012 campaign and recent reinstatement in the closer role, Chapman has just as much upside. Papelbon earns number 3 on my chart because of his history, but last season was a big disappointment for him. Fernando Rodney will regress but still be a shutdown closer in my opinion. Sergio Romo has the potential to be an absolute stud with that deadly slider, although the rumours about an innings limit are slightly worrying.

Rafael Soriano will get plenty of opportunities in Washington, although he has two quality relievers breathing down his neck. Joel Hanrahan has struggled with command in recent seasons, but should have a reasonably tight grip on the job in Boston. Greg Holland proved he has the stuff and the mettle to be an efficient 9th inning man for the Royals whilst Huston Street looks dominant every time he avoids the DL - maybe this year he avoids it completely. Casey Janssen was superb as the fill-in closer last year, and seems to have the job in front of Sergio Santos.

Addison Reed should improve with experience, and Jason Grilli will finally get a chance at the ninth inning after making himself a dominant set-up man. Brandon League is a good reliever, but one slip-up may see him replaced by the much more effective Kenley Jansen. Rivera is a high risk pick after the injury this year, but I would love to see him back on the mound baffling hitters in what will likely be his final season. The new Angel Ryan Madson closes out the top 15, although with Ernesto Frieri waiting in the wings his leash may be extremely short in Anaheim.

Motte may have ranked in the top five on this list were it not for a pre-season injury that has him possibly thinking about season-ending surgery. Putz always seems one blown save away from losing his job before pulling it all back together, although he undoubtedly has the stuff to get a lot of strikeouts. Wilson needs to find a job before becoming fantasy relevant again, and after a full season with no work he is a definite risk. One year removed from being one of the top closers in baseball, Axford was simply horrible this year as he blew save after save for the Brewers. His stuff suggests he should turn that around. Marmol closes out my list because he currently has the job in Chicago, but he may be traded to a team with a better closer or dropped in favour of Fujikawa at any moment.

So, there you have it. Looking back I may have got some of the placements wrong, but hopefully you get an idea of which kind of guys I like more than usual and which I would stay well away from. Some similar articles to come in the new year I hope, and if anything big happens from a free agent or trade standpoint then I'll be sure to post my opinions. As always, comments are welcome!