Well, a quick look back at that post from March provides a few chuckles and shakes of the head. They certainly were bold predictions, and for that reason a lot of them now seem laughable. Without further ado, let's look back...
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
Hmm. Not my best call. Gallardo got off to a terrible start, struggling through April with a 6.08 ERA. He began to turn this around after that, and only in September did his ERA rise above 4 again. However, final counting stats of 204 IP, a 3.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, a 16-9 record and 204 strikeouts are (whilst good) not Cy-calibre figures. His strikeout rate is still excellent, but he needs to work on consistency. Time is on his side, but for me to ever make a prediction involving him and Cy Young again, he is going to need to put together a full season of brilliance.
2. The Red Sox don't make the play-offs (again)
An excellent call on my part! Not only did the Red Sox fail to make the play-offs, they also contrived to finish bottom of the AL East with a pitiful 69-93 record. Bobby Valentine suffered immensely at the helm, and the early trade of Youkilis was only the start of a number of high-profile exits, as a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett leave the club. Things can't get much worse for them in 2013, although they currently have a skeleton of a roster and will need to make big roster moves if they want to have a sniff at post-season baseball.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Almost a fantastic call. Sure, Stanton wasn't a nobody entering 2012, but his stock has risen immeasurably over the last 8 months as he put together a superb season for Miami. His final season total of 37 homers was not enough to challenge Miguel Cabrera's 44, but Stanton played just 123 games. Stanton may well have fulfilled this prediction but for an injury that sidelined him for the best part of a month and may have hampered him when he did take to the field. He is a physical freak, and despite playing in a massive stadium at the heart of a weak order he was one of the most punishing players in baseball. If he plays 160 games next season, he will smash this prediction - no way this seems all that bold now.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Hear that? It's embarrassment. Duda was horrible in 2012, failing to capitalize on what could possibly have been a full season at the heart of the Mets line-up. He started the season so poorly he was dropped to AAA in May, and failed to put it together whilst in the minors as evidenced by his weak final counting stats of .239 average with 15 homers and 57 RBI. The power has never been a problem, but Duda struck out far too much to hit for anything like a good average, and he will have to perform out of his skin in Spring Training if he wants to find himself on the Mets line-up card come opening day. Elite is a word bandied around far too much in my opinion, but in no realms of possibility could Duda be considered just that.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
From a terrible call to an excellent call. In the end, I fell just short in this prediction as the Nationals lost the 5-game NLDS and ultimately ended a superb year on a sour note. However, they finished the regular season with the best record in baseball, falling just shy of 100 wins. The pitching was the lynchpin of the side, and timely hitting from Zimmerman, Harper, Morse, LaRoche and Desmond among others made this team the best in the Majors, and they'll be bitterly disappointed they couldn't turn that into post-season success. However, they have a young side and should be a sure bet for another good year in 2013, it'll certainly be no bold prediction to see them play October baseball once more.
So there you have it. 3 excellent predictions and 2 extremely forgettable predictions. I had a lot of fun following these during the season, and will of course do the same thing in a few months time for 2013.
Thursday, 29 November 2012
Friday, 2 November 2012
Breaking down free agency
Although for players, fans and coaches the season has just ended, 2013 is now starting for the GMs of every Major League team. The building of a World Series champion starts now, and whilst some teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers) are perennial big spenders, it is often the shrewdest of moves that prove the most important.
Unlike last year, the number of 'big name' free agents is thin, with Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke heading the respective hitting and pitching classes. Other big names include David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Nick Swisher, Ryan Dempster, Adam LaRoche and Anibal Sanchez. As always there will be a number of trade rumours swirling too, not least around Arizona's young outfielder Justin Upton.
In terms of teams with money to spend, the Boston Red Sox have a huge amount of payroll free and several spots in a line-up to fill, so they may be active this winter. The Yankees are always looking to upgrade their roster, the Phillies will be active and you can expect both LA teams to try and build upon a high-spending 2012.
Josh Hamilton is perhaps the most intriguing free agent on the market. Aged 31, he's likely on the downward slope of his career, but as he proved in 2012 he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Off the field issues will always plague him, with his career almost over before it began due to alcohol and drug problems (see my blog post from a couple of years ago). Injuries are almost a guarantee with Hamilton too, and with his twilight years approaching, teams will be anxious that he spends more time on the field than off it. He'll likely command the highest price of all free agents too, but with good reason: in terms of raw upside there are few in baseball who can match him. His incredible power is simply unmatched, and in any ball-park he should be a lock for 30+ home runs as long as he garners 500 plate appearances. His fielding is much improved too, and he offers a good glove at any OF position, although at this stage in his career LF seems the most likely destination. I think any team would be foolish to offer him more than 3 or 4 years considering all of the question marks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see someone like the Yankees make a big money move.
Zack Greinke is another interesting name to watch during free agency. After a trade from the Brewers at the deadline this year, he was superb for the Angels in the second half and secured himself a lot of interest in the off-season. Off all the pitchers in free agency, Greinke is really the only 'ace' available, as he offers the possibility of 15-20 wins and 200 strike-outs for the next 5 seasons. Considering his fantastic half-season with them, I expect the Angels to do as much as they can to secure his services for another 3 or 4 years, but among others the Boston Red Sox are likely to be interested in him.
David Ortiz is an intriguing free agent should he hit the market. It was expected that the Red Sox would offer him another contract after two 1-year stints, but with nothing concrete yet, Ortiz may test the waters. Unlike most free agents, Ortiz is really restricted to the American League, as his services are really only useful from the Designated Hitter position. The Red Sox appear to be the best fit for Ortiz, although it wouldn't be surprising to see teams like the Angels or Blue Jays show interest. He's certainly a powerful bat that improves any line-up, and though his age is a minor concern, speed and defense have never been factors of his game, so he is about as oblivious to the effects as any player.
Two quality, young center-fielders are also likely to be popular names on the tongues of fans, as the speedy Michael Bourn and toolsy B.J. Upton will both be seeking new contracts and likely new homes this winter. Bourn enjoyed a spectacular season with the Braves, filling a big void as their lead-off hitter, and it is likely they will be keen to hold on to him for a few more years. B.J. Upton's time in Tampa Bay appears to finally have ended, and as far as upside goes, Upton could be an intriguing option, as his combination of speed, power and excellent defense make him a very attractive option for the top of a line-up card. I expect the Phillies to be interested in both players, with their center-field now vacant after the departure of Victorino.
On the mound, the pitching gets thin after Zack Greinke with the exception of Kyle Lohse. The 33 year old right-hander enjoyed the best year of his career in 2012 with the Cardinals, leading the NL in ERA for much of the season and ending up as one of the front-runners for the Cy Young award. His command has been impeccable, and for the team that ends up acquiring him, there should be a good few years of ace-quality pitching from Lohse. If Zack Greinke signs early, expect the price of Lohse to increase significantly as he becomes the best available free-agent arm, although at the moment teams may be looking for a bargain as the big-spenders hold out in the hope of getting Greinke.
My free-agent predictions
Josh Hamilton - Rangers (although if they don't resign him then Yankees)
Zack Greinke - Angels
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Mike Napoli - Marlins (although the Nationals would make sense in my opinion)
Kyle Lohse - Blue Jays
BJ Upton - Phillies
Michael Bourn - Braves
Delmon Young - Twins
Ichiro - Yankees
Nick Swisher - Pirates
Ryan Dempster - Orioles
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
Don't feel confident about any of them though...
Unlike last year, the number of 'big name' free agents is thin, with Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke heading the respective hitting and pitching classes. Other big names include David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Nick Swisher, Ryan Dempster, Adam LaRoche and Anibal Sanchez. As always there will be a number of trade rumours swirling too, not least around Arizona's young outfielder Justin Upton.
In terms of teams with money to spend, the Boston Red Sox have a huge amount of payroll free and several spots in a line-up to fill, so they may be active this winter. The Yankees are always looking to upgrade their roster, the Phillies will be active and you can expect both LA teams to try and build upon a high-spending 2012.
Josh Hamilton is perhaps the most intriguing free agent on the market. Aged 31, he's likely on the downward slope of his career, but as he proved in 2012 he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Off the field issues will always plague him, with his career almost over before it began due to alcohol and drug problems (see my blog post from a couple of years ago). Injuries are almost a guarantee with Hamilton too, and with his twilight years approaching, teams will be anxious that he spends more time on the field than off it. He'll likely command the highest price of all free agents too, but with good reason: in terms of raw upside there are few in baseball who can match him. His incredible power is simply unmatched, and in any ball-park he should be a lock for 30+ home runs as long as he garners 500 plate appearances. His fielding is much improved too, and he offers a good glove at any OF position, although at this stage in his career LF seems the most likely destination. I think any team would be foolish to offer him more than 3 or 4 years considering all of the question marks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see someone like the Yankees make a big money move.
Zack Greinke is another interesting name to watch during free agency. After a trade from the Brewers at the deadline this year, he was superb for the Angels in the second half and secured himself a lot of interest in the off-season. Off all the pitchers in free agency, Greinke is really the only 'ace' available, as he offers the possibility of 15-20 wins and 200 strike-outs for the next 5 seasons. Considering his fantastic half-season with them, I expect the Angels to do as much as they can to secure his services for another 3 or 4 years, but among others the Boston Red Sox are likely to be interested in him.
David Ortiz is an intriguing free agent should he hit the market. It was expected that the Red Sox would offer him another contract after two 1-year stints, but with nothing concrete yet, Ortiz may test the waters. Unlike most free agents, Ortiz is really restricted to the American League, as his services are really only useful from the Designated Hitter position. The Red Sox appear to be the best fit for Ortiz, although it wouldn't be surprising to see teams like the Angels or Blue Jays show interest. He's certainly a powerful bat that improves any line-up, and though his age is a minor concern, speed and defense have never been factors of his game, so he is about as oblivious to the effects as any player.
Two quality, young center-fielders are also likely to be popular names on the tongues of fans, as the speedy Michael Bourn and toolsy B.J. Upton will both be seeking new contracts and likely new homes this winter. Bourn enjoyed a spectacular season with the Braves, filling a big void as their lead-off hitter, and it is likely they will be keen to hold on to him for a few more years. B.J. Upton's time in Tampa Bay appears to finally have ended, and as far as upside goes, Upton could be an intriguing option, as his combination of speed, power and excellent defense make him a very attractive option for the top of a line-up card. I expect the Phillies to be interested in both players, with their center-field now vacant after the departure of Victorino.
On the mound, the pitching gets thin after Zack Greinke with the exception of Kyle Lohse. The 33 year old right-hander enjoyed the best year of his career in 2012 with the Cardinals, leading the NL in ERA for much of the season and ending up as one of the front-runners for the Cy Young award. His command has been impeccable, and for the team that ends up acquiring him, there should be a good few years of ace-quality pitching from Lohse. If Zack Greinke signs early, expect the price of Lohse to increase significantly as he becomes the best available free-agent arm, although at the moment teams may be looking for a bargain as the big-spenders hold out in the hope of getting Greinke.
My free-agent predictions
Josh Hamilton - Rangers (although if they don't resign him then Yankees)
Zack Greinke - Angels
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Mike Napoli - Marlins (although the Nationals would make sense in my opinion)
Kyle Lohse - Blue Jays
BJ Upton - Phillies
Michael Bourn - Braves
Delmon Young - Twins
Ichiro - Yankees
Nick Swisher - Pirates
Ryan Dempster - Orioles
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
Don't feel confident about any of them though...
SF Giants: The making of champions
Just 2 years after clinching a remarkable World Series championship in Arlington, the Giants returned to the biggest stage in baseball and won it all again, crushing the hapless Tigers 4-0 in what turned out to be an underwhelming finale. As in 2010, the Giants were given few thoughts at the start of the season, and start of the post-season, but they continued to show that it is not big names and lusty hitting that wins rings...
In the eyes of many, the lack of a potent line-up would always restrict the win likelihood for a team endowed with strong starting pitching. When Tim Lincecum contrived to suffer the worst season of his professional career, a repeat of 2011 looked all too likely, when run support was a constant problem for a feeble hitting line-up in a cavernous ballpark. However, despite the struggling ways of Lincecum and inconsistent pitching of veteran left-hander Barry Zito, the rotation remained one of the best in the Major Leagues. Ace Matt Cain continued his meteoric rise in the NL, becoming one of the best starters in baseball, as highlighted by his perfect game against the Astros. Young left-hander Madison Bumgarner continued his stellar career so far with a string of big performances whilst veteran rightie Ryan Vogelsong built on a strong 2011 to show that he had really turned his career around and become one of the most underrated players in baseball.
On the offensive side of the diamond, there were still considerable deficiencies. The remarkable comeback of Buster Posey from a harrowing injury suffered at the plate last season was made more astonishing by an MVP calibre performance with the bat, after a stunning 2nd half of the season propelled him to a batting title. Young third baseman Pablo Sandoval continued to prove that when he's hot, he's one of the best pure hitters in baseball, but plate discipline and defensive issues always held him back. Young first baseman Brandon Belt finally got a full season to himself in the heart of the Giants order and after a slow start, he turned it around to become one of the more consistent players in the line-up. The mid-season acquisitions of Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro proved pivotal, as the latter in particular had a sublime second half and post-season to become one of the first names on the team-sheet.
However, the real strengths of the team lay in defence and bullpen. Buster Posey was immaculate behind the plate despite worries he wouldn't be able to withstand the gruelling demands of a full season. Brandon Belt put in a gold-glove calibre show at 1st base, Marco Scutaro was excellent at second and Brandon Crawford was simply sublime at shortstop. The outfield was strong, led by superb center-fielder Angel Pagan who made the cavernous AT&T outfield his own. Although defense tends to be a stat that is easily overlooked on a game-to-game or series-to-series basis, the gulf in quality between the Giants and Tigers defense was evident in the World Series, when Giants infielders continued to rob the slow Tigers line-up. Out of the 'pen, Sergio Romo was simply unhittable all season in place of the injured Brian Wilson, and veterans like Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Casilla combined with the sublime decision by Bruce Bochy to put Tim Lincecum in the bullpen for the playoffs to make an extremely tough bullpen to hit.
Once again, the Giants were able to prove that 120 million dollar players do not make a team. Excellent starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, fantastic fielding and enough hitting can get the job done consistently, and when it comes to things like 'intangibles', the Giants seem to have them in excess. Not to mention the fact that AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful sports venues in the world.
In the eyes of many, the lack of a potent line-up would always restrict the win likelihood for a team endowed with strong starting pitching. When Tim Lincecum contrived to suffer the worst season of his professional career, a repeat of 2011 looked all too likely, when run support was a constant problem for a feeble hitting line-up in a cavernous ballpark. However, despite the struggling ways of Lincecum and inconsistent pitching of veteran left-hander Barry Zito, the rotation remained one of the best in the Major Leagues. Ace Matt Cain continued his meteoric rise in the NL, becoming one of the best starters in baseball, as highlighted by his perfect game against the Astros. Young left-hander Madison Bumgarner continued his stellar career so far with a string of big performances whilst veteran rightie Ryan Vogelsong built on a strong 2011 to show that he had really turned his career around and become one of the most underrated players in baseball.
On the offensive side of the diamond, there were still considerable deficiencies. The remarkable comeback of Buster Posey from a harrowing injury suffered at the plate last season was made more astonishing by an MVP calibre performance with the bat, after a stunning 2nd half of the season propelled him to a batting title. Young third baseman Pablo Sandoval continued to prove that when he's hot, he's one of the best pure hitters in baseball, but plate discipline and defensive issues always held him back. Young first baseman Brandon Belt finally got a full season to himself in the heart of the Giants order and after a slow start, he turned it around to become one of the more consistent players in the line-up. The mid-season acquisitions of Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro proved pivotal, as the latter in particular had a sublime second half and post-season to become one of the first names on the team-sheet.
However, the real strengths of the team lay in defence and bullpen. Buster Posey was immaculate behind the plate despite worries he wouldn't be able to withstand the gruelling demands of a full season. Brandon Belt put in a gold-glove calibre show at 1st base, Marco Scutaro was excellent at second and Brandon Crawford was simply sublime at shortstop. The outfield was strong, led by superb center-fielder Angel Pagan who made the cavernous AT&T outfield his own. Although defense tends to be a stat that is easily overlooked on a game-to-game or series-to-series basis, the gulf in quality between the Giants and Tigers defense was evident in the World Series, when Giants infielders continued to rob the slow Tigers line-up. Out of the 'pen, Sergio Romo was simply unhittable all season in place of the injured Brian Wilson, and veterans like Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Casilla combined with the sublime decision by Bruce Bochy to put Tim Lincecum in the bullpen for the playoffs to make an extremely tough bullpen to hit.
Once again, the Giants were able to prove that 120 million dollar players do not make a team. Excellent starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, fantastic fielding and enough hitting can get the job done consistently, and when it comes to things like 'intangibles', the Giants seem to have them in excess. Not to mention the fact that AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful sports venues in the world.
Saturday, 20 October 2012
LCS Breakdown
A week or so since my last post, and it's time for me to update on what is going on in the League Championship Series'. In the AL side of the draw, it was a very one-sided affair, with the Detroit starting pitching blowing away tame Yankee slugging on their way to a 4-0 sweep and a World Series berth. On the National League side, the Cards moved into cruise control after a big victory against Tim Lincecum, but an astonishing game 5 performance from Barry Zito has once again given San Francisco new life.
The Yankees-Tigers series was expected to be a close one, but in the end it was embarrassingly one-sided. A strong game one performance from Doug Fister appeared to have sealed an early series lead for Detroit before Valverde blew the 9th inning lead, giving up 2 run home-runs to Ichiro and late-inning hero Raul Ibanez. However, Delmon Young's 12th inning go-ahead double put the Tigers ahead for good. Game two followed a similar plot-line, but with no 9th inning Detroit implosion. Anibal Sanchez cruised through 7 scoreless innings and Phil Coke did the rest despite a superb 11 strike-out performance from Hiroki Kuroda. The Yanks needed to win game 3, and got no easy break going up against likely Cy-Young winner Justin Verlander, who continued his remarkable post-season with 8.1 innings of one-run pitching as Phil Coke nailed down another save. In the final game, the Yankees hitting woes continued, as Max Scherzer gave 6 strong innings and the bullpen did the rest on their way to a brutal 4 game sweep.
The story of the series was the Yankees hitting - Cano struggled his way to one of the worst post-season slumps in Yankee history, Granderson struck out in more than half his at-bats, Nick Swisher continued his horrible drought with runners in scoring position and Alex Rodriguez's well documented struggles led to his benching for the final two games of the series. Only Ichiro and Ibanez showed that they could put together any sort of good hitting at the plate, but I think the emphasis is being placed way too much on the Yankees' struggles than on the excellence of the Tigers pitching. The dominance of Verlander is no surprise, but the superb work from Fister, Sanchez and Scherzer were the defining performances from the series, as the Yankees could never adapt. As hot as they are now, it's hard to bet against them going into the World Series.
On the other side of the draw, the Giants and Cardinals started off a big NLCS series, with both teams proving in the divisional series that they are comeback kings. In game 1 the Cardinal bats got to Bumgarner early, and the bullpen held onto the lead to give them a big early advantage. A superb pitching performance from Ryan Vogelsong in game 2 proved the difference as the Giants tied up the series in a game that was marred by a hard slide from Matt Holliday at 2nd base that roughed up Marco Scutaro and gave the series an extra edge. Game 3 was huge in terms of impact on the series, and it was the Cards that came out on top after a superb performance from Matt Lohse and a clutch 2 run homer from bench player Matt Carpenter. Trying to tie up the series was Tim Lincecum for the Giants, who had seemingly put a disastrous regular season behind him after a number of superb bullpen pitching performances. However, he got beat up by the Cardinals as Adam Wainwright cruised to a game 4 victory and a commanding 3-1 series lead. The series seemed to be over with much-maligned left-hander Barry Zito on the mound the next day...
Having pounded left-handed pitching during the regular season and in the post-season, Zito was generally seen as a pitcher who would be lucky to make it through 4 innings. However, the soft-throwing 33 year old came up with the performance of his career, baffling and fooling the Cardinals with 7.2 scoreless innings in which he showed that location will always trump power. His astonishing performance allowed the Giants bats to heat up, and with the series now at 3-2 heading back to San Francisco, the pressure is on the Cardinals to perform in game 6 or be faced with a supremely confident and crowd-backed Giants side in game 7. This looks certain to be yet another superb series, and with their recent history for post-season heroics, you wouldn't want to put your money against St Louis, no matter how deep a hole they find themselves in...
The Yankees-Tigers series was expected to be a close one, but in the end it was embarrassingly one-sided. A strong game one performance from Doug Fister appeared to have sealed an early series lead for Detroit before Valverde blew the 9th inning lead, giving up 2 run home-runs to Ichiro and late-inning hero Raul Ibanez. However, Delmon Young's 12th inning go-ahead double put the Tigers ahead for good. Game two followed a similar plot-line, but with no 9th inning Detroit implosion. Anibal Sanchez cruised through 7 scoreless innings and Phil Coke did the rest despite a superb 11 strike-out performance from Hiroki Kuroda. The Yanks needed to win game 3, and got no easy break going up against likely Cy-Young winner Justin Verlander, who continued his remarkable post-season with 8.1 innings of one-run pitching as Phil Coke nailed down another save. In the final game, the Yankees hitting woes continued, as Max Scherzer gave 6 strong innings and the bullpen did the rest on their way to a brutal 4 game sweep.
The story of the series was the Yankees hitting - Cano struggled his way to one of the worst post-season slumps in Yankee history, Granderson struck out in more than half his at-bats, Nick Swisher continued his horrible drought with runners in scoring position and Alex Rodriguez's well documented struggles led to his benching for the final two games of the series. Only Ichiro and Ibanez showed that they could put together any sort of good hitting at the plate, but I think the emphasis is being placed way too much on the Yankees' struggles than on the excellence of the Tigers pitching. The dominance of Verlander is no surprise, but the superb work from Fister, Sanchez and Scherzer were the defining performances from the series, as the Yankees could never adapt. As hot as they are now, it's hard to bet against them going into the World Series.
On the other side of the draw, the Giants and Cardinals started off a big NLCS series, with both teams proving in the divisional series that they are comeback kings. In game 1 the Cardinal bats got to Bumgarner early, and the bullpen held onto the lead to give them a big early advantage. A superb pitching performance from Ryan Vogelsong in game 2 proved the difference as the Giants tied up the series in a game that was marred by a hard slide from Matt Holliday at 2nd base that roughed up Marco Scutaro and gave the series an extra edge. Game 3 was huge in terms of impact on the series, and it was the Cards that came out on top after a superb performance from Matt Lohse and a clutch 2 run homer from bench player Matt Carpenter. Trying to tie up the series was Tim Lincecum for the Giants, who had seemingly put a disastrous regular season behind him after a number of superb bullpen pitching performances. However, he got beat up by the Cardinals as Adam Wainwright cruised to a game 4 victory and a commanding 3-1 series lead. The series seemed to be over with much-maligned left-hander Barry Zito on the mound the next day...
Having pounded left-handed pitching during the regular season and in the post-season, Zito was generally seen as a pitcher who would be lucky to make it through 4 innings. However, the soft-throwing 33 year old came up with the performance of his career, baffling and fooling the Cardinals with 7.2 scoreless innings in which he showed that location will always trump power. His astonishing performance allowed the Giants bats to heat up, and with the series now at 3-2 heading back to San Francisco, the pressure is on the Cardinals to perform in game 6 or be faced with a supremely confident and crowd-backed Giants side in game 7. This looks certain to be yet another superb series, and with their recent history for post-season heroics, you wouldn't want to put your money against St Louis, no matter how deep a hole they find themselves in...
Friday, 12 October 2012
5 Things We've Learnt from the Divisional Series
Yup, another list. A simply unbelievable October of baseball so far, and every game that could have been played in the Divisional Series' will be played. We will get 20 games of baseball, and what an 18 games they have been so far. The Giants launched probably the greatest NLDS comeback since it was incepted, as the Reds were beat on 3 consecutive days at home for the first time all year. They were led, as always, by the unbelievable Buster Posey, who's grand slam and throwing out of Bruce at 3rd base were two of the biggest plays of the game. Meanwhile, the A's pitted momentum, cinderella-story and the will of a nation against Verlander. And Verlander dominated them. The O's won another extra-inning game to pull their series back to 2-2, and Jayson Werth capped off a 13 pitch, 9th inning at-bat with a walk-off homer.
So, without further ado - here's what we've learnt:
1. Baseball is amazing
Seriously. No other sport provides the same day-to-day drama, the knowledge that at any time a record could be broken, a play could do something so unbelievable it knocks the breath out of you. J.J. Hardy busting out of a slump to silence the Bronx. Jayson Werth cranking a mammoth walk off home-run. Buster Posey turning a 94 mph fastball around and into the upper deck in left field for a grand slam. Justin Verlander taking apart one of the most potent AL line-ups like he was playing a video game. What a sport.
2. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher we will ever see
'Justin Verlander can't pitch in the post-season'. 'He can't handle high-pressure games'. 'He only ever does well against weak line-ups'. Well guess what, in the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, Verlander threw a complete-game, 4 hit, 11 strike-out shutout of the Athletics in front of one of the best crowds in the Major Leagues, never mind millions of baying fans worldwide on tv. His fastball wasn't touching 100. But combined with a knee-buckling curve, off the table change-up and astonishing location, he simply dismantled the Athletics line-up. There is no-one better in the game right now, and I challenge whether we will see anyone with his kind of repertoire and ability in the next 50 years.
3. Home field advantage means nothing
If the Cardinals or Orioles clinch their respective spots in the championship series' tonight, it would match the post-season record of 5 road 'clinchers'. If they both win it would break it, before the CS and WS. Maybe the one-off 2-3 format is the reason - the team with the best record plays 2 games on the road before playing 3 on the trot back at home, but maybe teams have just found a way to negate home field advantage. Crowds are louder than ever before, but teams just aren't scared or intimidated by them.
4. Buster Posey is the National League MVP
There are two reasons for this. One is pure brilliance and another is pure wrong. There appear to be 4 possible candidates for the NL MVP. The two that bear comparison are Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Molina has long been one of the most underrated catchers in the Major League. In fact, I think he is criminally underrated - the most underrated hitter in the entire majors. However, I think this inability to recognise his offensive prowess is offset by the fact that his defense is overrated. Hear me out now. He is the best defensive catcher in the league - I'm not denying that. But the extent to which he is the best defensive catcher is debatable. His regular season fielding percentage of .997 was second only to Brian McCann who caught 170 less innings. He allowed just 38 steals and threw out an incredible 35 runners. Posey was worse - but not a lot. He allowed way more steals (87) although he threw out 38 runners and his fielding percentage was 6 ticks worse despite allowing just 2 passed balls. Not all of these stats are of course attributable to the catcher, things like steals can be put on pitchers too. With the bat, Posey's output has been greater - again, not as much as people like to think. He has a greater average, runs, RBI and home run number, but not so much that it becomes a non-contest. Both players are extremely comparable, but Posey wins in my opinion because offensive out-put is generally more valuable and easier to put down to one player and because he was for most of the season the only hitter in the Giants line-up.
The depressing part of this, is that really Ryan Braun had the best season in the National League. His .319 average was just .17 worse than Posey and 8 ticks worse than McCutchen. He stole 30 bases, being caught just 7 times - McCutchen (who is generally considered a speedier player) stole just 20 and was thrown out 12 times. Molina stole a surprising amount for a catcher but obviously not on the level Braun did. In terms of counting stats, Braun's incredible 41 homers led the National League despite a lack of line-up protection. His 112 RBI fell a close 2nd to Chase Headley but his .595 slugging percentage fell second just to Giancarlo Stanton. His fielding isn't terrific, but it isn't lousy either. On the basis of production, and worth to his side, Braun should have serious consideration for MVP but he won't, because the writers who vote for the award will still be sore about his drug scandal from last season - despite the fact that it has had no influence over this, arguably more terrific, season.
5. Ace > Depth
Much was made of the decision by the Washington Nationals to cut their phenomenon Stephen Strasburg's season short despite the fact he was one of the main reasons they were going to the play-offs for the first time in the young team's history. One of the key points made in defence of Mike Rizzo was that Washington has excellent pitching depth. This is undeniable - Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are all capable starters. But the divisional series' have shown that an ace is much greater than depth. The obvious example is Justin Verlander - he essentially carried his team into the ALCS with his two starts. On the flip side, Oakland had no obvious ace - Jarrod Parker is a good and highly talented young pitcher, but not someone you would want to entrust in a must-win game. The Giants rode 6 strong innings from potential Cy Young candidate Matt Cain to victory, as the Reds were forced to rue what could have been with their ace (Johnny Cueto) sidelined. Tonight's pitching match-up between Sabathia and Hammel seems to be a no-brainer. When it comes to winner-takes-all 5 or 7 game series, an ace is absolutely crucial. If you can get two wins from your key starter, then it makes the job incredibly simple for the other games - just win 2 of the other 5. That's why, despite all their struggles during the regular season, you could never count the Tigers out.
So, without further ado - here's what we've learnt:
1. Baseball is amazing
Seriously. No other sport provides the same day-to-day drama, the knowledge that at any time a record could be broken, a play could do something so unbelievable it knocks the breath out of you. J.J. Hardy busting out of a slump to silence the Bronx. Jayson Werth cranking a mammoth walk off home-run. Buster Posey turning a 94 mph fastball around and into the upper deck in left field for a grand slam. Justin Verlander taking apart one of the most potent AL line-ups like he was playing a video game. What a sport.
2. Justin Verlander is the best pitcher we will ever see
'Justin Verlander can't pitch in the post-season'. 'He can't handle high-pressure games'. 'He only ever does well against weak line-ups'. Well guess what, in the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, Verlander threw a complete-game, 4 hit, 11 strike-out shutout of the Athletics in front of one of the best crowds in the Major Leagues, never mind millions of baying fans worldwide on tv. His fastball wasn't touching 100. But combined with a knee-buckling curve, off the table change-up and astonishing location, he simply dismantled the Athletics line-up. There is no-one better in the game right now, and I challenge whether we will see anyone with his kind of repertoire and ability in the next 50 years.
3. Home field advantage means nothing
If the Cardinals or Orioles clinch their respective spots in the championship series' tonight, it would match the post-season record of 5 road 'clinchers'. If they both win it would break it, before the CS and WS. Maybe the one-off 2-3 format is the reason - the team with the best record plays 2 games on the road before playing 3 on the trot back at home, but maybe teams have just found a way to negate home field advantage. Crowds are louder than ever before, but teams just aren't scared or intimidated by them.
4. Buster Posey is the National League MVP
There are two reasons for this. One is pure brilliance and another is pure wrong. There appear to be 4 possible candidates for the NL MVP. The two that bear comparison are Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Molina has long been one of the most underrated catchers in the Major League. In fact, I think he is criminally underrated - the most underrated hitter in the entire majors. However, I think this inability to recognise his offensive prowess is offset by the fact that his defense is overrated. Hear me out now. He is the best defensive catcher in the league - I'm not denying that. But the extent to which he is the best defensive catcher is debatable. His regular season fielding percentage of .997 was second only to Brian McCann who caught 170 less innings. He allowed just 38 steals and threw out an incredible 35 runners. Posey was worse - but not a lot. He allowed way more steals (87) although he threw out 38 runners and his fielding percentage was 6 ticks worse despite allowing just 2 passed balls. Not all of these stats are of course attributable to the catcher, things like steals can be put on pitchers too. With the bat, Posey's output has been greater - again, not as much as people like to think. He has a greater average, runs, RBI and home run number, but not so much that it becomes a non-contest. Both players are extremely comparable, but Posey wins in my opinion because offensive out-put is generally more valuable and easier to put down to one player and because he was for most of the season the only hitter in the Giants line-up.
The depressing part of this, is that really Ryan Braun had the best season in the National League. His .319 average was just .17 worse than Posey and 8 ticks worse than McCutchen. He stole 30 bases, being caught just 7 times - McCutchen (who is generally considered a speedier player) stole just 20 and was thrown out 12 times. Molina stole a surprising amount for a catcher but obviously not on the level Braun did. In terms of counting stats, Braun's incredible 41 homers led the National League despite a lack of line-up protection. His 112 RBI fell a close 2nd to Chase Headley but his .595 slugging percentage fell second just to Giancarlo Stanton. His fielding isn't terrific, but it isn't lousy either. On the basis of production, and worth to his side, Braun should have serious consideration for MVP but he won't, because the writers who vote for the award will still be sore about his drug scandal from last season - despite the fact that it has had no influence over this, arguably more terrific, season.
5. Ace > Depth
Much was made of the decision by the Washington Nationals to cut their phenomenon Stephen Strasburg's season short despite the fact he was one of the main reasons they were going to the play-offs for the first time in the young team's history. One of the key points made in defence of Mike Rizzo was that Washington has excellent pitching depth. This is undeniable - Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler are all capable starters. But the divisional series' have shown that an ace is much greater than depth. The obvious example is Justin Verlander - he essentially carried his team into the ALCS with his two starts. On the flip side, Oakland had no obvious ace - Jarrod Parker is a good and highly talented young pitcher, but not someone you would want to entrust in a must-win game. The Giants rode 6 strong innings from potential Cy Young candidate Matt Cain to victory, as the Reds were forced to rue what could have been with their ace (Johnny Cueto) sidelined. Tonight's pitching match-up between Sabathia and Hammel seems to be a no-brainer. When it comes to winner-takes-all 5 or 7 game series, an ace is absolutely crucial. If you can get two wins from your key starter, then it makes the job incredibly simple for the other games - just win 2 of the other 5. That's why, despite all their struggles during the regular season, you could never count the Tigers out.
Saturday, 6 October 2012
NLDS October 6
Well, that was a wild first year for the new wildcard system. The Braves finally lost a game with Medlen on the mound, but it was not without its controversy. A call went their way early on, when David Ross was granted a very late time-out on a pitch he went on to strike out on. The pitch was thrown again and Ross plunked it into the left field seats. But the biggest call came in the 8th inning, when with men on 1st and 2nd, rookie Andrelton Simmons hit a shallow pop-up into left field. With the short-stop Kozma back-pedalling and left-fielder Holliday hurrying in, there was some confusion which ended with them leaving it for each other and allowing the Braves to load the bases. However, a second before the ball had hit the turf, left-field umpire Sam Holbrook had called on the infield fly rule, meaning that the batter was called out. The call was not a good one, the catch was clearly anything but regulation. However, the response by the Braves fans, who threw bottles and other debris onto the pitch, was undignified. The Cardinals went on to close the game out, although it was being played under protest.
The other game was less controversial, but no less surprising. Leftie Joe Saunders gave up just one run over 5.1 innings and the shut-down Orioles 'pen did the rest to leave me 0-2 from my picks so far. Soon to be free-agent Josh Hamilton received boos from the Texas faithful after striking out in his final at-bat, and the final 14 days of the season proved to be very forgetful indeed for the Rangers who perhaps got complacent atop the AL West.
But there's no rest in October, and we have the first games of the NLDS taking place today. In the first game we have a juicy match-up between the surprise AL West winners Oakland and the resurgent AL Central victors Tigers. The Tigers will send their ace, Justin Verlander, out to the mound to face off against one of the Oakland rookies - Jarrod Parker. The Oakland line-up has a tendency to strike out a lot, so Verlander may rack up some K's, but his post-season record in his career so far does not match up to his stellar regular season record. Parker has been the most reliable of Oakland's rookie rotation so far this season, but he will have his work cut out if he wants to shut down this red hot Detroit offense powered by triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera. The heralded A's power will also be limited by the spacious outfield of Comerica Park, so they may have to revert to more small-ball and base stealing if they want to score runs on Verlander.
My prediction: 5-3 Detroit
On the National League side of the draw, two NL heavy-weights will do battle in the late game. The Giants quietly put together an excellent season, with Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong making up for Lincecum's misgivings and Buster Posey compiling an MVP calibre season with the second half omission of Melky Cabrera. It will be the 28 year old right-hander on the mound for the Giants, who put together the best campaign of his career with 16 wins, a 2.79 ERA and 193 punch-outs as well as a perfecto back in June. However, he will have to face off against another Cy-Young candidate in the Reds break-out ace Johnny Cueto. The 26 year old right-hander has been superb for the Cincinatti side this year, putting together 19 wins and a 2.78 ERA despite pitching half his games in the most hitter-friendly park in the National League. Both line-ups are good without being destructive, and in the cavernous AT&T park this could easily turn into a fascinating pitchers duel. I'll give the nod to the Reds though, because their hitting is slightly stronger and their bull-pen can match-up to that of the Giants. Should be fascinating game though.
My prediction: 2-1 Cincinatti
The other game was less controversial, but no less surprising. Leftie Joe Saunders gave up just one run over 5.1 innings and the shut-down Orioles 'pen did the rest to leave me 0-2 from my picks so far. Soon to be free-agent Josh Hamilton received boos from the Texas faithful after striking out in his final at-bat, and the final 14 days of the season proved to be very forgetful indeed for the Rangers who perhaps got complacent atop the AL West.
But there's no rest in October, and we have the first games of the NLDS taking place today. In the first game we have a juicy match-up between the surprise AL West winners Oakland and the resurgent AL Central victors Tigers. The Tigers will send their ace, Justin Verlander, out to the mound to face off against one of the Oakland rookies - Jarrod Parker. The Oakland line-up has a tendency to strike out a lot, so Verlander may rack up some K's, but his post-season record in his career so far does not match up to his stellar regular season record. Parker has been the most reliable of Oakland's rookie rotation so far this season, but he will have his work cut out if he wants to shut down this red hot Detroit offense powered by triple-crown winner Miguel Cabrera. The heralded A's power will also be limited by the spacious outfield of Comerica Park, so they may have to revert to more small-ball and base stealing if they want to score runs on Verlander.
My prediction: 5-3 Detroit
On the National League side of the draw, two NL heavy-weights will do battle in the late game. The Giants quietly put together an excellent season, with Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong making up for Lincecum's misgivings and Buster Posey compiling an MVP calibre season with the second half omission of Melky Cabrera. It will be the 28 year old right-hander on the mound for the Giants, who put together the best campaign of his career with 16 wins, a 2.79 ERA and 193 punch-outs as well as a perfecto back in June. However, he will have to face off against another Cy-Young candidate in the Reds break-out ace Johnny Cueto. The 26 year old right-hander has been superb for the Cincinatti side this year, putting together 19 wins and a 2.78 ERA despite pitching half his games in the most hitter-friendly park in the National League. Both line-ups are good without being destructive, and in the cavernous AT&T park this could easily turn into a fascinating pitchers duel. I'll give the nod to the Reds though, because their hitting is slightly stronger and their bull-pen can match-up to that of the Giants. Should be fascinating game though.
My prediction: 2-1 Cincinatti
Thursday, 4 October 2012
Wildcard Previews
Though it feels like Mike Trout's season debut was last week, and that there's surely still time for the Orioles and A's to finally prove they're the Orioles and A's, the season is over. Another crazy season full of twists and turns, with the final day proving once again that if you don't play hard for 162 games, you may as well not bother. Not quite the drama and excitement of 2011's Game 162, but the Athletics astonishing comeback culminating in an AL West crown was a deserving prize for a simply astonishing season. The Yankees secured yet another AL East crown, and the enticing AL Wildcard play-off game was decided - Texas v Baltimore. Throughout this post-season I will attempt to post regularly with previews, write-ups and opinion, and if there's any kind of interest I may even try live-blogging a game...
So, onto the games. The first season with the new wildcard system looks like being a gripping one, with the one game 'winner-takes-all' mentality sure to be crushing for teams who will have their whole season potentially decided by a bad hop or missed call at first base. In the American league, the Rangers will find themselves playing in a game they would never have thought they would be competing in. Having dominated the AL West for 161 games of the year, they found themselves pipped to the post and forced to play an extra game to make their way into the play-off bracket once again. They will find themselves up against the red-hot Baltimore Orioles led by ex-Ranger Chris Davis who has been on a ridiculous homer-streak over the last week. Buck Showalter has taught his team to treat every game like a play-off, but there is no doubt that they will bring extreme intensity to Friday's match-up, and the Rangers would be foolish to take them lightly.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Rangers will have rookie sensation Yu Darvish taking to the hill for their critical game against a team he has not yet faced in his Major League career. After battling control issues for the first half of the season, Darvish has reigned in his walk rate and with it he has seen a marked improvement in his production. The effects of fatigue seemed to kick-in late in the season, and his ERA in fact is higher post all-star (4.26) than before (3.59). Although his sometimes erratic performances make him a risky starter, if anyone on the team could be called an ace it would have to be Darvish thanks to his astonishing strikeout rates. If the Orioles are patient then they have a chance to get Darvish out early, but if he has his control he could rack up the strikeouts and earn his team a massive W...
As for the Orioles, they will be turning to veteran left-hander Joe Saunders. He has plenty of experience against Texas, but none of it particularly inspiring - he has a 6.48 ERA in 11 starts there. The Orioles' starting pitching is perhaps weaker than that of Texas, but in this game they will simply be looking for 5 or 6 strong innings before handing the game over to the shut-down bullpen. Johnson has gone 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA and has the advantage of never facing the Rangers. They have arguably the most potent line-up in baseball, so it may well end up being a matter of which side can score more runs.
My guess - Rangers win 6-2
On the National League side of the diamond, it is two familiar foes. After having their season ruined by a resurgent September from the St Louis Cardinals last season, the Braves will be back for vengeance. They will have a strong wave of public support on their side due to the popularity of Chipper Jones who is playing his final games in the Major Leagues. Backed by able hitting from young sluggers Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward as well as speedster Michael Bourn, the Braves have been able to compile one of the best records in the NL. With a shutdown closer they will be tough to score against late on in games. However, St Louis have once again been silently good. Overshadowed by the Reds in the Central and without Albert Pujols, they have used timely hitting from players like Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and Carlos Beltran to fuel themselves once again into the World Series race, and as we know they can turn wildcard into ring very easily...
The Pitching Match-Up
The Braves will be sending arguably the most dominant pitcher in the game right now out to the mound for this critical game, with break-out star Kris Medlen getting the nod. Although he was originally supposed to be in the Braves 'pen as a reliever, his comeback from Tommy John surgery had proven successful and he got into the rotation in July. Since then, his rise has been meteoric, as he put together 40.1 innings without an earned. He is also part of a Major League record - the Braves have won 23 straight games that Medlen has started. Although his stuff isn't overpowering, his location and control is simply outstanding, and his change-up currently has a 'whiff' rate of 44% which is among the highest in the league for starting pitchers.
Facing a tough task for the Cardinals will be right-hander Kyle Lohse who has simply sparkled at the front of the rotation for the defending champions. Without veteran Chris Carpenter and a returning from surgery Chris Carpenter, there appeared to be a hole at the front of their rotation which Lohse has filled seamlessly. He has put together a Cy-Young calibre season, recording a 16-3 record and 2.86 ERA, quietly proving to be one of the best pitchers in the league. The Braves hitters have been struggling at the plate recently, and if anyone is going to be able to keep them stifled it will be the break-out young ace. I expect this to be a very low-scoring game, and critical things like errors and steals may prove decisive. Perhaps the biggest factor working for the Braves however is the mere fact that Medlen is on the mound - they will be hoping his astonishing 'win' streak will continue through October.
My guess - Braves win 2-1
So, there you have it. They should be a great couple of games (shame about the unsociable UK start times) and I don't think it would be an overstatement to say that the winner of either game could easily be viewed as a World Series favourite...
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