Bold Predictions
2013
2012
2012 Predictions Review
Trade Talk
Justin Upton trade
Three trades that make sense
Red Sox - Dodgers trade
Player Analysis
Justin Verlander in league of his own
Mike Trout - rookie phenom
Why Buster Posey is the MVP
Why Chapman should be in the rotation
Power Rankings
March Update
Early 2013 rankings
Other
Podcasts Overview
Breaking down free agency
Tuesday, 17 April 2012
Monday, 9 April 2012
Fantasy Overview
Rankings
Hitter rankings
Pitcher Rankings
Sleepers and Busts
Hitter Sleepers
Pitcher Sleepers
Hitter Busts
Pitcher Busts
Blind Résumés
Four Blind Résumés
Hitter rankingsPitcher Rankings
Sleepers and Busts
Hitter Sleepers
Pitcher Sleepers
Hitter Busts
Pitcher Busts
Blind Résumés
Four Blind Résumés
Friday, 6 April 2012
Division breakdown: AL East
So, with the baseball season underway following the 2 game series between the Mariners and As in Japan, I thought it would be time to update this blog more often and give it some more substance. As such, I'd started a 6-post series breaking down each division in the Majors starting with the American League East.
The AL East is a small division - just 5 teams - but a very competitive one. It consists of perennial World Series contenders Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees as well as Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Toronto, who have all improved massively in recent years. I'll do a team by team analysis, and then at the end how I expect the division to work out and which players will make a splash.
First off, the Baltimore Orioles. The club has been around as long as any team in the Majors, moving from Milwaukee to St Louis, and finally settling in Baltimore, where it has enjoyed most of its success. It has won three World Series' - 1966, 1970 and 1983, but since the retirement of future Hall-Of-Famer Cal Ripken in 2001, the franchise has struggled mightily, compiling losing records every season since 1998.
So, what went wrong? Well the club has a low payroll, particularly compared to high-spenders Red Sox and Yankees in the division, and as such rely on 'homegrown' players rather than big money signings. Their one notable signing of late was the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero from the Texas Rangers before the 2011 season to play DH, but after a woeful 69-93 season last year that left them bottom of the division, they'll be expecting more from their star slugger this year.
So, what for this year? Their strengths lie in hitting. Oriole Park promotes hitting as it is not huge, and hitters like Guerrero and Hardy should clear the wall several times this year. Star players can be found at center field in the form of Adam Jones the 26 year old hitter who had a career year last season, hitting .280 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI at the heart of the line-up. The other star hitter is 25 year old catcher Matt Wieters. Drafted 5th overall in the 2007 draft, Wieters was expected to be an all-star player in the Baltimore line-up. So far in his career he has failed to fully live up to expectations, but showed promising signs last season with a .262 average, 22 homers and 68 RBI. If he can put it all together this year, he could have an outstanding year for Baltimore.
However, Baltimore's weaknesses lie in their pitching. Without any real ace, the job of shutting down opposition line-ups is left to the likes of Jake Arrieta and Luis Ayala, and in such an offense-driven division, the rotation has struggled mightily over the last few seasons. The Orioles appear to have a strong minor-league system, but for the time being their woes look set to continue in the AL East.
So, next the Boston Red Sox. After showing the Yankees that they were more than willing to match their spending ways in the 2011 off season, many expected Boston to contend for the division, and maybe even the World Series. However, a season plagued with injuries ended in disaster, when they lost 18 of 24 games in September and inexplicably lost their grip on the AL wildcard to rivals Tampa Bay, finishing the season with a 90-72 record, and missing out on the postseason.
The strongest part of the team is without a doubt the batting line-up. The odd dimensions of Fenway Park do provide some benefit to hitters (particularly lefties), and the off-season additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford looked like being division-winning moves. Last seasons star was undoubtedly Jacoby Ellsbury, who smoked .321 with 32 home runs and 110 runs leading off the line-up for the Red Sox, showing unpredicted power for the entire season. He also contributed with 39 stolen bases, nowhere near his career high of 70, and so should be considered one of the most complete 5-tool outfielders in baseball. Gonzalez was also strong last season, hitting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBIs, and looks set to provide even more this season at the heart of one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Other new signing, Carl Crawford struggled in his first season, but looks set to bounce back this year. He is likely to be pushed up the order, particularly against right handers, and a move back towards a .300 average and 50 stolen bases looks likely for the speedster.
As for pitching, the Red Sox lost elite closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies over the off-season, and picked up Andrew Bailey from the As in a trade to fill that void. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz (coming back from injury) all look set to have 15 win seasons, but Lackey and Matsuzaka have it all to prove coming back from a weak season and a long injury spell respectively. Daniel Bard also looks set to complete his transition from bullpen to rotation, and if he can carry his power stuff over, he could be a good starter for Boston this year.
However, if there is any team in baseball that can rival the offensive power of the Red Sox, then it would have to be the neighbour New York Yankees. Boasting a line-up with offensive stars like Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson, the Yankees are never lacking in offensive capability. Despite injury to offensive star Alex Rodriguez, and the loss of key pitcher Cliff Lee in the off season, the Yankees had another fine season in the AL East, winning 97 games and topping the division before being upset 3-2 in the ALDS.
Their strength lies in hitting, and no-one exemplifies this more than Mr. Consistent Robinson Cano. 7 straight seasons with an average over .270, the RBI count has increased above 100 the past two seasons and home runs have also increased up towards 30. At a position starved of any depth, Cano offers average and power, and may find himself at the heart of the Yankee line-up this season. Teixeira and A-Rod will provide power and RBI, and Jeter and Gardner should easily find their way on base to be knocked home by the power hitters behind them. It is a strong line-up, one of the strongest in baseball.
However, the pitching is still a weak point. Ace CC Sabathia continues to be dominant at the Bronx, but other than the giant lefty, the Yankees lack any real power. Last season this area improved, with the breakout of young thrower Ivan Nova, and the addition of Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda over the off-season should solidify the rotation. Mariano Rivera will continue to close games well into his age-41 season, and will continue to do so with success. The Yankees should enjoy another season with 90+ wins, but if the pitching suffers a couple of injuries, rotation depth will be pushed to its limits.
The next team is the big unknown in the division. The Tampa Bay Rays enjoyed varied success last season, starting off badly with the loss of key slugger Evan Longoria, but with the maturation of key figures in the bullpen, the club put together a barnstorming second half of the season and managed to secure a wildcard spot on an incredible final day of the regular season. The team crashed out against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, but they still ended on a high.
Unlike the Yankees, the line-up is not the strong area of the Rays team. Their main threat and club leader Evan Longoria will enter the season again expected to provide average, power and RBIs at the heart of the Rays line-up, but the highly-talented third baseman is one of the few players in baseball who can fulfil such expectations. Breakout hitter Desmond Jennings will be expected to live up to his 5-tool hype and carry on where he left off before his post-all-star slump. Other figures like BJ Upton and Matt Joyce will need to contribute if the Rays want to launch a serious assault at the division.
The main reason why the Rays can be considered strong candidates for the division is because of their awesome rotation. Last year was a fantastic season for 30 year old 'veteran' James Shields, who earned the nickname Complete Game James after an unbelievable 11 complete games last season. He and 26 year old lefty David Price will be expected to provide quality starts regularly for Tampa Bay. The two young members of the rotation are arguably two of the hottest young pitchers in the league. First is sophomore Jeremy Hellickson, who last season won 13 games with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP to earn the rookie of the year award. A dip in performance is expected after astronomic luck on BABIP last season, but the kid is sure to improve. Finally is one of the top young players in the league, rookie southpaw Matt Moore. In his first start against the Yankees he kept them scoreless through 5 innings, striking out 11 on his way. He then dominated against Texas in the ALDS, proving he was ready to translate his stuff to the majors. If he can live up to half the hype, he'll be a lights-out pitcher for the Rays this year.
And finally, the Toronto Blue Jays. The 'inbetweeners' of the AL East at the moment, they have a good squad, but not good enough yet to really challenge for the title. Last year they went exactly .500 with 81 wins and 81 losses, which in their league simply isn't good enough. But the team is improving behind a good, young core.
On the offensive side, the clear leader is perennial home run champion contender Jose Bautista, who last season hit 43 homers, one season removed from mashing a franchise best 54. He'll provide huge power at the heart of the line-up, and up and coming star Brett Lawrie will hope to gain from a great start to his big-league career last season with a strong sophomore campaign this time around. The team has massive power potential, even without 'Joey Bats' with players like Edwin Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson and Adam Lind all capable of hitting 25+ home runs. The problem is finding a reliable player to get on base in front of these big hitters, and the acquisition of Colby Rasmus from the St Louis Cardinals last season failed to address this problem, at least so far.
In the rotation, the Blue Jays are growing in strength. They are led by ace Ricky Romero, who has quality pitches, but often fails to control it. When he's on his game, he can rival the best in baseball, but Toronto will look for greater consistency from him this season. He's backed up by strong young pitchers Brandon Morrow (who throws at 100mph consistently) and Henderson Alvarez (who will need to prove he has the stuff to play in the Bigs). In the bullpen they have a mixture of power and experience. The power is Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos, who will pitch at the back end of games and look to finish them off with powerful, strikeout pitches. The experience could come solely from Darren Oliver, the veteran left-hander who can call on 24 years of pitching experience but will likely be used in lefty v lefty situations this season.
So, who is going to end up where? I can't see past the Yankees winning the division unless they suffer key injuries in the rotation and bullpen. The Red Sox should be able to secure the wildcard this year, but they can't afford to slip up like last season, because the ever improving Rays will be snapping on their heels. If Tampa can keep players on the field and morale in the clubhouse high, they are the kind of team that could go on a long run that may well end up with a playoff spot. The Blue Jays will again improve, and might have a good run at the title next season, but they and the Orioles will be battling it out for 4th place again this season, as they suffer the misfortune of being placed in one of the toughest leagues in baseball.
Players to watch out for? I'll give you one from each team. From the Orioles, Matt Wieters. I finally back him to have a breakout season and be the bright spark in an otherwise drab lineup. 25 HRs and 80 RBI shouldn't be out of his reach. From the Red Sox, Adrian Gonzalez. I know what you're thinking, 'wow, big call there' but I think Gonzalez has a lot more to offer this season at Fenway. He could have easily added another 10 homers and 20 RBI to last years tally with a few more hits to right field, and I think he'll do that this year. From the Yankees, I'll back the old reliable Mariano Rivera to prove he's not out of gas yet with another superb season closing out games. Expect 40 or more from this once-in-a-lifetime player to cement his status as the greatest of all time. From the Rays I fancy Matt Moore to show he's the real deal and win Rookie of the Year with a 15 win, 200 K's season from the Rays rotation. He's a bit of a mystery at the moment, as we need to tell whether he can adjust to going through the same lineup 4 or 5 times, but if the Rays staff are to be believed, he's got the stuff to do it. And finally, from the Blue Jays I think Brett Lawrie will continue his star-studded start to his Major League career with a fine performance in his first full season. Something along the lines of 25 HR, 80 RBI and 25 steals wouldn't be out of reach for him.
The AL East is a small division - just 5 teams - but a very competitive one. It consists of perennial World Series contenders Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees as well as Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Toronto, who have all improved massively in recent years. I'll do a team by team analysis, and then at the end how I expect the division to work out and which players will make a splash.
First off, the Baltimore Orioles. The club has been around as long as any team in the Majors, moving from Milwaukee to St Louis, and finally settling in Baltimore, where it has enjoyed most of its success. It has won three World Series' - 1966, 1970 and 1983, but since the retirement of future Hall-Of-Famer Cal Ripken in 2001, the franchise has struggled mightily, compiling losing records every season since 1998.
So, what went wrong? Well the club has a low payroll, particularly compared to high-spenders Red Sox and Yankees in the division, and as such rely on 'homegrown' players rather than big money signings. Their one notable signing of late was the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero from the Texas Rangers before the 2011 season to play DH, but after a woeful 69-93 season last year that left them bottom of the division, they'll be expecting more from their star slugger this year.
So, what for this year? Their strengths lie in hitting. Oriole Park promotes hitting as it is not huge, and hitters like Guerrero and Hardy should clear the wall several times this year. Star players can be found at center field in the form of Adam Jones the 26 year old hitter who had a career year last season, hitting .280 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI at the heart of the line-up. The other star hitter is 25 year old catcher Matt Wieters. Drafted 5th overall in the 2007 draft, Wieters was expected to be an all-star player in the Baltimore line-up. So far in his career he has failed to fully live up to expectations, but showed promising signs last season with a .262 average, 22 homers and 68 RBI. If he can put it all together this year, he could have an outstanding year for Baltimore.
However, Baltimore's weaknesses lie in their pitching. Without any real ace, the job of shutting down opposition line-ups is left to the likes of Jake Arrieta and Luis Ayala, and in such an offense-driven division, the rotation has struggled mightily over the last few seasons. The Orioles appear to have a strong minor-league system, but for the time being their woes look set to continue in the AL East.
So, next the Boston Red Sox. After showing the Yankees that they were more than willing to match their spending ways in the 2011 off season, many expected Boston to contend for the division, and maybe even the World Series. However, a season plagued with injuries ended in disaster, when they lost 18 of 24 games in September and inexplicably lost their grip on the AL wildcard to rivals Tampa Bay, finishing the season with a 90-72 record, and missing out on the postseason.
The strongest part of the team is without a doubt the batting line-up. The odd dimensions of Fenway Park do provide some benefit to hitters (particularly lefties), and the off-season additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford looked like being division-winning moves. Last seasons star was undoubtedly Jacoby Ellsbury, who smoked .321 with 32 home runs and 110 runs leading off the line-up for the Red Sox, showing unpredicted power for the entire season. He also contributed with 39 stolen bases, nowhere near his career high of 70, and so should be considered one of the most complete 5-tool outfielders in baseball. Gonzalez was also strong last season, hitting .338 with 27 homers and 117 RBIs, and looks set to provide even more this season at the heart of one of the strongest line-ups in baseball. Other new signing, Carl Crawford struggled in his first season, but looks set to bounce back this year. He is likely to be pushed up the order, particularly against right handers, and a move back towards a .300 average and 50 stolen bases looks likely for the speedster.
As for pitching, the Red Sox lost elite closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies over the off-season, and picked up Andrew Bailey from the As in a trade to fill that void. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz (coming back from injury) all look set to have 15 win seasons, but Lackey and Matsuzaka have it all to prove coming back from a weak season and a long injury spell respectively. Daniel Bard also looks set to complete his transition from bullpen to rotation, and if he can carry his power stuff over, he could be a good starter for Boston this year.
However, if there is any team in baseball that can rival the offensive power of the Red Sox, then it would have to be the neighbour New York Yankees. Boasting a line-up with offensive stars like Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson, the Yankees are never lacking in offensive capability. Despite injury to offensive star Alex Rodriguez, and the loss of key pitcher Cliff Lee in the off season, the Yankees had another fine season in the AL East, winning 97 games and topping the division before being upset 3-2 in the ALDS.
Their strength lies in hitting, and no-one exemplifies this more than Mr. Consistent Robinson Cano. 7 straight seasons with an average over .270, the RBI count has increased above 100 the past two seasons and home runs have also increased up towards 30. At a position starved of any depth, Cano offers average and power, and may find himself at the heart of the Yankee line-up this season. Teixeira and A-Rod will provide power and RBI, and Jeter and Gardner should easily find their way on base to be knocked home by the power hitters behind them. It is a strong line-up, one of the strongest in baseball.
However, the pitching is still a weak point. Ace CC Sabathia continues to be dominant at the Bronx, but other than the giant lefty, the Yankees lack any real power. Last season this area improved, with the breakout of young thrower Ivan Nova, and the addition of Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda over the off-season should solidify the rotation. Mariano Rivera will continue to close games well into his age-41 season, and will continue to do so with success. The Yankees should enjoy another season with 90+ wins, but if the pitching suffers a couple of injuries, rotation depth will be pushed to its limits.
The next team is the big unknown in the division. The Tampa Bay Rays enjoyed varied success last season, starting off badly with the loss of key slugger Evan Longoria, but with the maturation of key figures in the bullpen, the club put together a barnstorming second half of the season and managed to secure a wildcard spot on an incredible final day of the regular season. The team crashed out against the Texas Rangers in the ALDS, but they still ended on a high.
Unlike the Yankees, the line-up is not the strong area of the Rays team. Their main threat and club leader Evan Longoria will enter the season again expected to provide average, power and RBIs at the heart of the Rays line-up, but the highly-talented third baseman is one of the few players in baseball who can fulfil such expectations. Breakout hitter Desmond Jennings will be expected to live up to his 5-tool hype and carry on where he left off before his post-all-star slump. Other figures like BJ Upton and Matt Joyce will need to contribute if the Rays want to launch a serious assault at the division.
The main reason why the Rays can be considered strong candidates for the division is because of their awesome rotation. Last year was a fantastic season for 30 year old 'veteran' James Shields, who earned the nickname Complete Game James after an unbelievable 11 complete games last season. He and 26 year old lefty David Price will be expected to provide quality starts regularly for Tampa Bay. The two young members of the rotation are arguably two of the hottest young pitchers in the league. First is sophomore Jeremy Hellickson, who last season won 13 games with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP to earn the rookie of the year award. A dip in performance is expected after astronomic luck on BABIP last season, but the kid is sure to improve. Finally is one of the top young players in the league, rookie southpaw Matt Moore. In his first start against the Yankees he kept them scoreless through 5 innings, striking out 11 on his way. He then dominated against Texas in the ALDS, proving he was ready to translate his stuff to the majors. If he can live up to half the hype, he'll be a lights-out pitcher for the Rays this year.
And finally, the Toronto Blue Jays. The 'inbetweeners' of the AL East at the moment, they have a good squad, but not good enough yet to really challenge for the title. Last year they went exactly .500 with 81 wins and 81 losses, which in their league simply isn't good enough. But the team is improving behind a good, young core.
On the offensive side, the clear leader is perennial home run champion contender Jose Bautista, who last season hit 43 homers, one season removed from mashing a franchise best 54. He'll provide huge power at the heart of the line-up, and up and coming star Brett Lawrie will hope to gain from a great start to his big-league career last season with a strong sophomore campaign this time around. The team has massive power potential, even without 'Joey Bats' with players like Edwin Encarnacion, Kelly Johnson and Adam Lind all capable of hitting 25+ home runs. The problem is finding a reliable player to get on base in front of these big hitters, and the acquisition of Colby Rasmus from the St Louis Cardinals last season failed to address this problem, at least so far.
In the rotation, the Blue Jays are growing in strength. They are led by ace Ricky Romero, who has quality pitches, but often fails to control it. When he's on his game, he can rival the best in baseball, but Toronto will look for greater consistency from him this season. He's backed up by strong young pitchers Brandon Morrow (who throws at 100mph consistently) and Henderson Alvarez (who will need to prove he has the stuff to play in the Bigs). In the bullpen they have a mixture of power and experience. The power is Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos, who will pitch at the back end of games and look to finish them off with powerful, strikeout pitches. The experience could come solely from Darren Oliver, the veteran left-hander who can call on 24 years of pitching experience but will likely be used in lefty v lefty situations this season.
So, who is going to end up where? I can't see past the Yankees winning the division unless they suffer key injuries in the rotation and bullpen. The Red Sox should be able to secure the wildcard this year, but they can't afford to slip up like last season, because the ever improving Rays will be snapping on their heels. If Tampa can keep players on the field and morale in the clubhouse high, they are the kind of team that could go on a long run that may well end up with a playoff spot. The Blue Jays will again improve, and might have a good run at the title next season, but they and the Orioles will be battling it out for 4th place again this season, as they suffer the misfortune of being placed in one of the toughest leagues in baseball.
Players to watch out for? I'll give you one from each team. From the Orioles, Matt Wieters. I finally back him to have a breakout season and be the bright spark in an otherwise drab lineup. 25 HRs and 80 RBI shouldn't be out of his reach. From the Red Sox, Adrian Gonzalez. I know what you're thinking, 'wow, big call there' but I think Gonzalez has a lot more to offer this season at Fenway. He could have easily added another 10 homers and 20 RBI to last years tally with a few more hits to right field, and I think he'll do that this year. From the Yankees, I'll back the old reliable Mariano Rivera to prove he's not out of gas yet with another superb season closing out games. Expect 40 or more from this once-in-a-lifetime player to cement his status as the greatest of all time. From the Rays I fancy Matt Moore to show he's the real deal and win Rookie of the Year with a 15 win, 200 K's season from the Rays rotation. He's a bit of a mystery at the moment, as we need to tell whether he can adjust to going through the same lineup 4 or 5 times, but if the Rays staff are to be believed, he's got the stuff to do it. And finally, from the Blue Jays I think Brett Lawrie will continue his star-studded start to his Major League career with a fine performance in his first full season. Something along the lines of 25 HR, 80 RBI and 25 steals wouldn't be out of reach for him.
Sunday, 25 March 2012
5 Bold Predictions for the 2012 season
So, Spring Training is nearly (finally) over, muscles have been flexed and it is time to get down to the nitty-gritty of a 162-game season, culminating in a new wildcard one game playoff and then the usual playoff scenario, at the end of which one team will be crowned champion.
The usual names have been put in the hat - the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but this year looks more open than ever. Can the reigning champion Cardinals put together another strong season without their star slugger Albert Pujols? And will his new team, the Los Angeles Angels turn a few heads in the AL West after their busy off-season? What about the Tigers, a team many pick to be World Series favourites after the resurgence of Verlander last year and the arrival of Prince Fielder to add some pop to an already potent line-up?
Well, here are my 5 bold predictions for the upcoming season, we'll see how close I get later on...:
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
I said they'd be bold didn't I? This is a guy who finally put it all together last season. He went 17-10 with a 3.52 ERA, making him a fair shout for the top arm in the Brewers rotation (which includes Zack Grienke). He threw 207 innings of work, so obviously has the durability, and also struck out 207 hitters at a clip of 1 every inning. That is an astounding stat considering his age (just turned 26) and the fact he hadn't broken out like that over his last few seasons. He also had a 1.21 groundout to flyout ratio, suggesting that when he doesn't strike out a batter, he keeps the ball on the ground. Every season he has improved - cutting his walks and increasing his strikeouts. Not only that, but he hit with a .221 average over 68 at bats - better than Adam Dunn. The kid is an athlete, and he's on the verge of greatness.
2. The Red Sox don't make the playoffs (again)
After their epic meltdown in September last year, you would hope the Red Sox would learn from their mistakes and not be complacent this season. Not only that, but they acquired Andrew Bailey to fill the closer role and should get a bounceback season from the likes of Crawford and Youkilis. However, they're playing in the AL East, one of the toughest divisions in the Majors, and I just see Tampa Bay having a fantastic year. Boston's pitching won't hold up, and their batting will crumble when they need it most, and another frustrating year will end in agony.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Mike, Giancarlo, whatever you want to call him, the kid can rake. He is just 22 years of age, and he's already hit 56 homers in his two seasons in the majors. Not only that, but he's moving to a field with a shorter left field wall. Not only that but he has more line-up protection than ever before. Still not convinced? On pitches inside the strike zone, Stanton has hit .336 with 45 home runs. It's not a matter of his hitting ability, it's whether he has the patience to wait for a good pitch. That will come with age. So will more power (bear in mind that of his 34 home runs last season, 15 were no doubters (most in Majors) and his average long ball went 416 feet). This kid is a frighteningly good prospect, and I think he crushes the ball this year.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Who? I hear you say. Duda. He joined the Mets big-league side at the end of last season and was quietly good, hitting for a .292 average with 10 homers and 50 RBI. That was only over the course of 301 at bats, and his spot in the outfield at Citi now looks secure. This spring, coaches have been singling out Duda consistently. They praised his swing, and now must praise him on a consistent basis as he continues to set a rapid pace in Spring Training (including an opposite field homer off Strasburg). He won't be absolutely lights out, but I think a .300, 25 home run, 90 RBI season isn't out of the question for him, and it would propel him into the top category for his position.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
The NL East is a tough division, and I don't see anyone but the Phillies winning it, but the new wildcard really benefits teams like the Nationals. I don't see the Braves doing so well this year, and I think the Nats are a good shout for 85 or 90 wins, which may well be enough to take them to the playoffs. They have a good rotation, behind the potent arm of Stephen Strasburg, and last years quiet performer Jordan Zimmermann. They should also be expecting bounce back seasons from Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so if Morse's form can continue, this could be a side that upsets the pack a bit in the playoffs - if they get there.
The usual names have been put in the hat - the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but this year looks more open than ever. Can the reigning champion Cardinals put together another strong season without their star slugger Albert Pujols? And will his new team, the Los Angeles Angels turn a few heads in the AL West after their busy off-season? What about the Tigers, a team many pick to be World Series favourites after the resurgence of Verlander last year and the arrival of Prince Fielder to add some pop to an already potent line-up?
Well, here are my 5 bold predictions for the upcoming season, we'll see how close I get later on...:
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
I said they'd be bold didn't I? This is a guy who finally put it all together last season. He went 17-10 with a 3.52 ERA, making him a fair shout for the top arm in the Brewers rotation (which includes Zack Grienke). He threw 207 innings of work, so obviously has the durability, and also struck out 207 hitters at a clip of 1 every inning. That is an astounding stat considering his age (just turned 26) and the fact he hadn't broken out like that over his last few seasons. He also had a 1.21 groundout to flyout ratio, suggesting that when he doesn't strike out a batter, he keeps the ball on the ground. Every season he has improved - cutting his walks and increasing his strikeouts. Not only that, but he hit with a .221 average over 68 at bats - better than Adam Dunn. The kid is an athlete, and he's on the verge of greatness.
2. The Red Sox don't make the playoffs (again)
After their epic meltdown in September last year, you would hope the Red Sox would learn from their mistakes and not be complacent this season. Not only that, but they acquired Andrew Bailey to fill the closer role and should get a bounceback season from the likes of Crawford and Youkilis. However, they're playing in the AL East, one of the toughest divisions in the Majors, and I just see Tampa Bay having a fantastic year. Boston's pitching won't hold up, and their batting will crumble when they need it most, and another frustrating year will end in agony.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Mike, Giancarlo, whatever you want to call him, the kid can rake. He is just 22 years of age, and he's already hit 56 homers in his two seasons in the majors. Not only that, but he's moving to a field with a shorter left field wall. Not only that but he has more line-up protection than ever before. Still not convinced? On pitches inside the strike zone, Stanton has hit .336 with 45 home runs. It's not a matter of his hitting ability, it's whether he has the patience to wait for a good pitch. That will come with age. So will more power (bear in mind that of his 34 home runs last season, 15 were no doubters (most in Majors) and his average long ball went 416 feet). This kid is a frighteningly good prospect, and I think he crushes the ball this year.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Who? I hear you say. Duda. He joined the Mets big-league side at the end of last season and was quietly good, hitting for a .292 average with 10 homers and 50 RBI. That was only over the course of 301 at bats, and his spot in the outfield at Citi now looks secure. This spring, coaches have been singling out Duda consistently. They praised his swing, and now must praise him on a consistent basis as he continues to set a rapid pace in Spring Training (including an opposite field homer off Strasburg). He won't be absolutely lights out, but I think a .300, 25 home run, 90 RBI season isn't out of the question for him, and it would propel him into the top category for his position.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
The NL East is a tough division, and I don't see anyone but the Phillies winning it, but the new wildcard really benefits teams like the Nationals. I don't see the Braves doing so well this year, and I think the Nats are a good shout for 85 or 90 wins, which may well be enough to take them to the playoffs. They have a good rotation, behind the potent arm of Stephen Strasburg, and last years quiet performer Jordan Zimmermann. They should also be expecting bounce back seasons from Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, so if Morse's form can continue, this could be a side that upsets the pack a bit in the playoffs - if they get there.
Friday, 6 January 2012
Cardinals Champs and Off-Season Moves
Sorry again for the big gap between posts, though in my fairness it is now the baseball off-season.
So, the 2011 season concluded with the St Louis Cardinals being crowned champions. Massive post-season performances from Chris Carpenter and David Freese meant the Cardinals turned around a 3-2 Texas Rangers lead into a game 7 clincher after some game 6 heroics.
As I showed in the last blog post, the fact the Cardinals were even in the playoffs was a bit of a miracle. But they had heated up at the end of the regular season, and they carried all that momentum into the playoffs with them, first beating the high-flying Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 on the back of Chris Carpenter outdueling Roy Halladay, and they then beat the Brewers 4-2 to clinch the pennant and move on to the World Series.
For Texas, it was their second World Series visit in 2 seasons, after the heartbreak loss to the San Francisco Giants last year. It is unlikely they will ever get closer to winning the World Series without actually winning it - in fact they were one strike away from world champions on 2 occasions - the first, David Freese, World Series MVP swung away for a two-run triple to tie up the scores. The second, comeback player of the year Lance Berkman lined up the middle for a single to once again tie up the scores. And one inning later, Freese did this hitting a walk off homer in the 11th inning to send the World Series to a crucial 7th game.
Only one inning before, Texas hero Josh Hamilton (another player I have done a piece one - well the only one) hit a go ahead, two run shot to seemingly cap off a fairytale story for himself and Texas but it was not to be. The 7th game didn't have half the excitement of the 6th, as the 36 year old Carpenter twirled a four-hit shut out to crown the Cardinals World Champions, and cap off one of the best World Series in a long time.
So, that brought about the post-season, and with it, two of the more interesting free agents that baseball has seen in a long time. The biggest name - 31 year old World Series winner Albert Pujols - went early, as despite fierce competition from the newly named Miami Marlins, the dark horse Los Angeles Angels made an audacious swoop for him, picking him up in an incredible 10 year, $254 million dollar deal, turning down another offer from his beloved Cardinals. Only the next day, the Angels went one step further, picking up CJ Wilson who had been free-agented by the Rangers to bolster their already impressive bullpen (Weaver, Haren, Santana and now Wilson)
However, the other big name, is 27 year old, power-hitting Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers, one of the best power hitters in the game. He was originally expected to draw a similar amount of money to Pujols, and with the precedent set by Los Angeles' massive offer, a huge deal is expected for Prince. Once again, the Miami Marlins are expected to be the front runners, along with the Cubs and the Nationals.
So, only a couple of months away from spring training now, where the biggest stars in baseball will once again return to the field. The newly reformed Anaheim Angels look strong, as do the Phillies (as always), the Yankees (as always) and many other teams. My early pick for WS champions? The Texas Rangers. With Yu Darvish seemingly coming aboard any day soon, and their potent batting line-up, it seems only a matter of time before they actually win a WS - third time lucky perhaps?
So, the 2011 season concluded with the St Louis Cardinals being crowned champions. Massive post-season performances from Chris Carpenter and David Freese meant the Cardinals turned around a 3-2 Texas Rangers lead into a game 7 clincher after some game 6 heroics.
As I showed in the last blog post, the fact the Cardinals were even in the playoffs was a bit of a miracle. But they had heated up at the end of the regular season, and they carried all that momentum into the playoffs with them, first beating the high-flying Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 on the back of Chris Carpenter outdueling Roy Halladay, and they then beat the Brewers 4-2 to clinch the pennant and move on to the World Series.
For Texas, it was their second World Series visit in 2 seasons, after the heartbreak loss to the San Francisco Giants last year. It is unlikely they will ever get closer to winning the World Series without actually winning it - in fact they were one strike away from world champions on 2 occasions - the first, David Freese, World Series MVP swung away for a two-run triple to tie up the scores. The second, comeback player of the year Lance Berkman lined up the middle for a single to once again tie up the scores. And one inning later, Freese did this hitting a walk off homer in the 11th inning to send the World Series to a crucial 7th game.
Only one inning before, Texas hero Josh Hamilton (another player I have done a piece one - well the only one) hit a go ahead, two run shot to seemingly cap off a fairytale story for himself and Texas but it was not to be. The 7th game didn't have half the excitement of the 6th, as the 36 year old Carpenter twirled a four-hit shut out to crown the Cardinals World Champions, and cap off one of the best World Series in a long time.
So, that brought about the post-season, and with it, two of the more interesting free agents that baseball has seen in a long time. The biggest name - 31 year old World Series winner Albert Pujols - went early, as despite fierce competition from the newly named Miami Marlins, the dark horse Los Angeles Angels made an audacious swoop for him, picking him up in an incredible 10 year, $254 million dollar deal, turning down another offer from his beloved Cardinals. Only the next day, the Angels went one step further, picking up CJ Wilson who had been free-agented by the Rangers to bolster their already impressive bullpen (Weaver, Haren, Santana and now Wilson)
However, the other big name, is 27 year old, power-hitting Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers, one of the best power hitters in the game. He was originally expected to draw a similar amount of money to Pujols, and with the precedent set by Los Angeles' massive offer, a huge deal is expected for Prince. Once again, the Miami Marlins are expected to be the front runners, along with the Cubs and the Nationals.
So, only a couple of months away from spring training now, where the biggest stars in baseball will once again return to the field. The newly reformed Anaheim Angels look strong, as do the Phillies (as always), the Yankees (as always) and many other teams. My early pick for WS champions? The Texas Rangers. With Yu Darvish seemingly coming aboard any day soon, and their potent batting line-up, it seems only a matter of time before they actually win a WS - third time lucky perhaps?
Saturday, 10 December 2011
The Wildest Card in Major League History
First post in my major league baseball blog, and I'm afraid it is several months late!
First of all an introduction to the wildcard format. The 'Major League' is split into two divisions - the American League and the National League. There are 3 'divisions' in each league, and the top placed team in each division earns a spot in the postseason. However, in both leagues there is a 'wildcard' spot. This means that a team that finishes second in its division can still enter the postseason if it has the best record of all second placed teams.
So, on September 28th, the last day of the regular season, this is how things stood. The Atlanta Braves, who had been consistent all year had begun to choke at the beginning of September. A seemingly unassailable wildcard lead had been reeled in by the St Louis Cardinals, who had really heated up in September, and wanted to pip the Braves to the post. A similar story was unfolding in the American League, where the Boston Red Sox, who had dominated for most of the season, had begun to falter in September, and the Tampa Bay Rays, who had struggled all season had begun to really heat up. Going into the final day of the regular season, the Braves and Cardinals were tied in wins, as were the Red Sox and Rays. If both teams won or lost it would go down to a one game playoff.
Before you read the rest of what I am going to write, I suggest you watch this video: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19789807&c_id=mlb
So, the night began at 7.05pm for 3 of the teams. The Red Sox began their game against the Orioles, the Rays kicked off their battle against the Yankees, and the Braves started their big tilt with the Phillies. The Rays immediately fell into a hole when a Mark Teixeira grand slam gave the Yankees a 5-0 lead after just 2 innings. They would later increase this lead to 7-0. Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Orioles exchanged runs in a cagey affair, and the Braves went out to an early 3-1 lead on Dan Uggla's 2 run home run.
The St Louis Cardinals began their match at 9pm, and after putting up 5 runs in the first inning, the result never looked in doubt as they clobbered the Astros 9-0 behind a complete-game shutout from ace Chris Carpenter. Meanwhile, the Red Sox had built up a 3-2 lead over the Orioles but it had been delayed by rain, and stopped in the middle of the seventh inning. In Tampa, the Rays were slowly chipping into the Yankees lead, and had reduced it to 7-3 in the bottom of the seventh. Step up Evan Longoria to plonk a three run homer into the left field seats and send the crowd crazy, sparking calls of an incredible comeback.
In Atlanta, rookie closing sensation Craig Kimbrel had been called in to close out the game 3-2 in the 9th inning, but gave up a sacrifice fly to tie the game. Locked at 3-3, the game went to extra innings.Meanwhile, a crazy scene of events was taking place in Tampa. Still behind 7-6, the Rays needed to manufacture a run in the bottom of the ninth inning to keep their playoff hopes alive. The first two batters were retired quickly, and it appeared that the Rays would fall devastatingly short. Manager of the Year Joe Maddon than called on pinch hitter Dan Johnson. With a season average of .121 and just one home run all season, he seemed an unlikely hero. But hero he was. On a 3-2 count, he hooked a fastball down the right field line, just inside the foul pole and just into the seats for a dramatic game-tying home run, sending the crowd into delirium.
Back in Atlanta, the Braves had gone behind in the bottom of the 13th through an RBI single from Hunter Pence, and in the bottom of the inning, their playoff hopes were shattered as rookie Freddie Freeman grounded into a double play to send the Braves home and the Cardinals into the playoffs. Heads then turned to Boston, where play was back under way, and in came Red Sox closer Johnathan Papelbon to close out their 3-2 game against the Orioles. He struck out the first two batters he faced, and the Sox looked like securing at least a play-off match against the Rays. However, the Orioles struck together three hits in a row, first tying, then winning the game on a walk off single by Robert Andino. The Red Sox had been one strike away from victory and were now on the brink of being out of the playoffs.
First of all an introduction to the wildcard format. The 'Major League' is split into two divisions - the American League and the National League. There are 3 'divisions' in each league, and the top placed team in each division earns a spot in the postseason. However, in both leagues there is a 'wildcard' spot. This means that a team that finishes second in its division can still enter the postseason if it has the best record of all second placed teams.
So, on September 28th, the last day of the regular season, this is how things stood. The Atlanta Braves, who had been consistent all year had begun to choke at the beginning of September. A seemingly unassailable wildcard lead had been reeled in by the St Louis Cardinals, who had really heated up in September, and wanted to pip the Braves to the post. A similar story was unfolding in the American League, where the Boston Red Sox, who had dominated for most of the season, had begun to falter in September, and the Tampa Bay Rays, who had struggled all season had begun to really heat up. Going into the final day of the regular season, the Braves and Cardinals were tied in wins, as were the Red Sox and Rays. If both teams won or lost it would go down to a one game playoff.
Before you read the rest of what I am going to write, I suggest you watch this video: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19789807&c_id=mlb
So, the night began at 7.05pm for 3 of the teams. The Red Sox began their game against the Orioles, the Rays kicked off their battle against the Yankees, and the Braves started their big tilt with the Phillies. The Rays immediately fell into a hole when a Mark Teixeira grand slam gave the Yankees a 5-0 lead after just 2 innings. They would later increase this lead to 7-0. Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Orioles exchanged runs in a cagey affair, and the Braves went out to an early 3-1 lead on Dan Uggla's 2 run home run.
The St Louis Cardinals began their match at 9pm, and after putting up 5 runs in the first inning, the result never looked in doubt as they clobbered the Astros 9-0 behind a complete-game shutout from ace Chris Carpenter. Meanwhile, the Red Sox had built up a 3-2 lead over the Orioles but it had been delayed by rain, and stopped in the middle of the seventh inning. In Tampa, the Rays were slowly chipping into the Yankees lead, and had reduced it to 7-3 in the bottom of the seventh. Step up Evan Longoria to plonk a three run homer into the left field seats and send the crowd crazy, sparking calls of an incredible comeback.
In Atlanta, rookie closing sensation Craig Kimbrel had been called in to close out the game 3-2 in the 9th inning, but gave up a sacrifice fly to tie the game. Locked at 3-3, the game went to extra innings.Meanwhile, a crazy scene of events was taking place in Tampa. Still behind 7-6, the Rays needed to manufacture a run in the bottom of the ninth inning to keep their playoff hopes alive. The first two batters were retired quickly, and it appeared that the Rays would fall devastatingly short. Manager of the Year Joe Maddon than called on pinch hitter Dan Johnson. With a season average of .121 and just one home run all season, he seemed an unlikely hero. But hero he was. On a 3-2 count, he hooked a fastball down the right field line, just inside the foul pole and just into the seats for a dramatic game-tying home run, sending the crowd into delirium.
Back in Atlanta, the Braves had gone behind in the bottom of the 13th through an RBI single from Hunter Pence, and in the bottom of the inning, their playoff hopes were shattered as rookie Freddie Freeman grounded into a double play to send the Braves home and the Cardinals into the playoffs. Heads then turned to Boston, where play was back under way, and in came Red Sox closer Johnathan Papelbon to close out their 3-2 game against the Orioles. He struck out the first two batters he faced, and the Sox looked like securing at least a play-off match against the Rays. However, the Orioles struck together three hits in a row, first tying, then winning the game on a walk off single by Robert Andino. The Red Sox had been one strike away from victory and were now on the brink of being out of the playoffs.
News quickly reached Tampa, where the game was still locked at 7-7 in the 11th inning after a couple of vital defensive plays from the Rays. The noise in the stadium grew to fever level when news of the Red Sox defeat came up on the board, and no more than 2 minutes later, at 12.15am, Rays hero Evan Longoria spanked a liner down the left field line for a walk-off home run, blowing the roof off the Tropicana stadium, and capping not only the most incredible comeback in wildcard history, but also the most incredible end to the regular season ever, propelling the Rays and Cardinals into the postseason, and consigning the Red Sox and the Braves to rue one of the biggest chokes in sporting history.
What. A. Night.
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