| AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLAYER ONE | .225 | .284 | .430 | 10 | 38 | 10 |
| PLAYER TWO | .287 | .357 | .653 | 9 | 22 | 1 |
Aside from a possibly intriguing blend of power and speed, there isn't a whole lot to like about that first player. A .284 on-base percentage is the kind of number usually reserved for back-up catchers or good-hitting pitchers. As you may have guessed from the title of this blog post, that player was Byron Buxton in 2016 who is neither a back-up catcher nor a pitcher.
Indeed since his 2015 debut, Buxton has been something of a disappointment. Ranked as the one of the top two prospects in baseball by pretty much every ranking list entering the 2015 season, Buxton has struggled mightily at the big league level, striking out in nearly one-third of plate appearances and finding very few opportunities to showcase his breathtaking speed and athleticism.
If you follow baseball and top prospects closely, this very likely isn't ground-breaking news to you. After Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Kris Bryant exploded onto the scene as rookies, top prospects now receive as much attention as ever and there are consequently rather unrealistic expectations placed on to the shoulders of some of these players.
Even taking that into account, Buxton has under-performed in almost every way other than his outstanding defense. With that being said, there is a reason this article isn't titled 'Wow, Byron Buxton isn't very good'. The second stat-line listed above is also Buxton, after his September 2016 call-up. He tore the cover off the ball to finish the season, racking up 1.6 wins above replacement over 113 plate appearances, tied for the most valuable player in baseball over that time.
Those of you watching Twins baseball in September (lord knows why anyone would) will have seen the kind of tools on display that made Buxton such a high-pedigree talent and his strong finish didn't avoid the attention of many baseball writers. You can be sure that heading into the 2017 campaign, he will be pegged as a potential breakout star far and wide.
And it's not hard to understand why. Buxton tore up the minor leagues, mashing his way from rookie ball to the majors in less than three seasons. In his time in the minors, he walked a lot, didn't strike out much and showcased enough power and speed to project as one of those rare commodities: a true five tool player. Even as inconsistency and injuries have derailed his major league career to date, the tools remain very much alive and well.
To start with, there's the power. Buxton is tall and rangy at six feet, two inches and is just starting to show signs of filling into that body as his late-season power surge shows. He hangs back well on this two-strike slider and absolutely obliterates it into the left-field bleachers.
Admittedly, it's a hanging breaking ball and it comes off James Shields who also gave up a home run to Bartolo Colon along with most of the American League. But hey, you still have to hit mistake pitches out and Buxton has been dreadful in two-strike situations so this represents a promising improvement.
Then there's the speed. This time, Buxton smokes an offering from AL Cy Young candidate Chris Sale to center field, and although he relies on a fairly dreadful misplay by Leurys Garcia masquerading unsuccessfully as a center-fielder he still shows off that deadly speed by cruising around the bases and beating the throw comfortably. A flat 14 seconds from home to home was easily the fastest inside-the-park home run the statcast era had ever seen.
The speed is where Buxton truly excels, as Mike Petriello excellently demonstrates. In 2016, Buxton had the fastest home to first base time of all right-handed hitters. And the second, and third, and fourth fastest times. Although Buxton doesn't have the pedigree or stolen base numbers of game-changer Billy Hamilton, he can produce a fairly compelling imitation job from the right-hand side.
Much like Hamilton, Buxton leverages this speed into tremendous center-field defense. His unrivalled ability to cover ground lets him get to balls that most defenders could only dream of reaching whilst his innate ability to take a quick first step and run a perfect route to the ball turns him from a plus defender into one of the best in the game.
A 0.47 second first step and 98.3% route efficiency allowed Buxton to track down a ball that is a home run 85% of the time and sported a .915 average this season. Then, of course, there is the typical fast center-fielder play as Buxton tracks down a floater against the Tigers.
Thanks to information like statcast, we can quantify good defenders with more precision now, and virtually every metric loves what Buxton can do with his glove. Then, there's the arm. Where some elite center-field defenders have weak arms (cough, Ben Revere, cough) Buxton has one of the strongest outfield cannons in the game. His throws were clocked as high as 99mph this season as he proved himself an all-round asset on the defensive side of the ball.
So we have a pretty decent volume of work to suggest that Buxton is one of the fastest players in baseball, and that he utilises his incredible speed and athleticism to also be one of the games best defenders from the premium position of center field. Given his monster September at the plate and his high prospect pedigree it's not hard to project Buxton as an MVP contender heading into 2017 - Mookie Betts feels like a not-outrageous comparison for his upside.
There remain, however, a number of serious red-flags for the speedy youngster at the plate. Even in September, Buxton struck out in over one-third of his at-bats. For a player who can do so much damage with his legs, not even getting the ball in play every third plate appearance is unforgivable, especially given power is not his game. The 36% HR/FB rate was clearly unsustainable, considerably higher than his 13.5% season mark whilst his six infield hits and one bunt hit suggest an element of good fortune, although we can comfortably predict a fair share of these given his elite speed.
Over the course of the season, Buxton's hard-hit rate according to Fangraphs was just 27.3% and even in his bonkers month of September it didn't go above 30%, a long way shy of the numbers of more established power hitters. If Buxton's strikeouts are to be explained by a swing-hard approach, we would expect to see him make more consistent hard contact when he does connect.
In giving these warning statistics, I don't intend to damper any enthusiasm for the potential of Buxton. He's an extraordinarily gifted athlete who has shown a propensity for the outrageous on a baseball field and given his incredible speed and defense he doesn't really have to hit much in order to be a productive big league player. A couple of huge three-week stretches each season would comfortably boost his stat-line to the point where he is a three or four win player.
It is also worth remembering that Buxton only turned 23 a couple of weeks ago. He is younger than Trout, Harper, Machado, Bryant, Lindor and Trea Turner among others. The impact performances of some rookies in recent seasons have raised our expectations to the point where prospects who don't turn into immediate MVP candidates are viewed as busts. Guys like Buxton often require a period of adjustment, and his injuries have certainly derailed his progression to a frustrating degree too.
Twins fans are justified to feel disappointed about the performance of their team last season after a strong second-half during the 2015 campaign. In Buxton however, they have a potential superstar who has shown flashes to suggest he is one of the most athletically gifted players in all of baseball. In September, he showed the first signs of turning that athleticism into MVP calibre production. Just don't be too surprised if it takes him a bit longer to put it all together.
