Assessing the early MVP candidates

With over two months of baseball already in the books, now would appear to be a good time to take a look at the early season candidates for the MVP, ROTY and Cy Young awards. Of course, a lot will change between today and the end of the season, but seeing which players fizzled out over the second half will be interesting.

The AL MVP Race

Front-runner - Miguel Cabrera

After raking his way to the triple crown and subsequently the MVP award last season, Cabrera has only gone and hit even better this season, with a .358/.451/.638 triple-slash and 19 home runs. He looks like being at the heart of another triple crown race, and whilst his defensive metrics let him down a bit (-6 DRS), his offensive game is so spectacular that he has made himself the early favourite once again. It wouldn't surprise me to see him lead the league in average and RBI once again, although I think he'll be hard-pressed to win the home run crown this season. If he can end the season with a .335/.420/.600 triple-slash, he'll have surely done enough to secure back-to-back MVP awards.

Overall verdict: It's going to take some serious regression or a tough-luck injury to slow down Cabrera.

The break-out guy - Chris Davis

Not many people would have had Chris Davis on their MVP ballot to start the season, but his major-league leading 24 home runs are beginning to turn some heads. The .337 average is boosted by an unsustainable .386 BABIP, but he has reduced his strikeout percentage from 30% to 25% and boosted his walk rate from 6.6% to 11%, suggesting an average in the high .200's could be a distinct possibility. Like Cabrera, Davis doesn't gain any value from his base-running or defense, but his bat is so hot that he will be breathing down Cabrera's neck to the end. If he wants to win the MVP award, he's going to need to lead the league in homers, whilst batting .300 and taking the Orioles to another post-season. I think he's due for some regression, but Davis could yet be in the picture come October.

Overall verdict: The power is legit, but his lack of history might hold him back.

The wily veteran - David Ortiz

I spoke at length earlier in the season about Ortiz, and how I expected him to have a big year. Up until his injury last season, his numbers were on pace with Miguel Cabrera, and so far this season he has not let me down. After missing most of the first month with the lingering achilles problem, Ortiz has been furiously making up the lost ground since then, with a .299 average, .382 OBP and .599 slugging percentage as well as 14 big flies. If he can stay healthy all season, he should be a great producer in every hitting category, and whilst the early injury will hold him back in the counting stats, he will profit from a good storyline if the Red Sox make the play-offs.

Overall verdict: Early injury and lack of position will inhibit his chances.

The 5-tool youngster - Mike Trout

Some people (myself included) believe that Trout should have won the MVP award last season, but Trout has not rested on his laurels and has come back out swinging this year. The .305 average and .382 OBP are behind last season's paces, but a .330 average was never sustainable, and Trout still has time to bump it up with a monster second half. The power is once again on display, with 12 home runs, whilst his 15 steals and elite defense (despite what the defensive metrics say) in the outfield give him an added dimension that the other candidates do not possess. Trout is probably behind in the race for the award so far this season, but a big second half could propel him right back into the running.

Overall verdict: Regression from his 2012 numbers and Angels poor start leave Trout playing catch-up.

The NL MVP Race

Front-runner - Carlos Gonzalez

Unlike in the American League, there is no obvious front-runner in the NL, but largely unnoticed, Carlos Gonzalez has been putting up monster numbers for the Rockies. The .311 average is nothing beyond his capabilities, as he hit .336 in 2010 on his way to the NL batting title and has been around .300 for his whole career at Coors. His K rate is actually up from last season, at 25%, but the walk rate has been bumped up too, to 11.4%, suggesting more patience from a typically aggressive hitter. Where has has excelled this season is in the power department, with an NL leading 20 homers and .640 slugging. This is largely thanks to a titanic increase in fly-ball percentage from 30% to 42%, whilst the HR/FB rate has also increased to 25%, which isn't unsustainable at Coors. The most shocking thing, has perhaps been his road hitting ability, as the one criticism of Gonzalez had always been his inability to hit outside Coors. He's actually hitting much better on the road, with a .348 average and 11 homers, but his frailty has prevented him from playing more than 145 games before in his career. His 13 steals also make him a decent threat for a 30/30 season, although on his current paces a 40/30 season wouldn't be beyond reach.

Overall verdict: Gonzalez isn't getting the credit his season deserves, but if he stays healthy all season that should change.

The break-out guy - Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt's ability to crush lefties is nothing new, but his new-found ability to crush right-handers too has turned him into one of the best sluggers in the National League. The .305/.386/.556 triple-slash is elite, and the 16 home runs put him on pace for close to 35. Goldschmidt is showing more patience than in recent seasons, and his 61 RBI lead the National League. He has cooled off a bit recently, but is still one of the best young hitters in the league and should be on for a monster season at the heart of the D-Backs line-up. He also has surprising speed for a first baseman, and could quietly steal 15 bases, further boosting his resumé.

Overall verdict: If he can guide the D-Backs into the post-season, he becomes MVP favourite.

The wily veteran - Joey Votto

Votto is the most advanced hitter in the Major Leagues, and his incredible understanding of the game combined with ridiculous hitting ability make every at-bat a fascinating spectacle. Despite the fact his walk percentage is down to 16.7%, Votto leads the majors with 53 walks and the .438 OBP is second only to Cabrera. He may never repeat the 37 homer 2010 campaign, but his 12 home runs aren't negligible, and you get the feeling he could hit 15 in a month if he really turns it on at the plate. Greatness is almost expected from Votto now, and he keeps proving that he is one of the finest pure hitters in the game. The lack of power may inhibit his MVP chances, but his ridiculous ability make him a constant candidate.

Overall verdict: Not a slugger in the usual sense, but video game numbers make him perennial candidate.

The 5-tool youngster - Jean Segura/Carlos Gomez

I've bunched these two early-season stars together, because they have comparable skill-sets and both play for the Brewers. Segura has been a revelation at short-stop this season, with a .330 average to go with 10 homers and 19 steals. He doesn't hit enough fly balls to keep up this home run pace, but the average and steals may well be legitimate, whilst his quality defense at short gives him an excellent all-round game. Meanwhile, Gomez is proving there is more than one CarGo in the MVP picture, as his .317 average is backed by 12 homers and 13 steals. He has been ridiculous on defense in center field, and if he can keep up the hot hitting, he could be a real sleeper MVP candidate considering the depth of his production. Both players are limited by the fact that the Brewers are not a competitive team, but they provide a bright future for this franchise up the middle of the field.

Overall verdict: Will need monster second-halfs to put themselves in contention, but their all-round games are very impressive indeed.

So, there you have it. A quick summation of the MVP prospects in both leagues - which guys do you fancy do still be on this list come September?

Notable mention must be given to Troy Tulowitzki, who was putting up MVP numbers until the latest in a series of injuries.

30 in 30: Los Angeles Angels

With the Houston Astros preview out of the way, we now head towards the west coast and take a look at the high-spending Los Angeles Angels.

2012 Season

The Angels made the biggest splash in the off-season prior to last season, forking out huge amounts of money to sign top free agent Albert Pujols and added C.J. Wilson to their armour in the rotation. After a disappointing April (8-15 record), they took off in the next few months, with a 35-20 record in May and June. They stumbled a little in July and August, and ultimately they were made to rue the slow start as they finished 89-73, five games back in the division. It's no coincidence that the team's turnaround after April coincided with the call-up of rookie sensation Mike Trout who had the greatest rookie season in history as he had a .326/.399/.564 triple-slash to go with 30 home runs, 49 steals and outstanding defensive work. Pujols struggled through a well documented April slump, but he too picked up the pace after that, and whilst the .285 average was lower than his usual standard, he still cranked 30 homers and drove in 100 runs. On the mound, Jered Weaver continued to prove he is an ace-calibre pitcher with a 2.81 ERA and minuscule 1.02 WHIP. The mid-season acquisition of Zack Greinke gave the play-off run some impetus, but ultimately didn't prove the difference maker.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Josh Hamilton, Jason Vargas, Joe Blanton, Sean Burnett, Tommy Hanson, Ryan Madson
OUT: Zack Greinke, Ervin Santana, Kendrys Morales, Jordan Walden, Torii Hunter, Dan Haren

Overview: Having dominated the 2011 off-season, most people expected this to be a quiet free agent period for the Angels, but they once again stole the show as they signed Josh Hamilton to a 5 year, $125 million contract. The departures of Greinke, Santana and Haren opened up holes in the rotation, but the acquisitions of Vargas, Blanton and Hanson should at least fill those gaps for the time being. Ryan Madson appears to be the favourite to close, although the departure of Torii Hunter leaves the Angels without an obvious option at number 2 in the line-up. The Angels brought in another stud slugger to make their line-up one of the more formidable in the Majors, but to me the biggest need was another big rotation arm, and the underwhelming acquisitions of Blanton and Hanson don't really address that need. Overall grade: 6/10.

Projected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
LF	Mike Trout	.402/.564/7.4
SS	Erick Aybar	.321/.389/2.7
1B	Albert Pujols	.394/.564/4.1
RF	Josh Hamilton	.356/.540/3.2
DH	Mark Trumbo	.315/.495/1.8
2B	Howie Kendrick	.327/.424/2.4
3B	Alberto Callaspo	.337/.386/2.2
C	Chris Ianetta	.352/.426/1.7
CF	Peter Bourjos	.316/.411/2.6

Projected rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Jered Weaver	220/3.07/4.4
2	C.J. Wilson	198/3.45/3.4
3	Tommy Hanson	160/3.66/2.1
4	Joe Blanton	182/4.10/1.6
5	Jason Vargas	205/3.82/1.7

Position Players

There was no better all-round player in baseball last season than Mike Trout, and at aged 21 it's scary to think he may improve. One area in which he could improve is cutting down on the strikeouts. He whiffed 139 times in 2012, and if he is able to shave this by 10 or 20% then the average may actually rise. He wasn't projected to hit for much power, but there is no reason to think that the pop is not legitimate, and the speed certainly won't be going away soon. Josh Hamilton will slot right into the side as the clean-up hitter, and whilst he was incredibly good for streaks last season, his disappointing end to the season (.259 average in September) and propensity to strike out means he is susceptible to bitterly cold streaks. Moving to Anaheim may sap some power from his bat, but if he is able to stay healthy then he'll be a highly productive hitter at the heart of this line-up.

Pujols was woeful in April, but after making a few adjustments went back to being his true self and there is no reason to think that the man we saw from May onwards wasn't the real Pujols. Mark Trumbo has prodigious raw power, but poor contact rate and no real position on the diamond. He crushed in the first couple of months last season, but cooled down considerably down the stretch, so he'll need to improve that it's the .373 and .407 OBPs from April and May that are repeatable, not the .263 and .205 in August and September. Howie Kendrick and Alberto Callaspo both have limited ability with the bat, but play solidly in the field and have the potential to drive in runs with such talented hitters ahead of them. Iannetta hit well in streaks for the Angels, but struggled with injuries and may find his playing time reduced if he can't find a groove with the bat. This is a line-up with a few stud players, but they may miss Hunter more than they think, and if Trout regresses and Hamilton struggles with injuries, the team's flaws will become more obvious. Overall grade: 7/10.

Pitching

The clear ace of the rotation is the 30 year-old right-hander Jered Weaver, who continues to excel. He won 20 games last season, with a 2.81 ERA and 1.02 WHIP to go with them, as his fly ball tendencies work well in spacious Anaheim. He also pitched a no-hitter, and will look to take that form with him into 2012, with more pressure on his shoulders than ever. C.J. Wilson was disappointing in his first season, with a 3.84 ERA and 1.34 WHIP his highest stats for 4 years. He'll look to rebound in 2012, with pressure on him to live up to his contract. Blanton and Hanson are both looking to bounce back after disappointing seasons, with the latter coming off an awful -0.9 WAR season. Jason Vargas is an underrated innings-eater, who's fly-ball tendencies will play just as well in Angels Stadium as Safeco.

In the bullpen, the newly acquired Ryan Madson will look to bounce back after missing a year with injuries. He recorded 32 saves with a 2.37 ERA in 2011, and the Angels will be hoping they have found themselves a bargain in free agency. Ernesto Frieri arrived at Anaheim at the start of the 2012 season from the Padres and was lights-out, with a 2.32 ERA and 0.99 WHIP whilst in Los Angeles. He saved 23 games, saving 11 from 11 prior to the all-star break, and will be the first to step in if Madson falters. The acquisition of Sean Burnett gives the bullpen a second lefty to go with Scott Downs, and both pitchers were strong in 2012, although the latter struggled a little down the stretch. Overall, the rotation seems to lack a clear second starter behind Weaver and I don't love the depth. The bullpen is very strong however, and should keep the Angels ahead in close games. Overall grade: 7/10.

Prospects

After years of trades and wasted draft picks, the Angels have run out of quality prospects. Third baseman Kaleb Cowart promises to be an intriguing prospect at the hot corner, but beyond him there is little to look forward to in Anaheim. Kole Calhoun will be a bench bat in 2013, and a good one at that, whilst Nick Marone and R.J. Alvarez may provide bullpen help. The big league club may be strong, but the farm system is very much in need of replenishing. Overall grade: 2/10.

Overview

Overall, this is a team that could easily win 100 games, but could also struggle to keep pace in the division. Trout, Hamilton and Pujols are three fearsome hitters, but don't have a lot of other support in the line-up, whilst the pressure will all be on Jered Weaver to win another 15-20 games. If they can avoid another April slump I like their chances, but I don't think they run away with the division.

Prediction: 90-72

Gif to Watch

You've probably seen this GIF a thousand times, but it bears watching again and again. Trout made a number of spectacular home run robbing catches in 2012, but this was surely the pick of the bunch.