Fantasy: Hitters to Avoid

Adrian Gonzalez. Jacoby Ellsbury. Tim Lincecum. Hunter Pence. Dan Haren. Eric Hosmer.

Nope, it's not just a typical game of 'name a random baseball player', but rather how your first six picks in a 2012 fantasy draft could have looked if you'd gotten it all wrong. It's human nature to forgot our mistakes ("A-Gon was a first round pick?!" "No-one took Pence that high did they?!") but using simple logic you can work out that for every player that performs above his expectations, there will be another player performing below expectations. These are the guys you want to avoid on draft day, the dreaded 'busts'. Sometimes it can be down to injury, other times horrible performance drop-offs. Who are the guys to stay away from this year?

Catcher - Victor Martinez

This prediction has a pretty good chance of backfiring, considering the fact that Martinez will be batting 5th in the Tigers line-up, behind perennial all-stars Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. I just think Martinez is too high up on draft boards considering he hasn't swung a bat since 2011. Before his injury, he was an absolute lock for a .300 average, 10-20 homers and in this Tigers line-up he could well cruise to 100 RBI. Whilst the injury shouldn't impact his contact ability, and it appears he will be spending all his time in the DH role, I think there is considerable risk both for re-injury and for regression. He is, by all means, a viable fantasy starter, but his current ranking in the top five catchers by many people seems too high.

First base - Albert Pujols

Well if you're going to go out on a limb, you may as well make it a big limb. Pujols is considered by many if not all to be the number one first baseman available, and that is what I have an issue with. Pujols had a disastrous April last season, but turned it around and ended up logging his typical stat-lines - 30 homers, 100 RBI and a .285 average. However, he was forced to make adjustments. Pujols bat speed has decreased, and as a consequence he is being forced to start his swing earlier. He's a good enough hitter that bad pitches will still be punished, but his traditionally elite eye at the plate (92 walks was his lowest mark between '05 and '10) will start to suffer and he'll strikeout a fair bit more. This of course, will lead to a drop off in average; I think somewhere between .280 and .290 can be expected. He'll probably hit 30 home runs, but again the days of pushing 40 are in the rear-view mirror. He's a fine fantasy option, but I'm leaving him alone in the first round and drafting someone with more upside and reliability.

Second base - Jason Kipnis

Kipnis got off to an absolute flyer in 2012, stealing 20 bases from his first 21 attempts. In the second half of the season, however, he began to slow down, both at the plate and on the bases. He's a category filler, as he has 20-homer potential with the bat, and 30-steal potential with his legs, and those are the kind of stats that are hard to find at second base. If you're league counts walks or OBP then he becomes a good performer there too, as his 10% walk rate attests to. However, his .257 average ended as a bit of an eyesore, and his second half performance comes as a concern. If he falls down draft boards then he is well worth a flyer, but at his current ranking I think you'd be better off with Zobrist or Brandon Phillips.

Third base - Hanley Ramirez

Hanley is eligible at both third base and shortstop this season, and whilst he'll likely provide more value at shortstop I'm listing him as my 'bust' at third base. With Ramirez you're simply drafting for something we haven't seen since 2010. After posting excellent stats in the average category during his first few seasons in the Majors, his ability to get the ball in play has collapsed since then, with a .243 and .257 average in the pst two seasons respectively. Ramirez's speed has also become less of a factor, with his 50 steal seasons in '06 and '07 now firmly in the past. His power is unlikely to play up at Dodger Stadium, and whilst he did play better there than at Marlins Stadium I think his likely slash-line will be something like .260/.320/.430 with 20 homer and 20 steal ability. He's still a fine option either at third or short, but don't kid yourself that he'll provide value anywhere near the third round where he's being drafted this year.

Shortstop - Starlin Castro

Some appear ready to suggest Castro is primed for a jump into the top tier of shortstops and maybe even become number one. Having played in the Majors for three years now, it's easy to forget that Castro is just 22 years of age, and likely only starting to scratch his power potential. Whilst I think Castro is improving, and that he is destined to be the number one shortstop in fantasy in the coming seasons, I don't think that season is now. After posting an average above .300 and an OBP above .340 in both of his first two season, Castro actually took a step back last season with an average at .283 and OBP at .323. He continued to show improvements in power, with 14 home runs, and I think he could 20 home runs at his peak. The speed continues to be a big part of his game, with 25 steals last season, although being thrown out 13 times is not impressive, and he came under stick from his own manager at times for bone-headed play on the bases or in the field, suggesting he may not get the green light as frequently. He should hit for .280 with the possibility for .300 or .310, but his plate discipline suggests a run at the batting title is unlikely to be imminent. And whilst 15 homer and 25 steals are fine production at the position, I think you can find that kind of value several rounds later in the form of Ian Desmond. Certainly he does not deserve to go at the same time as Jose Reyes, so I'd suggest avoiding him and allowing someone else to take on the hype.

Outfield - Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson and Desmond Jennings

Josh Hamilton was one of the nicest surprises in fantasy land last season, as he lived up to his billing as a devastating power hitter, slugging 43 homers and managing to stay healthy for (almost) the whole season. The move to Anaheim has boosted his stock in some ways (hitting behind Trout and Pujols never hurt anyone) but reduced it in others (Angel Stadium is a hitters park, compared to the sluggers paradise in Arlington). But what concerns me the most is the way Hamilton finished in Texas. He hit just 16 homers after the all-star break, compared to 27 before it and saw a worrying fall in his walk rate coincide with an increase in strikeout rate. After putting together three consecutive seasons with strikeouts below 100, Hamilton struck out an eye-opening 162 times in 2012. He was able to hit for a .285 average, and with more walks then ever before but there are so many concerns. I think the average will plummet to somewhere around .260-.270, and whilst there's no holding back that power, injury issues remain a concern for Hamilton. He could repeat 2012 and make me look silly, but I'm avoiding him in the first few rounds if I can.

I have never been a big Curtis Granderson fan, which may explain partly why I'll be staying well away from him in drafts this season, but the stats are there to back me up. Granderson's value is no secret. He uses the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium to his advantage more than anyone else in the league, and subsequently is an annual threat for 40 homers. He has also proved remarkably durable in centre-field throughout his career, despite putting significant demands on his body. The reason I'm so low on Granderson is the batting average and the strikeouts. Granderson has never been a contact guy, but he took that to the extreme last season, hitting for a pitiful .232. Whilst this was somewhat salvaged by his 75 walks, there is no denying that his ability to get the ball in play has severely diminished. It's possible that he bounces back a bit, but he'll have to prove he can hit breaking balls. He hit .296 off fastballs in 2012 but a laughable .175 off breaking pitches. His 195 strikeouts also challenged for the league lead. Not only that, but his speed has faded slowly but surely from his game as he stole just 10 bases last season. You're paying only for power, and for that reason I think you can do much better when he's ranked around the 40 overall mark (Matt Holliday for example).

Desmond Jennings seems to be ranked among the top 25 outfielders because of the general belief that this will surely be the year he breaks out. At least that's the only explanation I can think of, as his career high in average is .246, in home runs is 13 and in strikeouts is 120. Admittedly, Jennings does have great speed, swiping 31 bags in 33 attempts last season, but other than that he has few tools to speak of. He entered the league with 5 tool potential and it appears unlikely he'll ever be able to live up to that potential. Until he's able to hit for a .300 average with 20 home-run power and 30 steal potential I'll be leaving him well alone when he's ranked around other outfielders like Choo, Prado and Austin Jackson.

Week 8 Roundup

So, another two weeks have passed in the baseball world, and it's time for another roundup. As the early-season gaudy stats died down, the more elite players in the game returned to the top of the standings and in general there have not been too many massive surprises. However, that doesn't mean there haven't been any...

Has there been a bigger surprise in baseball this year than the Baltimore Orioles? The question everyone has is are they for real? This is a side that in the past has struggled, particularly with pitching, but suddenly they have broken out this season, sporting an AL-best 27-14 record and topping one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. Taking their spot at the bottom of the division are the ice-cold Boston Red Sox, who's early season bullpen implosion is still taking its toll. Baltimore's success has largely been down to the success of their bats, or more accurately the bats of Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. The toolsy outfielder has finally put it all together this season, hitting at a .310 average, with 14 homers, 29 RBI and 32 runs, playing a huge part in the success of this Orioles team. The catcher has also finally fulfilled the no.1 draft pick in the 2007 draft, hitting .243 with 8 homers and 20 RBI.

As a team, they have hit the most home runs in the Major Leagues with 64, despite striking out the most of any major league team. The team average and OBP is distinctly, well, average, coming in around the center of the pack. So why is this team so successful? Put simply, they are clutch. The Orioles leave the fewest runners in scoring position per game in the Majors, meaning if someone gets on base, they are likely to score. The bullpen has also been watertight in general, ensuring the Orioles come out of close games on top. Closer Jim Johnson leads the Majors in saves, and his bullpen mates Lindstrom, Strop, Ayala and O'day may not be household names, but they are turning in lights-out performances at the back of games. It will be interesting to see how long this purple patch lasts for the Orioles.

Justin Verlander turned in a typically dominant performance Friday night against the Pirates, coming 2 outs away from his 3rd career no hitter, but Josh Harrison's bloop base hit up the middle broke it up. Personally, I believe Verlander is the best player in baseball at the moment, and will be viewed as one of the greatest of all time come the end of his career. Last season he stepped up from the elite to the best, turning in an astonishing 24-5 record with a 2.40 ERA and 0.92 WHIP to win the MVP and Cy Young awards. He also led the league with 250 strikeouts, and looks set to continue those astounding numbers this season with a 5-1 record, 2.14 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and league-leading 68 strikeouts. The reason for Verlander's dominance is that he simply has another gear that he can click into when he needs to. At the start of games, Verlander's fastball hovers around 94mph, but inning by inning, this increases, allowing Verlander to hit 100mph comfortably by the end of games. This isn't clunky, awkward speed. This is easy gas, Verlander barely strains a sinew as he cranks the velocity up and paints the outside corner with a 100mph heater after 130 pitches like here, against KC. I don't doubt that, if need be, Verlander could throw harder, for longer in games, but he simply doesn't need to. He can save his 100mph heaters for the best hitters, or the big situations. Oh, and if you manage to catch up with his dominating fastball, he can drop a curveball off the table, or freeze you with a changeup, or make you look stupid with a slider. Tigers coach called Verlander's friday night performance the greatest he's ever seen, and it's hard to disagree. It was almost a crime that the Pirates got a hit - they didn't deserve to go near him. Verlander himself admitted that when he took to the mound for the 9th inning he felt as though the no-hitter was a formality. That's not to say he is arrogant. He is one of the more down-to-earth, likeable pitchers in the Majors, and that almost makes it worse.

Kerry Wood also called a day on his Major League career, striking out Dayan Viciedo in his final appearance for the Cubs. The pinnacle of his career ultimately came just 6 starts into his Major League career, when he produced what many believe was the most dominant pitching performance in baseball history, allowing one hit (an infield one, that may have been an error at other times) and striking out a major league record 20 hitters as a rookie. That performance was a glimpse of what ultimately could have been for Wood, who had his career blighted by injuries. Despite several reconstructive surgeries, Wood was never able to show off his over-powering stuff over a long period of time, and his injuries forced him into the bullpen and ultimately into retirement.

Elsewhere, Hamilton and David Wright continued their hot-hitting start to the season, and the Nationals continued to turn heads, particularly with their arms, who continue to lead the Majors in ERA and strikeouts as they top a very competitive division. Interleague play started this week and promises to provide more excitement as wins become more important. Stay tuned!

Week 6 Roundup

Well, straight off the bat, apologies, I have been a little tardy with my weekly matchups of late, and so have managed to skip out 3 or 4 weeks. But fear not, because I've been staying in touch with the Majors and hopefully will stay on track a little better from now on...

So, what's happened since last time? Perhaps the biggest news is Albert Pujols finally hitting his first homer, ending the longest drought of his 12 year career. It appeared that the weight of the $240m dollar deal he signed during the off season was weighing down on his shoulders, but hopefully this will allow him to break out of the slump, because the Angels need him to spark some offense!

The biggest rookie phenomenon in recent years, Bryce Harper, got his call up to the big league after injuries forced the Nats to call him up prematurely. Aged just 19 years old, Harper has not disappointed the incredible hype surrounding his promotion and has hit maturely in his first 10 games for the Nationals, drawing walks and coming up with key hits. He was at the centre of fresh controversy this week when Cole Hamels, Philadelphia starting pitcher, admitted he had deliberately thrown at Harper in the first inning of their game in Washington, when he plunked Harper in the back with his first pitch. Harper exacted his revenge by stealing home a few plays later, and Hamels himself got hit in his next at-bat (although Zimmermann denied throwing at him intentionally). Nationals manager Mike Rizzo called it 'the most gutless act' he had ever seen in baseball, and since Hamels has been given a 5 game suspension (meaning his next start will be pushed back an entire day).

Also called up to the big league has been Angels prospect Mike Trout. The 5 tool center-fielder was raking in AAA and so got the call up to the big leagues, where he struggled early but has started to find his feet. Rays pitching phenom Matt Moore has disappointed so far in his first major league season, with a 1-2 record, an ERA of 5.71 and a WHIP of 1.64. More worryingly, his K/9 rate is down, and his walk/9 rate is up from the small glimpse we got of him last season, and he simply doesn't have the swing and miss stuff that made jaws drop at the end of last season. Personally, I think this is because he is being made to throw too many fastballs. I haven't seen every game he's thrown, but from what I have seen, he is throwing fastballs 80% of the time. Although his fastball is a good pitch, it simply isn't good enough unless he matches it with off-speed and breaking pitches. Hitters have learnt to sit on his fastball, and when he doesn't locate it, he hasn't got the speed or movement to make it miss the bat. Last season, he was mixing in a healthy stream of curveballs and changeups, forcing hitters off balance and getting them to swing at pitches outside the zone. Because his fastball is getting battered, Moore is trying to catch the corners, and as a consequence he's falling behind in the count. And when you're down 3-0 or 3-1, you're asking for trouble. Moore needs to find the confidence he had in his other pitches, and use them more sparingly.

This comes as a strong contrast to the fortunes of Texas rookie Yu Darvish. The Japanese import has had a strong start to the season, with a 4-1 record through 6 starts, ERA of 2.54 and WHIP of 1.46. More impressively, he has K'd 44 in 39 innings of work, and in his last start against the Indians was nigh-on unhittable, with 18 swinging strikes out of his 112 pitches thrown. He struck out 11, 10 on his breaking ball which is one of the nastiest pitches in the league. The only issues he has faced are control issues. He has walked 21 batters, which restricts him from being a top level pitcher. Not only does it put a man on base, but it pushed his pitch count up, and forces him to throw more fastballs. If he can get his command under control, Darvish might be one of the best pitchers in the league. In my eye there's no question, he has the nastiest curveball in the league - check this link if you don't believe me.

Oh, and whilst we're talking about impressive outings, how about Josh Hamilton last night (8/5/12). Try going 5/5 with 4 home runs and 18 total bases. An incredible performance that is made all the better because of Hamilton's career, as he put the team on his back and took every Orioles pitcher deep in one of the most incredible single-game performances in recent history (it was the first 4 homer game since 2003, and the most total bases in AL history). Hamilton is having quite some season so far, and if he can continue his torrid pace without getting injured, we could see an MVP season for one of the most talented men in baseball.

In terms of team standings, there are a lot of puzzling questions. Are the Orioles for real? Are the Red Sox for real? The Orioles top the AL East with a 19-11 record, whilst the Red Sox (who many tipped for the division title) are sitting in last place, 4 games behind 4th placed Toronto. Texas sit top of their division, which is just reward for an incredible start to the season with the lumber. The Dodgers have continued to impress, behind MVP-calibre performances from Matt Kemp, and the Nationals have been very impressive considering their injuries, with their rotation and bullpen boasting the best ERA in the majors. A lot will change before next time, but for Orioles fans, there's no time like the present.