30 in 30: Cincinnati Reds

With the Chicago Cubs preview out of the way, we head to the NL Central champion Cincinnati Reds.

2012 Season

The 2012 season was, for the most part, highly successful for the Reds. On the offensive side of the ball, Joey Votto played just 111 games, but the Reds were able to get production from elsewhere, with Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and rookie Todd Frazier all putting together strong offensive season. The rotation was led by NL Cy Young contender Johnny Cueto, who won 19 games to go with his 2.78 ERA and 5.8 WAR - a feat more incredible when you consider how hitter-friendly his home ballpark is. He was ably supported by Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Bronson Arroyo, who formed one of the more durable rotations in the Majors. The bullpen was led by the lights-out Aroldis Chapman who put together an incredible season with 122 strikeouts and 38 saves in 71.2 innings, with his astonishing 3.6 WAR a testament to his 9th inning abilities. Ultimately, the season ended in disappointment as the Reds threw away a 2-0 NLDS lead and were left to rue what could have been after a 97-65 regular season.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Donald, Manny Parra, Miguel Olivo
OUT: Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs, Didi Gregorius, Ryan Madson, Dioner Navarro

Overview: It was a simple, but effective season for the Reds as they addressed their only need from the 2012 season by bringing in a lead-off hitter in the form of Shin-Soo Choo. The lead-off spot had been contributing a .254 OBP in 2012, so there is no doubt that Choo is an offensive upgrade. His defense in center-field will be more shaky, and it may well force Jay Bruce to move over to center, or even force the early call-up of much-hyped prospect Billy Hamilton. The Reds saw a few big names walk out the door, but nothing that they would have really needed this season, so all in all they addressed their one need pretty comprehensively. Overall grade: 6/10

Expected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
CF	Shin-Soo Choo	.374/.440/3.7
2B	Brandon Phillips	.327/.432/3.5
1B	Joey Votto	.422/.538/5.6
LF	Ryan Ludwick	.327/.449/1.6
RF	Jay Bruce	.342/.518/3.6
3B	Todd Frazier	.325/.476/2.4
SS	Zack Cozart	.308/.415/2.8
C	Ryan Hanigan	.367/.357/2.0

Expected rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Johnny Cueto	215/3.52/3.5
2	Mat Latos	208/3.16/3.8
3	Homer Bailey	210/3.86/2.7
4	Bronson Arroyo	218/3.88/0.7
5	Aroldis Chapman	67/2.42/2.5

Position Players

A quick look at this teams projections gives you a pretty good idea why they won 97 games last year. Choo has posted a career OBP of .381, and should be the perfect table-setter for this potent line-up, although every projection system has him down to be a horrible defensive center-fielder. Joey Votto is the clear stand-out bat in this line-up, with incredible line-drive rates leading to scary contact numbers - he has never hit below .297. This hitting ability is backed up by extraordinary plate discipline that saw him draw 94 walks in 111 games last season. He is a very good bet to lead the Majors in OBP. Some people seem to be waiting for Jay Bruce to truly break out, but I think we've seen all we're going to see him from so far. He has prodigious power, with 30 homers almost a certainty if he can stay healthy. He's never going to compete for a batting title with a career .255 average, but has shown an improvement in his plate discipline that should mean he gets on base most of the time. He could have a chance at 40 homers if he can become a less streaky hitters, and is certainly a big threat at the heart of the Reds line-up.

Brandon Phillips has seen his counting stats decline a little in recent years, but he continues to get on base at a decent clip, play lights-out defense and perhaps most importantly stay healthy with seven straight seasons of 140+ games under his belt. Todd Frazier will be looking to build off an impressive rookie campaign in which he hit .273 and slugged .498 now that he has a full-time role at third base all to himself. The sleeper in this line-up is catcher Ryan Hanigan, who quietly had a great season behind the plate in Cincinnati. His .365 OBP was the highlight stat, and whilst the power is non-existent he plays great defense to go with it. He might be overtaken in the pecking order at some point by young catcher Devin Mesoraco, but Hanigan is not a drain on the team's production. Overall this is a team that not only has the 4-5 win guys, but the 2-3 win guys to back them up. The addition of Choo filled a major hole, and I see no reason why this line-up can't be one of the best in baseball again. Overall grade: 8/10.

Pitching

The Reds pitching staff allowed the fewest runs in the NL last season, despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park. The rotation was a point of real strength, with Johnny Cueto putting together the best season of his career to lead it. His ERA has been incredibly low for both of the past two seasons, and although he doesn't have great strikeout stuff, he doesn't give up free passes and is able to keep fly balls in the park. Mat Latos might be ready for a big season in the Reds rotation, whilst Homer Bailey will try to kick on after a 2012 that was highlighted by a late-season no-hitter. Aroldis Chapman's move to the rotation has not been without its controversy but I believe it is the right move if he is able to transition successfully. Something tells me that management will get cold feet and move him back to the bullpen as soon as possible, but he is too special a pitcher to be restricted to 70 innings of work per year.

The move to the rotation for Chapman does weaken the bullpen though. The Reds signed Jonathan Broxton to an extension, and he will start the season as their closer. He has a good deal of 9th inning experience, but isn't a particularly gifted pitcher, although if he can repeat the 27 saves from last season then the Reds will be happy. Sean Marshall showed at times last season that he can be a dominant reliever from the 'pen, and he will be the main left-hander for the Reds this season. After a rough April, Sam LeCure was terrific for the Reds, and Logan Ondrusek will be hoping it's the zero earned runs he allowed in April that can repeat itself, rather than the more erratic rest of season performances. Overall, this is a rotation with strength from 1 to 5, and a bullpen that should be able to repeat their fine performances from a year ago. Overall grade: 9/10.

Prospects

The main guy in the Reds system for the 2013 season with be electric center-fielder Billy Hamilton, who broke a baseball record by stealing 155 bases in the Minor Leagues last season. He is making the transition from shortstop to the outfield, but assuming he can avoid becoming the next Dee Gordon and make enough contact to exploit his speed, he could easily be an impact player in the second half for the Reds. The other player to watch out for is left-hander Tony Cingrani. He has been downright dominant in his Minor League career so far, striking out 261 batters and allowing just 137 hits in 200 innings over the past couple of seasons. There is no spot for him in the rotation at the moment, but the Reds may choose to put him in the bullpen or call him up in case of injury. Overall grade: 7/10

Overview

This is a team that could become a dynasty. It's rotation is stacked with excellent pitchers, the line-up has studs that are ably backed by above average position players and the farm system will be providing new talent where needed. The health of Joey Votto will, as always, be a critical factor, but I see no reason why this team shouldn't be favourites for the NL Central, and possibly even an outside bet for a World Series appearance. 

Prediction: 99-63

Gif to Watch

I'm afraid I'm going to have to cheat a little and show two GIFs at this point, but they're worth it, I promise.

Well that looks worth it right? You came here looking for dazzling defensive plays, jaw-dropping curveballs and ridiculous home runs. This GIF, or perhaps the story surrounding it, is one of the coolest pieces of baseball trivia I've learnt this year. That pop-up by Joey Votto was just his second infield pop-up since the end of the 2009 season. Since 2009, there have been two more perfect games than Joey Votto infield pop-ups. To put that stat into perspective, Albert Pujols has hit more than 280 infield fly balls in his career. Not only that, but supposedly Joey Votto has only pulled a foul ball into the stands once in his major league career. But that stat is so absurd it doesn't bear thinking about.

The second GIF is, fortunately for you heat-lovers, a return to the norm:

That Aroldis Chapman fastball is nigh-on unhittable. And whilst he'll need to develop the off-speed stuff to become an elite starter, I like his chances with raw stuff like that.

Why the Cincinatti Reds are right to move Aroldis Chapman to the rotation

At the end of last season, all the talk in baseball surrounded the Nationals decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg. Baseball writers, managers and fans all weighed in with their views, which basically weighed up the advantages of protecting a young pitcher's reconstructed elbow with the disadvantages of crippling the post-season chances of the Washington Nationals. For the record, I agreed with the decision of Nats GM Mike Rizzo, but that is a discussion for a different day. The reason I bring this debate up, is because it's equivalent in the pre-season is the Reds decision to move Chapman from the bullpen to the rotation. The debate has not been as heated as the Strasburg debate was, at least not yet, but as opening day approaches, the arguments are gathering momentum.

In 2012, Aroldis Chapman was good. In fact, he was historically good. He had always had the 100mph+ fastball that made fans stay to the end, but he began to perfect the finer arts of pitching, notably location. In 2011 he walked 41 batters in 50 innings, which contributed to a good-but-not-great 1.30 WHIP. In 2012, he walked just 23 guys in 71.2 innings, and although the hit rate remained remarkably consistent, he was able to transform his WHIP to an other-wordly 0.81. Quietly, he and Craig Kimbrel delivered two of the greatest closer seasons of all time. He struck out a ridiculous 122 hitters on his way to a 1.51 ERA and 38 saves, despite spending the first month of the season as the 8th-inning man. There's no question, he was one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball last season, which of course begs the question - if it ain't broke, why fix it?

The answer is, in my opinion, perfectly simple. As a reliever, Chapman's effectiveness is limited by the number of innings he pitches. Chapman pitched 71.2 innings in 2012, or in other words, he retired 215 batters. If he became a starter, he would pitch (perhaps not this year, but at some stage you'd like to think) up to 210 innings. 210 innings is, conveniently, almost three times as many as he threw in 2012. He would retire three times as many hitters, and for that reason would be so much more valuable. Yes, of course his WHIP and ERA would probably take a hit as a result of his need to dial back the fastball in order to pitch up to 100 times in an outing, but the simple fact is that starters are always more valuable than relievers, if they can successfully make the transition.

Some relievers don't have the stuff to be effective starters, but in short bursts can be successful out of the bullpen. Of course, some people believe this could be the case with Chapman. There's no doubt about it, he'll need to make adjustments. There's no chance he could throw 100mph more than 30 times in a game, and so he'll need to dial down the velocity and pitch closer to 95mph. He also threw his fastball 88% of the time according to baseball reference, and he'll have to change that once he's pitching at a velocity hitters can actually see. But any argument that Chapman doesn't have the stuff to be a starter is foolish. He started for Cuba for several years (and successfully too) before defecting to the US. He was the Reds best starter in Spring Training last year (even if it was only Spring Training) and it's easy to overlook the fact he has an excellent slider, made more effective by his fastball. He's re-introduced a splitter to his arsenal, and catcher Miguel Olivo was impressed by his change-up in pre-season work. There are bound to be growing pains, particularly concerning the increased workload. Chapman was forced to take 10 days off his throwing programme at the back-end of last season due to arm tiredness, and these kind of problems are likely to be exacerbated by a heavy workload. But there's no doubt in my mind that Chapman provides much more value to the Reds in the rotation than in the bullpen if he can be effective.

One point that is bizarrely being used as a reason not to move Chapman is that he has proven he has the mental toughness to handle the ninth inning. This idea is absurd on two counts. The first is the idea that pitching in the ninth inning is for some reason more difficult than any of the other eight innings in baseball. The role of closer itself goes against everything we know in baseball (that's a post for another time), and even if being a closer involved some sort of special trait, the Reds possess one of these rare breeds of pitchers who don't crumble in the 9th inning in the form of Jonathan Broxton who has 111 career saves to his name. If Chapman is able to successfully transition to the rotation, he becomes a pitcher who is three times more valuable for the Reds. If he is not, then they can move him back to the bullpen next season. It can be argued that with the Reds in contention now, it is not a time to be messing about stretching out Chapman's arm, as he can provide immediate value in the 'pen. But the Reds have been set up to contend for several years, and whilst they may not get the immediate returns in 2013, he'd become immeasurably more valuable as a starter in years to come.

Put simply, this is a gamble the Reds have to try on the decent chance that it pays off. Chapman will likely post an average stat-line this season, with an elite strikeout rate, but some trouble keeping the ball in the park (a problem that may be more poignant at GABP). However, he will become a better pitcher as he learns the trade, and with the raw stuff he has, he may become a Cy Young contender in future seasons - something that will be impossible whilst he is restricted to 70 innings in the bullpen. Chapman was paid by the Reds to become a starter, and whilst this move by GM Walt Jocketty is bold, it is necessary and correct.