Well, a quick look back at that post from March provides a few chuckles and shakes of the head. They certainly were bold predictions, and for that reason a lot of them now seem laughable. Without further ado, let's look back...
1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young
Hmm. Not my best call. Gallardo got off to a terrible start, struggling through April with a 6.08 ERA. He began to turn this around after that, and only in September did his ERA rise above 4 again. However, final counting stats of 204 IP, a 3.66 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, a 16-9 record and 204 strikeouts are (whilst good) not Cy-calibre figures. His strikeout rate is still excellent, but he needs to work on consistency. Time is on his side, but for me to ever make a prediction involving him and Cy Young again, he is going to need to put together a full season of brilliance.
2. The Red Sox don't make the play-offs (again)
An excellent call on my part! Not only did the Red Sox fail to make the play-offs, they also contrived to finish bottom of the AL East with a pitiful 69-93 record. Bobby Valentine suffered immensely at the helm, and the early trade of Youkilis was only the start of a number of high-profile exits, as a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers saw Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett leave the club. Things can't get much worse for them in 2013, although they currently have a skeleton of a roster and will need to make big roster moves if they want to have a sniff at post-season baseball.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown
Almost a fantastic call. Sure, Stanton wasn't a nobody entering 2012, but his stock has risen immeasurably over the last 8 months as he put together a superb season for Miami. His final season total of 37 homers was not enough to challenge Miguel Cabrera's 44, but Stanton played just 123 games. Stanton may well have fulfilled this prediction but for an injury that sidelined him for the best part of a month and may have hampered him when he did take to the field. He is a physical freak, and despite playing in a massive stadium at the heart of a weak order he was one of the most punishing players in baseball. If he plays 160 games next season, he will smash this prediction - no way this seems all that bold now.
4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder
Hear that? It's embarrassment. Duda was horrible in 2012, failing to capitalize on what could possibly have been a full season at the heart of the Mets line-up. He started the season so poorly he was dropped to AAA in May, and failed to put it together whilst in the minors as evidenced by his weak final counting stats of .239 average with 15 homers and 57 RBI. The power has never been a problem, but Duda struck out far too much to hit for anything like a good average, and he will have to perform out of his skin in Spring Training if he wants to find himself on the Mets line-up card come opening day. Elite is a word bandied around far too much in my opinion, but in no realms of possibility could Duda be considered just that.
5. The Nationals go to the NLCS
From a terrible call to an excellent call. In the end, I fell just short in this prediction as the Nationals lost the 5-game NLDS and ultimately ended a superb year on a sour note. However, they finished the regular season with the best record in baseball, falling just shy of 100 wins. The pitching was the lynchpin of the side, and timely hitting from Zimmerman, Harper, Morse, LaRoche and Desmond among others made this team the best in the Majors, and they'll be bitterly disappointed they couldn't turn that into post-season success. However, they have a young side and should be a sure bet for another good year in 2013, it'll certainly be no bold prediction to see them play October baseball once more.
So there you have it. 3 excellent predictions and 2 extremely forgettable predictions. I had a lot of fun following these during the season, and will of course do the same thing in a few months time for 2013.
Thursday, 29 November 2012
Friday, 2 November 2012
Breaking down free agency
Although for players, fans and coaches the season has just ended, 2013 is now starting for the GMs of every Major League team. The building of a World Series champion starts now, and whilst some teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers) are perennial big spenders, it is often the shrewdest of moves that prove the most important.
Unlike last year, the number of 'big name' free agents is thin, with Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke heading the respective hitting and pitching classes. Other big names include David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Nick Swisher, Ryan Dempster, Adam LaRoche and Anibal Sanchez. As always there will be a number of trade rumours swirling too, not least around Arizona's young outfielder Justin Upton.
In terms of teams with money to spend, the Boston Red Sox have a huge amount of payroll free and several spots in a line-up to fill, so they may be active this winter. The Yankees are always looking to upgrade their roster, the Phillies will be active and you can expect both LA teams to try and build upon a high-spending 2012.
Josh Hamilton is perhaps the most intriguing free agent on the market. Aged 31, he's likely on the downward slope of his career, but as he proved in 2012 he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Off the field issues will always plague him, with his career almost over before it began due to alcohol and drug problems (see my blog post from a couple of years ago). Injuries are almost a guarantee with Hamilton too, and with his twilight years approaching, teams will be anxious that he spends more time on the field than off it. He'll likely command the highest price of all free agents too, but with good reason: in terms of raw upside there are few in baseball who can match him. His incredible power is simply unmatched, and in any ball-park he should be a lock for 30+ home runs as long as he garners 500 plate appearances. His fielding is much improved too, and he offers a good glove at any OF position, although at this stage in his career LF seems the most likely destination. I think any team would be foolish to offer him more than 3 or 4 years considering all of the question marks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see someone like the Yankees make a big money move.
Zack Greinke is another interesting name to watch during free agency. After a trade from the Brewers at the deadline this year, he was superb for the Angels in the second half and secured himself a lot of interest in the off-season. Off all the pitchers in free agency, Greinke is really the only 'ace' available, as he offers the possibility of 15-20 wins and 200 strike-outs for the next 5 seasons. Considering his fantastic half-season with them, I expect the Angels to do as much as they can to secure his services for another 3 or 4 years, but among others the Boston Red Sox are likely to be interested in him.
David Ortiz is an intriguing free agent should he hit the market. It was expected that the Red Sox would offer him another contract after two 1-year stints, but with nothing concrete yet, Ortiz may test the waters. Unlike most free agents, Ortiz is really restricted to the American League, as his services are really only useful from the Designated Hitter position. The Red Sox appear to be the best fit for Ortiz, although it wouldn't be surprising to see teams like the Angels or Blue Jays show interest. He's certainly a powerful bat that improves any line-up, and though his age is a minor concern, speed and defense have never been factors of his game, so he is about as oblivious to the effects as any player.
Two quality, young center-fielders are also likely to be popular names on the tongues of fans, as the speedy Michael Bourn and toolsy B.J. Upton will both be seeking new contracts and likely new homes this winter. Bourn enjoyed a spectacular season with the Braves, filling a big void as their lead-off hitter, and it is likely they will be keen to hold on to him for a few more years. B.J. Upton's time in Tampa Bay appears to finally have ended, and as far as upside goes, Upton could be an intriguing option, as his combination of speed, power and excellent defense make him a very attractive option for the top of a line-up card. I expect the Phillies to be interested in both players, with their center-field now vacant after the departure of Victorino.
On the mound, the pitching gets thin after Zack Greinke with the exception of Kyle Lohse. The 33 year old right-hander enjoyed the best year of his career in 2012 with the Cardinals, leading the NL in ERA for much of the season and ending up as one of the front-runners for the Cy Young award. His command has been impeccable, and for the team that ends up acquiring him, there should be a good few years of ace-quality pitching from Lohse. If Zack Greinke signs early, expect the price of Lohse to increase significantly as he becomes the best available free-agent arm, although at the moment teams may be looking for a bargain as the big-spenders hold out in the hope of getting Greinke.
My free-agent predictions
Josh Hamilton - Rangers (although if they don't resign him then Yankees)
Zack Greinke - Angels
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Mike Napoli - Marlins (although the Nationals would make sense in my opinion)
Kyle Lohse - Blue Jays
BJ Upton - Phillies
Michael Bourn - Braves
Delmon Young - Twins
Ichiro - Yankees
Nick Swisher - Pirates
Ryan Dempster - Orioles
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
Don't feel confident about any of them though...
Unlike last year, the number of 'big name' free agents is thin, with Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke heading the respective hitting and pitching classes. Other big names include David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Kyle Lohse, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Delmon Young, Ichiro, Nick Swisher, Ryan Dempster, Adam LaRoche and Anibal Sanchez. As always there will be a number of trade rumours swirling too, not least around Arizona's young outfielder Justin Upton.
In terms of teams with money to spend, the Boston Red Sox have a huge amount of payroll free and several spots in a line-up to fill, so they may be active this winter. The Yankees are always looking to upgrade their roster, the Phillies will be active and you can expect both LA teams to try and build upon a high-spending 2012.
Josh Hamilton is perhaps the most intriguing free agent on the market. Aged 31, he's likely on the downward slope of his career, but as he proved in 2012 he still has plenty of pop in his bat. Off the field issues will always plague him, with his career almost over before it began due to alcohol and drug problems (see my blog post from a couple of years ago). Injuries are almost a guarantee with Hamilton too, and with his twilight years approaching, teams will be anxious that he spends more time on the field than off it. He'll likely command the highest price of all free agents too, but with good reason: in terms of raw upside there are few in baseball who can match him. His incredible power is simply unmatched, and in any ball-park he should be a lock for 30+ home runs as long as he garners 500 plate appearances. His fielding is much improved too, and he offers a good glove at any OF position, although at this stage in his career LF seems the most likely destination. I think any team would be foolish to offer him more than 3 or 4 years considering all of the question marks, but it wouldn't surprise me to see someone like the Yankees make a big money move.
Zack Greinke is another interesting name to watch during free agency. After a trade from the Brewers at the deadline this year, he was superb for the Angels in the second half and secured himself a lot of interest in the off-season. Off all the pitchers in free agency, Greinke is really the only 'ace' available, as he offers the possibility of 15-20 wins and 200 strike-outs for the next 5 seasons. Considering his fantastic half-season with them, I expect the Angels to do as much as they can to secure his services for another 3 or 4 years, but among others the Boston Red Sox are likely to be interested in him.
David Ortiz is an intriguing free agent should he hit the market. It was expected that the Red Sox would offer him another contract after two 1-year stints, but with nothing concrete yet, Ortiz may test the waters. Unlike most free agents, Ortiz is really restricted to the American League, as his services are really only useful from the Designated Hitter position. The Red Sox appear to be the best fit for Ortiz, although it wouldn't be surprising to see teams like the Angels or Blue Jays show interest. He's certainly a powerful bat that improves any line-up, and though his age is a minor concern, speed and defense have never been factors of his game, so he is about as oblivious to the effects as any player.
Two quality, young center-fielders are also likely to be popular names on the tongues of fans, as the speedy Michael Bourn and toolsy B.J. Upton will both be seeking new contracts and likely new homes this winter. Bourn enjoyed a spectacular season with the Braves, filling a big void as their lead-off hitter, and it is likely they will be keen to hold on to him for a few more years. B.J. Upton's time in Tampa Bay appears to finally have ended, and as far as upside goes, Upton could be an intriguing option, as his combination of speed, power and excellent defense make him a very attractive option for the top of a line-up card. I expect the Phillies to be interested in both players, with their center-field now vacant after the departure of Victorino.
On the mound, the pitching gets thin after Zack Greinke with the exception of Kyle Lohse. The 33 year old right-hander enjoyed the best year of his career in 2012 with the Cardinals, leading the NL in ERA for much of the season and ending up as one of the front-runners for the Cy Young award. His command has been impeccable, and for the team that ends up acquiring him, there should be a good few years of ace-quality pitching from Lohse. If Zack Greinke signs early, expect the price of Lohse to increase significantly as he becomes the best available free-agent arm, although at the moment teams may be looking for a bargain as the big-spenders hold out in the hope of getting Greinke.
My free-agent predictions
Josh Hamilton - Rangers (although if they don't resign him then Yankees)
Zack Greinke - Angels
David Ortiz - Red Sox
Mike Napoli - Marlins (although the Nationals would make sense in my opinion)
Kyle Lohse - Blue Jays
BJ Upton - Phillies
Michael Bourn - Braves
Delmon Young - Twins
Ichiro - Yankees
Nick Swisher - Pirates
Ryan Dempster - Orioles
Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Anibal Sanchez - Tigers
Don't feel confident about any of them though...
SF Giants: The making of champions
Just 2 years after clinching a remarkable World Series championship in Arlington, the Giants returned to the biggest stage in baseball and won it all again, crushing the hapless Tigers 4-0 in what turned out to be an underwhelming finale. As in 2010, the Giants were given few thoughts at the start of the season, and start of the post-season, but they continued to show that it is not big names and lusty hitting that wins rings...
In the eyes of many, the lack of a potent line-up would always restrict the win likelihood for a team endowed with strong starting pitching. When Tim Lincecum contrived to suffer the worst season of his professional career, a repeat of 2011 looked all too likely, when run support was a constant problem for a feeble hitting line-up in a cavernous ballpark. However, despite the struggling ways of Lincecum and inconsistent pitching of veteran left-hander Barry Zito, the rotation remained one of the best in the Major Leagues. Ace Matt Cain continued his meteoric rise in the NL, becoming one of the best starters in baseball, as highlighted by his perfect game against the Astros. Young left-hander Madison Bumgarner continued his stellar career so far with a string of big performances whilst veteran rightie Ryan Vogelsong built on a strong 2011 to show that he had really turned his career around and become one of the most underrated players in baseball.
On the offensive side of the diamond, there were still considerable deficiencies. The remarkable comeback of Buster Posey from a harrowing injury suffered at the plate last season was made more astonishing by an MVP calibre performance with the bat, after a stunning 2nd half of the season propelled him to a batting title. Young third baseman Pablo Sandoval continued to prove that when he's hot, he's one of the best pure hitters in baseball, but plate discipline and defensive issues always held him back. Young first baseman Brandon Belt finally got a full season to himself in the heart of the Giants order and after a slow start, he turned it around to become one of the more consistent players in the line-up. The mid-season acquisitions of Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro proved pivotal, as the latter in particular had a sublime second half and post-season to become one of the first names on the team-sheet.
However, the real strengths of the team lay in defence and bullpen. Buster Posey was immaculate behind the plate despite worries he wouldn't be able to withstand the gruelling demands of a full season. Brandon Belt put in a gold-glove calibre show at 1st base, Marco Scutaro was excellent at second and Brandon Crawford was simply sublime at shortstop. The outfield was strong, led by superb center-fielder Angel Pagan who made the cavernous AT&T outfield his own. Although defense tends to be a stat that is easily overlooked on a game-to-game or series-to-series basis, the gulf in quality between the Giants and Tigers defense was evident in the World Series, when Giants infielders continued to rob the slow Tigers line-up. Out of the 'pen, Sergio Romo was simply unhittable all season in place of the injured Brian Wilson, and veterans like Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Casilla combined with the sublime decision by Bruce Bochy to put Tim Lincecum in the bullpen for the playoffs to make an extremely tough bullpen to hit.
Once again, the Giants were able to prove that 120 million dollar players do not make a team. Excellent starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, fantastic fielding and enough hitting can get the job done consistently, and when it comes to things like 'intangibles', the Giants seem to have them in excess. Not to mention the fact that AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful sports venues in the world.
In the eyes of many, the lack of a potent line-up would always restrict the win likelihood for a team endowed with strong starting pitching. When Tim Lincecum contrived to suffer the worst season of his professional career, a repeat of 2011 looked all too likely, when run support was a constant problem for a feeble hitting line-up in a cavernous ballpark. However, despite the struggling ways of Lincecum and inconsistent pitching of veteran left-hander Barry Zito, the rotation remained one of the best in the Major Leagues. Ace Matt Cain continued his meteoric rise in the NL, becoming one of the best starters in baseball, as highlighted by his perfect game against the Astros. Young left-hander Madison Bumgarner continued his stellar career so far with a string of big performances whilst veteran rightie Ryan Vogelsong built on a strong 2011 to show that he had really turned his career around and become one of the most underrated players in baseball.
On the offensive side of the diamond, there were still considerable deficiencies. The remarkable comeback of Buster Posey from a harrowing injury suffered at the plate last season was made more astonishing by an MVP calibre performance with the bat, after a stunning 2nd half of the season propelled him to a batting title. Young third baseman Pablo Sandoval continued to prove that when he's hot, he's one of the best pure hitters in baseball, but plate discipline and defensive issues always held him back. Young first baseman Brandon Belt finally got a full season to himself in the heart of the Giants order and after a slow start, he turned it around to become one of the more consistent players in the line-up. The mid-season acquisitions of Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro proved pivotal, as the latter in particular had a sublime second half and post-season to become one of the first names on the team-sheet.
However, the real strengths of the team lay in defence and bullpen. Buster Posey was immaculate behind the plate despite worries he wouldn't be able to withstand the gruelling demands of a full season. Brandon Belt put in a gold-glove calibre show at 1st base, Marco Scutaro was excellent at second and Brandon Crawford was simply sublime at shortstop. The outfield was strong, led by superb center-fielder Angel Pagan who made the cavernous AT&T outfield his own. Although defense tends to be a stat that is easily overlooked on a game-to-game or series-to-series basis, the gulf in quality between the Giants and Tigers defense was evident in the World Series, when Giants infielders continued to rob the slow Tigers line-up. Out of the 'pen, Sergio Romo was simply unhittable all season in place of the injured Brian Wilson, and veterans like Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Casilla combined with the sublime decision by Bruce Bochy to put Tim Lincecum in the bullpen for the playoffs to make an extremely tough bullpen to hit.
Once again, the Giants were able to prove that 120 million dollar players do not make a team. Excellent starting pitching, a shutdown bullpen, fantastic fielding and enough hitting can get the job done consistently, and when it comes to things like 'intangibles', the Giants seem to have them in excess. Not to mention the fact that AT&T Park is one of the most beautiful sports venues in the world.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)