30 in 30: Chicago Cubs

Six days into the 30 in 30 challenge, and we finished our tour of the NL West yesterday with the San Francisco Giants. We now move to the NL Central, and start with the team that has had the longest championship drought of any professional North American sports team (104 years). Is this the year for the Chicago Cubs?

2012 Season

The best way to sum up the 2012 season for the Chicago Cubs is poor, but not disappointing. The Cubs won just 61 games as they secured themselves the second overall pick in this years draft, but little more was expected of a team that is most definitely in the 'rebuild' phase. There were highlights, with Starlin Castro continuing to impress at shortstop, playing 162 games in the process, and first baseman Anthony Rizzo excelled in his short time in the Major Leagues, suggesting he can be an all-star calibre player for years to come. The Cubs also sent away any remaining veterans mid way through the season, with Ryan Dempster, Geovany Soto and Paul Maholm all shipped off to contending teams.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, Kyuji Fujikawa, Scott Hairston, Nate Schierholtz, Brian Bogusevic
OUT: Bryan LaHair, Chris Volstad, Joe Mather

Overview: The Cubs potentially have the payroll to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but GM Theo Epstein is aware that this a team built with 2015 in mind and so there were no major splashes this off-season. I do love what moves they have made though. They paid Edwin Jackson $52 million dollars for a four-year contract, which may seem excessive given his career 4.40 ERA. He's a strikeout pitcher however, and at age 29 you'd like to think he can give them four years of solid and consistent production, without the insane cost. I love the signings of Feldman and Baker, both on one-year contracts. If they produce, fantastic, and if they don't, no harm done for the Cubs. Fujikawa appears to be the closer-in-waiting assuming he can make the switch to the Major Leagues, and Hairston, Schierholtz and Bogusevic will provide useful bats at little cost. The Cubs made clever signings, refusing to spend too much, and I think these moves allow them to field a serviceable team in 2013 without damaging their chances further down the line. Overall grade: 7/10

Expected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
CF	David DeJesus	.345/.389/1.4
SS	Starlin Castro	.346/.448/3.9
1B	Anthony Rizzo	.346/.517/4.0
LF	Alfonso Soriano	.304/.462/1.9
RF	Nate Schierholtz	.321/.425/0.7
3B	Ian Stewart	.327/.427/0.3
C	Welington Castillo	.316/.423/1.7
2B	Darwin Barney	.311/.357/2.3

Expected rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Jeff Samardzija	193/3.78/3.3
2	Edwin Jackson	199/3.98/3.3
3	Matt Garza	198/3.68/2.6
4	Scott Feldman	101/4.19/1.3
5	Travis Wood	196/3.90/1.5

Position Players

The two key players in this line-up are shortstop Starlin Castro and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Castro's average dipped a little last season after two years around .300 to .280, and the rising number of strikeouts will be a concern for a player that has little power. However, he has good speed, swiping 25 bags last season (and getting thrown out 13 times) and has shown signs that he can grow into power after his 14 bombs last year. Anthony Rizzo struggled mightily in his small stint with San Diego, but excelled last year in his 87 games, hitting .285 with 15 homers and drawing some walks. He looks set to be the cornerstone of this franchise for years to come.

Alfonso Soriano hit an impressive 31 homers last season, but doesn't have on-base skills or speed to be much more than a power threat as the Cubs try to offload his massive contract. Schierholtz and DeJesus are useful, but unlikely to be the long term solution at either position. Darwin Barney is generally considered one of the best fielding second basemen in the Majors, but his bat is yet to really come round. If he can get on base in one-third of at-bats then the Cubs will be more than happy. Welington Castillo and Dioner Navarro will split time behind the plate and Ian Stewart will be a stop-gap option at third base as they wait for Josh Vitters to take on the full-time role. This is a team with promise, but little in the way of firepower. Anthony Rizzo could be ready for a breakout season, but he can't do it all by himself. Overall grade: 3/10

Pitching

The rotation has actually turned from an area of weakness to an area of potential strength after the wise off-season dealings. Samardzija was extremely impressive at times last season, and will look to build off of those outings and become the staff's ace. Matt Garza was blighted by injuries and may miss the beginning of this season, but on his day he can lead a rotation. Edwin Jackson has never really found the consistency he needed to make his stuff play up at the Major League level, but the Cubs will be hoping he is finally able to find a groove. Feldman and Wood won't set anyone alight, but can be solid innings-eaters at Wrigley which is all the Cubs need at this stage. Carlos Villanueva and Scott Baker will look for rotation spots with strong Springs or injuries, so the Cubs will be hoping they can get quality innings from this group of 2-3 win players.

The bullpen has long been an area of weakness for the Cubs, a weakness exemplified by the occasionally sublime but consistently wild Carlos Marmol. Marmol walked 45 hitters in 55 innings on his way to a 1.54 WHIP last season, but was still able to strike out 72 and save 20 games. A trade may well be imminent for Marmol, and the heir apparent will be 32 year old Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa. Fujikawa was a shutdown closer in Japan for the past 5 or 6 seasons with 220 saves, and will look to take his explosive stuff to Chicago. Shawn Camp was a workhorse out of the bullpen for the Cubs last season as he led the NL in appearances, and left-hander James Russell has quietly become one of the best lefty-specialists in the game. The man to watch in Spring Training is likely to be former top prospect Michael Bowden, who had a 1.33 ERA in the second half of last season and will be looking for a bullpen job this year. Overall, this is a team that has good depth, but no ace. They will keep the team competitive, but probably won't win any games on their own, and whilst the bullpen is improving, a 9th inning with Carlos Marmol at the helm won't fill any Cubs fans with confidence. Overall grade: 5/10

Prospects

Javier Baez is the most exciting player in the Cubs farm system, with incredible bat speed and fantastic raw power. He has patience issues, and is yet to play any higher than A-ball, so it will be a few seasons before he is playing at Wrigley Field, but he may give Cubs management a nice shortstop problem to deal with. Arodys Vizcaino, who arrived in the Paul Maholm trade, will be looking to bounce-back from surgery that made him miss the entire 2012 season and may earn a September call-up. Josh Vitters had a small taste of Major League baseball last season, and will likely earn reps in place of Ian Stewart at some point this season. All other top prospects are still a few seasons away, so their 2013 impact will be limited at best. Overall grade: 4/10

Overview

The Cubs are headed in a clear direction, and whilst that looks like it could work in the long term, the 2013 product is not a competitive one. With no Houston Astros to beat up on in the division, the Cubs may be set for another year trying to avoid losing 100 games, although the off-season acquisitions make me optimistic that they can compete in most games. I like the core of their team, but there are clear deficiencies in the players that surround them, so another year dwelling at the bottom of the NL Central appears likely.

Prediction: 67-95

Gif to Watch

One of the defensive highlights of the season for the Chicago Cubs will have been Starlin Castro's quick thinking bare handed catch on an outfield pop-up. He'll be looking to flash the leather once again in 2013.

30 in 30: San Francisco Giants

And to finish our tour of the NL West, we head to the bay to pay the World Series champion San Francisco Giants a visit...

2012 Season

Entering the 2012 season, there weren't many who gave the Giants a chance for a World Series ring. They had missed out on the 2011 post-season entirely, and entered 2012 with few changes to the roster. But then, there weren't many who expected Buster Posey to make a full recovery from a horrific injury, never mind win the National League MVP award. And there were perhaps fewer who expected Melky Cabrera to lead the league in batting average and consequently be banned for 50 games for PED use. Throughout the saga, the pitching remained a constant strength, with Matt Cain's perfect game a particular highlight. In the post-season, the Giants produced the stuff of legends, coming back from 0-2 down to beat the Cincinnati Reds and coming back from 1-3 down to beat the St. Louis Cardinals before taking apart the Detroit Tigers in a World Series whitewash.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Tony Abreu, Andres Torres, Ramon Ramirez

OUT: Melky Cabrera, Brian Wilson, Clay Hensley

Overview: Another quiet season for the Giants, who did most of their work in re-signing players, notably Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro. Andres Torres gives them more outfield depth with the departure of Cabrera, and Ramon Ramirez will be a handy bullpen arm. This team still appears to lack a few big hitters, but they have continued to prove that you don't need high-paid studs to win championships, and a status-quo off-season is no less than I expected. Overall grade: 4/10

Expected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
CF	Angel Pagan	.332/.403/2.8
2B	Marco Scutaro	.344/.378/1.3
3B	Pablo Sandoval	.356/.498/3.4
C	Buster Posey	.400/.534/6.2
RF	Hunter Pence	.338/.464/1.5
1B	Brandon Belt	.374/.463/2.2
LF	Gregor Blanco	.346/.328/0.8
SS	Brandon Crawford	.306/.351/1.2

Expected rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Matt Cain	226/2.95/4.7
2	Madison Bumgarner	203/3.37/5.0
3	Ryan Vogelsong	185/3.75/2.5
4	Tim Lincecum	197/3.47/3.6
5	Barry Zito	192/3.94/1.2

Position Players

The line-up has a number of different cogs that all play a key role. The clear stand-out in this line-up is reigning NL MVP Buster Posey, who was a behemoth at the heart of the Giants line-up last season, winning the batting title thanks to a monster second half in which he hit .385 after the all-star break. Regression is to be expected, but Posey is a rare breed of hitter who makes contact, has power and plays superb defense. The 6.2 WAR projection is high, but wholly fair. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval could be a game-changer if he could stay on the field and avoid the crippling cold slumps. Meanwhile Hunter Pence will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2012 campaign.

Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro were revelations atop the line-up last year, but both played well beyond their ability and will regress towards the mean this season. I think Brandon Belt is ready to break out, as he started to show signs of turning it around at the plate towards the end of last season (.349 average in August, .316 in September). Brandon Crawford will never be a great producer at the plate, but he's the best defensive short-stop in the major leagues not named Brendan Ryan and has shown signs of improvement with the lumber. Overall grade: 7/10

Pitching

The rotation is a clear strength for this team, and is ably led by Matt Cain, who put up Cy-calibre numbers last season. Pitching in AT&T helps him, but there is no-one in the NL more consistent in recent seasons. Behind him, Bumgarner has shown glimpses of brilliance, and after fading a little down the stretch last season he once again turned it around on the biggest stage in the World Series. He's quietly turning into an ace in his own right, and the 5 WAR projection from ZiPS suggests this is the season he puts it all together. The real enigma is Tim Lincecum, who struggled last season after being a perennial Cy Young contender up to 2011. The projections suggest he can rediscover his old form, but the Giants will be wary as his 5.18 ERA last season was by far the worst of pitchers with 180+ innings.

In the 'pen, the loss of Brian Wilson was ably covered by the superb performances from Sergio Romo. Armed with a devastating slider, Romo showed he could pitch the ninth as well as the eighth inning and his 1.79 ERA and 0.85 WHIP prove he is one of the finest relievers in the game. Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez and Santiago Casilla all fill crucial roles for the Giants who had one of the best bullpens in baseball last season. If they can repeat those kind of performances again this season, then pitching will be an area of considerable strength for the Giants. Overall grade: 9/10

Prospects

The Giants are armed with a farm full of pitching prospects to ably back up the pitching-heavy Major League talent. The player most likely to make an impact this season is closer-in-the-making Heath Hembree, who will likely play a part in the bullpen as they mould him to become the 9th inning man. Other than that, it appears most talent is a little while away, and Giants fans will be hoping they are worth the wait. Overall grade: 3/10

Overview

Winning two World Series in three years is no fluke, and the Giants deserve a lot of respect for doing so with a team that may not match the high-spenders on paper. The pitching will continue to be an area of strength, with Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner ready for Cy Young-esque seasons. However, the offensive production rests considerably on the shoulders of Buster Posey, and he is unable to repeat they may find the 2011 struggles on offense repeat themselves. I like them to win the division though, they have a better 'team' feel than the Dodgers, and have the 2-3 win players that make a Championship team.

Prediction: 94-68

Gif to Watch

Remember how I told you about Sergio Romo's devastating slider? See for yourself...

30 in 30: San Diego Padres

Continuing our tour of the NL West, we head to the coast and visit the San Diego Padres.

2012 Season

The Padres got off to an awful start in 2012, compiling a 20-41 record through the first 61 games, worst in the Major Leagues. However, they rebounded, and despite going 5-10 in their last 15 games, they were 42-33 after the all-star break on their way to a 76-86 record. The bright spot of the year was undoubtedly the production of third baseman Chase Headley. He finished 5th in MVP voting and won a gold-glove as part of a break-out season in which he led the NL in runs batted in. Everth Cabrera also led the NL in stolen bases, and rookie catcher Yasmani Grandal made a promising start but has since been suspended for PED usage. The rotation was a problem all season for the Padres, as they used 15 different starting pitchers, and were never able to really get any sort of consistency going.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Freddy Garcia, Tyson Ross, Cody Ransom, the Petco Park fences
OUT: Andy Parrino, Andrew Werner, Ross Ohlendorf

Overview: Overall, it was an extremely quiet off-season for the Padres. The year before they traded away star pitcher Mat Latos for a number of prospects, but this season they made few changes to the roster. Perhaps the biggest off-season move was bringing in the fences at Petco Park. The stadium had generated a reputation as an extreme pitcher park, so making it slightly smaller should allow for a bit more offensive production. Overall grade: 2/10.

Expected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
SS	Everth Cabrera	.329/.340/1.1
2B	Logan Forsythe	.352/.376/0.7
3B	Chase Headley	.365/.454/3.9
LF	Carlos Quentin	.350/.495/1.9
1B	Yonder Alonso	.360/.438/0.9
RF	Will Venable	.324/.405/1.4
CF	Cameron Maybin	.333/.397/2.4
C	Nick Hundley	.299/.373/0.8

Expected rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Clayton Richard	212/3.78/1.7
2	Edinson Volquez	165/3.98/1.9
3	Eric Stults	78/3.92/0.9
4	Anthony Bass	132/3.61/1.0
5	Casey Kelly	127/4.25/1.5

Position Players

Chase Headley will once more be relied upon to lead this offense, and the projections seem to suggest he has a good chance to do this, even if regression is due. If he is able to get off to a hot-start I think the Padres should cash in and trade him to a contender in return for a healthy haul of prospects. Behind him Carlos Quentin will try to take advantage of the smaller dimensions and he could be an underrated player this season assuming the skills are intact. Atop the line-up, Everth Cabrera didn't have a great OBP last season (.324) but the Padres will likely take their chances that he could improve considering his elite speed. 

Yonder Alonso was the top prospect the Padres received in the Mat Latos deal, but was underwhelming in his first full season, hitting 9 home runs, although the OBP gives reason for optimism (.348). If he can turn some of his 39 doubles into big flies then he could find himself with a more balanced stat line at the end of the season. Young catcher Yasmani Grandal will spend the first 50 games suspended, so Nick Hundley gets a chance to prove he's anything better than replacement level. Cameron Maybin plays elite defense out in cavernous center-field, but the bat is yet to truly arrive and he'll need to make better contact to tap in to that 40-steal potential. Overall this is a line-up of bit-part players, that has some toolsy guys but lacking an elite slugger if Headley can't repeat. There is some upside here, but it may be a few seasons until the younger guys progress when this line-up can truly excel. Overall grade: 4/10

Pitching

Richard has kept his ERA below 4 for each of the past three seasons, and last seasons 218 innings suggest he can be the workhorse the rotation needs. He gave up a worrying 228 hits, however, and whilst the walk rate was low the lack of swing-and-miss stuff suggests he may be a product of cavernous Petco Park. Eric Stults was the surprise 2012 package, as his second half performances made him the best pitcher in the San Diego rotation with an ERA under 3, although he may find himself replaced when Luebke returns. Anthony Bass was superb in the early part of the season for the Padres, with an ERA at 2.30 through the first month. However, he struggled from then onward and may be forced into the bullpen rather than rotation in 2013. Finally Casey Kelly is a high-end prospect who wasn't particularly impressive in his small taste of big league action last season, but will be hoping a full-time role in the rotation will allow him to get into a groove. He is also reportedly one of the finest fielding pitching prospects ever to play in the Major Leagues, so the athleticism on the mound may be something to look out for in the highlights. 

Jason Marquis and Freddy Garcia give rotation depth, but two guys to watch will be Cory Luebke and Andrew Cashner. The former is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but is expected to play a part in the second half of the season and his performances so far in the big leagues suggest he could become a top-of-the-rotation guy for San Diego. Cashner has outstanding raw stuff, fuelled mostly by a fastball that runs into the upper-90s and beyond but has struggled with command issues and may start the season in the bullpen.

The bullpen is led by three elite relievers. Huston Street can be a dominant reliever on his day, as his 0.72 WHIP and 1.85 ERA last season attest to. His problem has always been staying healthy, which he struggled with in 2012, but if he can stay on the mound he is an elite option at the back end of games. He is ably backed up by Luke Gregerson, who shaved his ERA down to 2.39 as the eighth-inning man with a strikeout per inning and impressive 1.8 WAR tribute to his increasing success. Finally, the 32 year-old Dale Thayer was strong in his first season as a Padre, and is another good option at the end of games. Brad Boxberger was superb in his small taste of action last season, and Tom Layne will need to step up as the lefty specialist. Overall I think the rotation lacks an ace at the moment, but has a lot of depth, and if everything goes to plan it could be a strong point for the Padres. The bullpen was superb last season and will look to keep that work going in the competitive NL West. Overall grade: 6/10.

Prospects

The team has a stacked farm system, although a lot of its stars made the jump to the big leagues last season. The aforementioned Casey Kelly will get a chance to be a Major League starter and a hot Spring from Jedd Gyorko could have him forced in at second base, although there are questions surrounding his glove at that position. Other than that it is likely to be bullpen help and September call-ups for this talented system, so whilst the future is bright, it may be a few years until the young players come to fruition. Overall grade: 7/10.

Overview

There is a clear gulf in class between the Padres and the Giants/Dodgers, particularly in the line-up, and if they are out of contention in August then it would make sense for them to trade Headley and take the prospects. I like their rotation and bullpen a lot, even if the most promising players are not bookmarked to start the year in the rotation at the moment. The second half of 2012 showed what this team can do, and whilst I think they are a few seasons away from true contention, they should easily be good enough to stay above the Rockies.

Prediction: 78-84

Gif to Watch

Everth Cabrera will be given a chance at short-stop everyday because of his electric speed and plus defense. This gutsy steal of home when Kenley Jansen was napping led to a pair of San Diego runs and shows the impact he can have when on the bases (also check the umpire calling him out).

The other play to watch is this remarkable defensive effort to rob Justin Upton. Unfortunately I couldn't find the GIF!

30 in 30: Los Angeles Dodgers

With the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies out the way, we move into California to the city of Los Angeles where high-spending Dodgers reside.

2012 Season

2012 was a 'what-if' season for the Dodgers. Their star player, Matt Kemp, struggled with injuries and was able to play in just 106 games. Much-hyped shortstop Dee Gordon struggled to get on base and was largely unable to utilise his base-stealing skills. However, the real story of the 2012 season came on August 25th, when the Dodgers pulled off a huge trade with the Red Sox, bringing in Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford in exchange for some top-level prospects and a whole lot of salary relief. This trade was preceded by a four-player deal with the Marlins that saw shortstop Hanley Ramirez move to LA, so the team that finished the 2012 season was a lot different to the one that started it. Despite this, the team finished 86-76, eight games out in the NL West race and two games out of the wildcard race.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, J.P. Howell, Skip Schumaker
OUT: Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Randy Choate, Juan Rivera

Overview: After missing out on Prince Fielder last year, the Dodgers were determined to get their man this season, and they did just that, signing Zack Greinke to a six year, $147 million contract. They also signed Korean lefty Ryu to a six year, $36 million dollar contract. The rotation had been a problem for the Dodgers at times last season, and these moves clearly go some way to fixing that. A one-two punch of Kershaw and Greinke is formidable and Ryu is part of a good deal of rotation strength. This off-season was an excellent follow-up to the mid-season trades, as Dodgers ownership began to stamp its authority on the team. Overall grade: 8/10

Expected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
2B	Mark Ellis	.317/.361/1.4
LF	Carl Crawford	.318/.413/1.7
CF	Matt Kemp	.363/.521/4.7
1B	Adrian Gonzalez	.377/.502/3.9
SS	Hanley Ramirez	.356/.470/3.0
RF	Andre Ethier	.359/.465/1.9
3B	Luis Cruz	.287/.390/1.9
C	A.J. Ellis	.368/.375/1.8
Util/2B	Skip Schumaker	.337/.358/-0.3

Expected rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Clayton Kershaw	221/2.65/6.4
2	Zack Greinke	222/3.45/5.3
3	Josh Beckett	174/3.26/2.3
4	Hyun-Jin Ryu	180/3.99/1.6
5	Aaron Harang	173/4.53/1.4

Position Players

My immediate thoughts when looking at the projections are that the top of the Dodgers line-up looks weak. Lead-off was a problem position for the Dodgers this year, and they seem to be willing to go with a platoon of Mark Ellis and Skip Schumaker atop the order. Hanley hasn't had an OBP above .333 since 2010, so I think the projection in that regard may be optimistic. I think A.J. Ellis is an underrated player for the Dodgers, he draws a lot of walks and has steadily improved over the last few seasons. He has all the desired traits of a lead-off hitter in my opinion, but the Dodgers seem reluctant to try that experiment.

Keeping Matt Kemp healthy and productive will be a priority for the Dodgers. At his best, he can be a 5, 6 possibly 7 win player and MVP candidate, but he will need to stay healthy to fulfil that potential. Adrian Gonzalez has settled into a groove as a .300 hitter, but the power was surprisingly reduced in Boston, and he'll look to get back towards the 35-homer mark in the NL West again. When healthy and productive, Crawford can be a spark-plug atop the order, but recovering from Tommy-John surgery may limit both his playing time and production. Overall, this is a team with a lot of upside, but the potential to be a bust. I think they need more high-OBP hitters, in particular a true lead-off guy before they can truly become an elite group of hitters. Overall grade: 8/10

Pitching

From an area of relative weakness, the Dodgers now have a dearth of starting pitching. As well as the five listed above, they can call on the production of Chris Capuano (who posted a 3.72 ERA and 1.8 WAR last season), Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly. Although the latter pair are recovering from injuries, they are still potentially productive starters, and so it wouldn't a surprised to see someone dealt before the start of the season. Atop the rotation, Clayton Kershaw has become the best pitcher in the National League and a perennial Cy Young contender, and he should be ably supported by Zack Greinke. Ryu is a bit of an unknown at the moment, but he pitched well in Korea and the Dodgers will be hoping he can become an innings-eater. Beckett has endured a lot of criticism over his performances in recent years, but actually pitched well for the Dodgers at the end of last season, and could be an underrated arm in the rotation.

The bullpen will be led by closer Brandon League, who signed a 3 year contract in the off-season. He will be ably backed up by Kenley Jansen, who excelled as closer last season before sitting out September with a heart issue. Ronald Belisario was an underrated pitcher last season for the Dodgers, and new acquisition J.P. Howell will become the lefty specialist. With all that rotation depth, the Dodgers won't be hard-pressed to find long-relief pitchers, so it appears the bullpen will be an area of considerable strength for the boys in blue. Overall grade: 9/10

Prospects

Yasiel Puig is a big strong Cuban slugger who profiles as a corner outfielder despite spending most of his time in center. He may well take the place of Andre Ethier in a few seasons time, or even share a platoon with him by September, but the Dodgers don't have enough room in their outfield to accommodate him yet. Other than that, it appears it will just be bullpen help coming from rookies this season, with lefties Paco Rodriguez and Chris Reed perhaps earning their spots on the big-league roster with impressive springs. The Dodgers system has rather been decimated by their trading however, so any major talent is a few seasons away at best. Overall grade: 4/10

Overview

This is a team that has been constructed to win, and win now. Last season was a big disappointment for the Dodgers, who will be hoping that a new-look line-up can propel them to an NL West crown. The health of Kemp and performance of Greinke will be key factors, but I like their chances to at least push the Giants all the way, with a wildcard spot an absolute must if they're unable to win the division.

Prediction: 92-70

Gif to Watch

Whereas for some teams I may have to spend some time looking around before I find a quirky GIF, that simply isn't necessary for the Dodgers. One of the main reasons Kershaw has become the finest pitcher in the NL is his devastating curveball:

Phwoar.

30 in 30: Colorado Rockies

One 2013 preview in the bag, 29 to go! And continuing in the NL West we cross states from Arizona to Colorado and the Rockies.

2012 Season

It was another lost season for the Colorado Rockies. They came out of it with the worst record in franchise history, narrowly avoided the ignominy of losing 100 games as they ended the season with a 64-98 record. The pitching rotation struggled mightily playing in the thin air of Coors Field, and the team actually tried a 4-man rotation on a 75 pitch limit at one stage. There were some bright spots, notably strong rookie performances from Wilin Rosario, Josh Rutledge and Jordan Pacheco, but the Rockies will be hoping the only way is up from here.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Wilton Lopez, Chris Volstad, Yorvit Torrealba, Ryan Wheeler, Walt Weiss

OUT: Alex White, Matt Reynolds, Jason Giambi, Jim Tracy

Overview: An eerily quiet off-season for the Rockies. The biggest move they made was likely getting rid of Jim Tracy and bringing in former player Walt Weiss to manage the team. Wilton Lopez gives them some help in the bullpen, but Alex White was a high-upside arm who could have been part of the rotation. Other than that it's the departure of some older players, and the arrival of some others. Maybe Yorvit Torrealba will help with Rosario's development. Overall grade: 2/10.

Expected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
CF	Dexter Fowler	.369/.436/3.9
2B	Josh Rutledge	.308/.465/3.6
LF	Carlos Gonzalez	.362/.516/4.9
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	.372/.522/5.3
RF	Michael Cuddyer	.333/.447/2.2
1B	Todd Helton	.383/.425/1.4
C	Wilin Rosario	.303/.514/2.6
3B	Jordan Pacheco	.330/.402/1.4

Expected rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Jhoulys Chacin	163/3.92/1.2
2	Jorge de la Rosa	151/4.23/0.4
3	Jeff Francis	164/4.55/0.9
4	Juan Nicasio	106/4.25/1.4
5	Drew Pomeranz	134/4.96/1.0

Position Players

The strength of the team is clearly in the line-up. Troy Tulowitzki will be looking to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2012 season and once more establish himself as the top shortstop in the game. I like his chances of doing so, and apparently so do ZiPS who give him a healthy 5.3 WAR projection. I think Josh Rutledge's projections seem a little optimistic, although the WAR is bumped up by a surprising positive defensive rating projection, despite the fact he was pretty poor at shortstop last season.

I'd be surprised if Helton ends the season as the first baseman, as young slugger Tyler Colvin looked promising last season and should be given a chance against right-handed pitching, possibly in a platoon with Cuddyer too. Rosario will be a good bet to lead all catchers in the home run department, but his propensity for strikeouts and shoddy defense have the projection systems understandably wary. This is a line-up that strongly depends on the production of Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, which can be a weakness when one or both struggle with injuries, as was the case last year. If the Rockies are out of contention, expect the whole team to be shopped in August, because it's clear this team needs serious rebuilding work. Overall grade: 6/10.

Pitching

The rotation has long been an issue for this Colorado team. Pitching at Coors Field is extremely difficult, as breaking pitches don't break and routine fly balls just don't come down in the thin air. The clear issue with the rotation that can be discerned from the projections is a simple lack of innings. The rotation does not have a workhorse who can get through 200 innings year after year. Pomeranz is a decent talent who has yet to show he can convert his tools to success on the big league level. The Rockies will need him, Chacin and de la Rosa to be lights-out if they want a chance this season.

2012 was Rafael Betancourt's first full season in the closer role, and he performed his task admirably on his way to 31 saves with a 2.81 ERA. At age 37 he is unlikely to be the closer of the future for the Rockies, so he may become trade bait later in the season if he is able to keep up his success. New acquisition Wilton Lopez is a wiry arm in the pen, but doesn't have electric stuff whilst Rex Brothers will hope his stellar bullpen work in 2012 continues. The reliever to watch may well be Matt Belisle, who led the NL with 80 appearances last season on his way to a 2.1 win season - impressive for a bullpen man. Ultimately, the success of the pitching staff is going to be greatly limited due to the fact they play half their games at Coors Field. If they can keep themselves in with a chance in games then it's job done. Overall grade: 3/10

Prospects

There's only one name on people's lips in Colorado as far as prospects are concerned, and that is Nolan Arenado. He hit .285 with 12 homers in AA last season, although scouts reportedly said he was playing with little energy. He looks set to at least start the year in the minors. Tim Wheeler may be a bench outfielder for the Rockies this season, and left-hander Edwar Cabrera will be looking to improve his fastball command to match his plus changeup - if he can do so then he may be a nice surprise for the Rockies. The top prospects in this system are still a long way away though. Overall grade: 5/10

Overview

This is a team that looks like it's building for the future, but it doesn't yet have the farm system to be able to put an ETA on that contending team. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez give fans enough reasons to keep watching, but one or both may be on their way out soon if the team can't turn its fortunes around. The pitching is nowhere near good enough yet, and another season as NL West bottom-dwellers may be on the cards.

Prediction: 71-91

Gif to Watch

So... what does that GIF mean? Betancourt throws a fastball over the plate and Jason Castro fouls it off, right? However, this GIF is awesome when given a little perspective. That pitch from Betancourt was the furthest inside he pitched to a left handed batter up to August 31st, and possibly for the rest of the season. He simply peppers the outer half when pitching to left-handers, which might explain why he hasn't hit a batter since 2003, the longest streak in the Majors by far.

This GIF becomes more amazing when you compare Betancourt's heat map to left-handers:

with say, Jamey Wright's heat map to left-handers:

Crazy or what?! Read this and this for more information. Thanks to Jeff Sullivan for making me aware of this.

30 in 30: Arizona Diamondbacks

Welcome to the first in the '30 in 30' series! I will be producing a preview for each Major League team every day for the next 30 days, with the final preview conveniently coinciding with the start of the regular season. I'll be starting today with the NL West and finishing in the AL East, working alphabetically through each division. That means the first preview is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

2012 Season

The Arizona Diamondbacks ultimately endured a frustrating 2012 season, finishing with an 81-81 record, 13 games out in the NL West race. Aaron Hill and Paul Goldschmidt both had breakout seasons, with the former collecting two 'cycles' as part of a memorable season. Justin Upton struggled a little, mostly due to a wrist injury, whilst the D-Backs got terrible production from the 3rd base spot. The pitching was good-but-not-great, with Wade Miley the stand-out performer in his rookie season as he finished second in NL Rookie-of-the-Year voting.

Off-Season Moves

IN: Cody Ross, Martin Prado, Cliff Pennington, Brandon McCarthy, Heath Bell, Didi Gregorius
OUT: Justin Upton, Chris Young, Chris Johnson, Trevor Bauer

Overview: Overall, I think this has been a disappointing off-season for D-Backs fans. The acquisition of Brandon McCarthy was shrewd, and Cliff Pennington fills an immediate need in the short-stop role. However, Justin Upton ended a long period of trade speculation as he left for Atlanta, with the Braves potentially only getting 75 cents for the dollar, although Martin Prado fills a clear need at third base. Trevor Bauer had a public spat with Miguel Montero, and the exit was inevitable as the D-Backs got hold of their short-stop of the future in the form of Didi Gregorius. A lot of noise from the D-Backs management, but ultimately I'm not convinced this team got any stronger. Overall grade: 4/10.

Expected Opening Day Line-up
Position	Player	Projected stat line (OBP/SLG/WAR)
CF	Adam Eaton	.358/.418/3.8
2B	Aaron Hill	.327/.444/3.6
C	Miguel Montero	.357/.435/3.9
LF	Jason Kubel	.333/.465/2.1
3B	Martin Prado	.347/.425/3.8
1B	Paul Goldschmidt	.375/.501/2.5
RF	Cody Ross	.321/.444/1.9
SS	Cliff Pennington	.315/.246/2.3

Expected Rotation
Starter	Player	Projected stat line (IP/ERA/WAR)
1	Ian Kennedy	214/3.49/3.2
2	Trevor Cahill	202/3.79/2.8
3	Brandon McCarthy	182/3.46/2.2
4	Wade Miley	199/3.57/3.1
5	Tyler Skaggs	142/4.76/1.0

Position Players

I think the exit of Justin Upton leaves them lacking in star-power, a view that is confirmed by the ZiPS WAR projections, who don't see them having a single player above 4 WAR. My initial view is that these projections, particularly regarding WAR are a little harsh on young first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has lost value due to supposedly below-par defense. I think he could be poised to break out at the heart of the Diamondbacks line-up.

Adam Eaton is an intriguing option atop the line-up. He hit .381 in AAA last season on his way to a batting title, and his 42 steals suggest he can do damage once he is on base. He could be one to watch in the Rookie of the Year stakes. I expect regression from Aaron Hill this season, although he could still easily hit .280 with plenty of power. A full season from Miguel Montero will be crucial if they are going to fill the void left behind by Upton, and clever use of platoon splits in the outfield might be key (Cody Ross crushes left-handers, but should be benched in favour of Gerardo Parra when a right-hander takes to the mound). Overall grade: 6/10

Pitching

I like the look of the D-Backs rotation. Ian Kennedy struggled a little last season with an ERA above 4.00, although the .306 BABIP suggests he suffered from a bit of bad luck. Trevor Cahill showed good progress, with more improvement in the K/9 rate and his third consecutive season with more than 196 IP suggesting he is becoming a bit of a workhorse. Wade Miley may regress towards the mean, but Tyler Skaggs is an enticing option as a 5th starter with plenty of upside.

In the bullpen, the acquisition of Heath Bell may yet prove a shrewd one. If he can rediscover his Padres form then he'll be a useful arm late on in games. J.J. Putz kept his ERA under 3.00 for the third consecutive season and is becoming a reliable 9th inning man. Perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the pen is set-up man David Hernandez, whose 2.50 ERA and 12.91 K/9 were both career bests. His improvement has largely been down to a silent but deadly slider. In 112 plate appearances ending with a slider in 2012, batters were able to hit just .088 with 71(!) strikeouts. The rotation has good strength in depth and the bullpen should improve on an excellent 2012 campaign. Overall grade: 8/10

Prospects

The top Arizona prospect at the moment is Tyler Skaggs, who clocked in at 12 on Keith Law's top 100 prospects list, the highest of any left-handed pitching prospect. Matt Davidson is an intriguing third base prospect, although his path to the Majors is clearly now blocked by Prado. Andrew Chafin and Anthony Meo may be ready to contribute in the bullpen this season. Overall grade: 6/10

Overview

This is a team that has the starting pitching to be competitive in every game, but without a 20-win ace, I think they'll miss the MVP-calibre production of Justin Upton. They may stay competitive in the West for a while, but ultimately I don't see them improving on last season.

Prediction: 82-80.

Gif to Watch

Take a look at that Trevor Cahill sinker and you may start to understand why Arizona were happy to pay a steep price for him...

Power rankings: Update

My last power rankings post (which can be found here) was nearly two months ago now, and though we're still a good month away from Opening Day, this feels like a good time to give them an update and find out which teams are on the ascendancy and which are flagging before a pitch has been thrown. Some major moves have happened in the time in between, such as the Justin Upton trade and the Michael Bourn signing. What's been the effect on my rankings? The previous ranking can be found in parenthesis.

1. Washington Nationals (1)

No change at the top. Since my last power rankings were posted, the Nationals have only strengthened with the free agent signing of Rafael Soriano, giving them three of the finest bull-pen guys in the Majors with Soriano, Storen and Clippard. The line-up is solid and varied between lead-off and the eight-hole, this team is poised to play great defense and the pitching is only set to improve. Whisper it, but these guys could win 100 games.

2. Cincinnati Reds (3)

The Reds hop up one spot through no fault of their own. The more I look at the team, the more I like their chances to be the pace-setters in the NL Central and possible the Majors themselves. As I've discussed, I like the chances that the Chapman move makes them a better team, and he quietly makes them one of the better rotations in the National League. He, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos could all potentially be ace-calibre, and a mixture of Bailey, Arroyo and Leake will give them solid output. Choo fills an immediate need in the lead-off spot, and whilst his defense in center field may cost them a few runs, the team has to be excited about the possibility of Billy Hamilton getting a call-up midway through the year.

3. Detroit Tigers (4)

Whereas the Nationals and Reds may be clubs that rely on a number of good, 2-3 win players, the Tigers are the polar opposite. Their line-up is strong, even if only because the 3-4 hitters are reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera and left-handed power bat Prince Fielder. The return of Victor Martinez will put an end to the horror-show from the 5 spot they endured last season, and the exit of Delmon Young may prove to be addition by subtraction. Verlander will put up Cy-Young calibre numbers, and Scherzer and Fister are fast making names for themselves. Defense and bullpen may be issues during the course of the season, but the Tigers should run away with the AL Central.

4. Toronto Blue Jays (2)

The Blue Jays have slipped down my rankings a bit, which is more a reflection of the fact that I got a bit caught up in the hype after their massive off-season, rather than any deficiency on their part. Encarnacion and Bautista will bring the power, and Reyes, Cabrera and Bonifacio/Davis will run wild on the bases. The rotation still looks a little shaky, but I like the chances that Dickey will repeat, and I think Morrow could be in for a huge season. The American League East looks set to be a wild division this season, but I expect the revamped Jays to be in the mix from start to finish.

5. Atlanta Braves (7)

Not happy with securing the services of one Upton brother, the Braves went out and pulled off a seven player trade with the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton. This move not only gave the Braves one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, but also a line-up packed with power (and strikeout) potential. It's not just at the plate that the Braves can do damage though, with a rotation consisting of Medlen, Beachy, Maholm, Hudson and Minor that boasts strength in depth. The bullpen has become an area of considerable strength for the Braves, but I wonder if the Braves will end up wishing they had Chipper handling the hot corner for one more season.

6. San Francisco Giants (5)

The Giants tumble a spot through no fault of their own. They deserve more respect having just won their second ring in three seasons, but I just struggle to see where the runs will come from. Buster Posey was incredible in 2012 on his way to the NL MVP title, but regression is surely due (if only in the BABIP department) and someone will need to put up numbers. I like Brandon Belt to start fulfilling his potential, but Hunter Pence has disappointed and Marco Scutaro simply isn't as good as he was in last year's post-season. Cain and Bumgarner are a terrific 1-2 pairing, and whilst Vogelsong continues to belie his age, Lincecum's woes must be concerning and the rotation has little depth. The bullpen will continue to be underrated, but I think the Giants will have a race on their hands for the NL West title.

7. Los Angeles Dodgers (6)

The Dodgers will be the team trying to upset the Giants apple cart. Earning the services of Greinke was a major coup for the Dodgers who easily boast the best rotation depth in the Majors (Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Billingsley, Beckett, Capuano, Lilly, Harang). The line-up isn't too bad either, headlined by Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and the fast-healing Carl Crawford. On paper, the team could be one of the best in the NL, but there are injury worries, particularly for Kemp and Crawford, and Ramirez and Gonzalez may be on the downslope of their career. If everything goes to plan, the Dodgers could be the best team in the Majors though.

8. Texas Rangers (8)

No change for the team in Arlington. I still think they're missing an impact bat after the departure of Hamilton, and they would be wise to try and find a spot for uber-prospect Jurickson Profar. The rotation has good depth though, and the Rangers are always in contention come September. Don't rule them out of signing Lohse just yet either, although I think they missed a trick by letting Upton go to Atlanta.

9. St. Louis Cardinals (10)

The Cardinals are generally criminally underrated in my opinion, and I have perhaps done them a disservice myself by ranking them this low. Let's not forget they were one game away from reaching the World Series (twice!) having won it the year before. The rotation is a quiet strength, although the crushing loss of Chris Carpenter negates this a little. The line-up boasts solid but unspectacular hitters, with the likes of Molina, Holliday, Craig and Beltran expected to carry the load again. If anyone will challenge the Reds in the central this season, it will be the Cards.

10. Los Angeles Angels (9)

Like their cross-town rivals, the Angels are spending big, and stole the off-season show for the second straight season when they plucked Hamilton from the Rangers grasp. Trout/Hamilton/Pujols promises to be an extraordinary combo in the line-up for the Halos, but unfortunately none of them can pitch. A lot of pressure will once more be on the shoulders of Weaver, and C.J. Wilson will need to start pitching like the Angels paid for him to do. This team is the closest to boom or bust you might find.

11. Tampa Bay Rays (11)

The Rays do not get enough credit for fielding a competitive team year after year despite their ballpark and pay-roll issues. Their competitiveness will once again depend heavily on the health of Evan Longoria, but I think the rotation can be elite even without James Shields, and the Rays are bound to find a hidden gem somewhere as they seem to every season. Rule them out at your peril.

12. Oakland Athletics (12)

I think the rotation is underrated, with the young pitchers looking likely to continue their stellar work from last season and Brett Anderson continuing his fine comeback from Tommy John. Cespedes did better than expected in his first year, and the shrewd trade for Jed Lowrie gives them good infield depth. I don't expect them to win the AL West again, but they were no one-season wonder.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks (13)

The off-season was a bizarre one for the D-Backs, although ultimately I don't think it was disastrous. The line-up is still strong, if lacking a little in star-power and the rotation could be one of the more underrated in the NL, especially if Wade Miley can repeat and Trevor Cahill continues to improve. They might struggle in the competitive NL West, but they won't be pushovers.

14. Boston Red Sox (16)

The Red Sox ascend to 14th in my estimations. I don't think this team is primed for the AL East title, although they always have a chance. The rotation needs to get over the 2012 horror show, and whilst the newly formed line-up has a lot of upside, there are injury and performance concerns wherever you look. The health of David Ortiz is starting to look key - and the possibility that Xander Bogaerts will get his first taste of big league action in September has to be exciting for Sox fans.

15. Milwaukee Brewers (15)

Status quo for the Brew Crew, although the injuries to Corey Hart and Mat Gamel are disconcerting. The rotation has question marks after the departure of Greinke, and the line-up will rely on a bounce-back from Weeks and that Carlos Gomez was not a fluke in 2012. Braun makes this team a perennial threat and if they can get over the bullpen disaster from 2012 they might be contenders.

16. New York Yankees (14)

A sobering ranking for the Bronx boys. The line-up lacks bite after second baseman Cano, particularly after the injury to Granderson. Sabathia/Kuroda are a decent one-two punch, but there are concerns about the back-end of the rotation, and Mariano Rivera's health will continue to be an issue. The Yankees always seem to find a way to win, and it's possible the old boys pull out an AL East crown again, but in their urgency to get under the luxury tax threshold may be affecting their World Series chances this year.

17. Cleveland Indians (20)

This ranking relies on a bounce-back from the rotation, in particular Masterson, but the line-up gives Indians fans cause for excitement. This team will strike out, a lot, but will have it's fair share of fireworks, with Santana, Cabrera, Stubbs, Reynolds, Swisher and Bourn all exciting play-makers.

18. Kansas City Royals (17)

The Royals showed they wanted to win this year when they traded away uber prospect Wil Myers for James Shields, and they will need him to be the ace they've never had if they are going to challenge in the AL Central this season. The line-up is stacked with potential, but I see this team struggling for a wildcard spot at best.

19. Baltimore Orioles (19)

Having done little in the off-season to improve on their roster, I expect the Orioles to struggle in the AL East this season. It's possible they pull off a ridiculous record in one-run games again, and it would be harsh to call their incredible bullpen success a fluke. But I think a return towards .500 is inevitable for the Orioles, who are at the disadvantage of playing in a highly competitive division.

20. Philadelphia Phillies (18)

The rotation is stacked at the top, with Halladay, Lee and Hamels all Cy-Young calibre when on top of their game. Unfortunately, the line-up heavily relies on comeback seasons from Utley and Howard, and with Michael and Delmon Young potentially absorbing 1,000 at-bats between them, I don't think this line-up will score many runs.

21. Chicago White Sox (21)

This team pushed Detroit all the way in 2012, but I see regression coming for Rios, De Aza and Sale. The rotation isn't bad, especially with the return of John Danks but Konerko will once again be the main bat in a weak line-up and I don't think they'll have the firepower to remain competitive. Would love to be proven wrong again though!

22. Seattle Mariners (25)

The Mariners have decided to address their offensive woes the cheap way, by bringing in the fences at Safeco and buying old, power-hitting defensive liabilities. Morse, Ibanez, Bay and Morales might go through hot-streaks, but will also have maddening cold-streaks, and if this team wants to genuinely improve, they'll need big steps forward from Montero, Ackley and Seager.

23. San Diego Padres (22)

The Padres have a bright future, and I think if they trade Headley at the right time they could really set themselves on the right track. This year, the team looks set to build on a furious stretch run from last season (they were 42-33 after the all-star break) and let the young talent continue to develop.

24. Chicago Cubs (23)

I like what the Cubs did this off-season, and whilst their still some way from contention, I genuinely think Cubs fans have reason to be optimistic. Rizzo was superb in his small taste of big-league action and Starlin Castro could be poised for a huge season.

25. Pittsburgh Pirates (24)

The Pirates struggled mightily at the back-end of last season, going 12-29 from August 19th onwards and securing a Major League record 20th consecutive losing season. McCutchen is exciting in the outfield, and the pitching rotation has the potential to at least not be terrible. But I see no reason to think it won't be 21 in a row for the Pittsburgh boys.

26. New York Mets (27)

Fielding possibly the worst outfield in baseball is going to be a concern for the Mets this season, although in the long term I think they were better off holding on to their first round pick. They have some exciting prospects coming through in the form of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Travis D'Arnaud, but it's the future, not the present that Mets fans want to see.

27. Minnesota Twins (26)

Rotation issues are going to be a concern once again for the Twins who look likely to be the whipping boys of the AL Central. Prospects look like getting a shot in the out-field, and we'll once again see if the Twins decide to trade Mauer come August but this is very much another team with eyes on 2014 already.

28. Miami Marlins (28)

And it's only by virtue of Giancarlo Stanton that they're not lower. A huge firesale in the off-season has made a lot of fans angry and has left the club stripped to the bare. The farm system has been rejuvenated, but it's only a matter of time before Stanton is on his way too, and this team becomes a joke.

29. Colorado Rockies (29)

Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are legitimate middle-of-the-order sluggers, but the pitching is just terrible. I wouldn't be surprised to see the team finally sell anything of value and try and resurrect the farm system, because they haven't got a chance this season unfortunately.

30. Houston Astros (30)

Welcome to the AL West! I'm excited for this team's future, but they are going to get eaten alive by their division rivals. Fans are most likely excited for the draft.

And there we have it! 1st of March update, with a month before baseball is here. Sorry if I've disrespected your team, would be interested to hear what you have to think!