Saturday 25 August 2012

Why the Sox-Dodgers deal makes sense

After last season, Red Sox fans could be forgiven for thinking that disappointment this season was impossible. They would, however, be wrong. Despite boasting one of the best line-ups in baseball on paper, the Sox struggled with the bat and ball this season, and find themselves out of contention for October baseball. When Adrian Gonzalez was placed on waivers it seemed to be little more than an attempt to test the waters - see which teams would be interested come the off-season. As expected, the Dodgers made a claim - a power hitting left-handed 1st baseman fits their needs perfectly. However, as was not expected, it appears that a shocking, blockbuster trade will indeed take place.

This trade is crazy for a number of reasons. Firstly, Adrian Gonzalez is, despite his well-documented struggles in Boston, one of the elite hitters in the game. He appeared to be turning it around since the all-star break too, hitting .338 with 9 homers and 41 RBI, and at 30, he still has several productive years ahead of him. The Red Sox dealing away Gonzalez seemed incredibly unlikely unless they got rid of several huge contracts in the process.

And that is exactly what they have done. The scapegoat this season in Boston has been Josh Beckett, who having formerly dominated AL hitting, fell apart this year, falling out with other players and fans in the process with his nonchalant approach. Getting rid of Beckett is an absolute blessing for the Red Sox, who not only free up some salary room, but also lose an apparent clubhouse nuisance. The biggest contract sat in the Red Sox clubhouse is also on the way out - talented but underachieving outfielder Carl Crawford will be going to LA along with Beckett and Gonzalez. This is, perhaps, the best side of the deal for the Red Sox, as Crawford's gargantuan salary need no longer be a concern, and the fact that he is unlikely to step on a baseball field for another year after having Tommy John surgery makes him a very expensive player in the short term for the Dodgers.

Not only that, but the Dodgers are losing several big prospects. Both Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster are considered elite pitching prospects, whilst James Loney fills a short-term gap at 1st base. There is no doubt that LA are destroying their farm system in the hope for nearby success. However, this is still a good move for LA management. 1st base was a problem for them, and in Adrian Gonzalez they have a major upgrade. Carl Crawford is still reasonably young, and when he bounces back from surgery he will provide elite hitting and speed from left field. Josh Beckett was once considered one of the best pitchers in the game, and if he can rediscover some of that form he bolsters the LA rotation. The salary, at least for the moment, appears to be the least of their concerns.

For both sides this trade makes sense - the Red Sox have cleared up vast amounts of salary room and can rebuild in the off-season. The Dodgers may have pulled off an incredible coup by receiving 3 potentially elite players in August and they now have an extremely legitimate chance at making the post-season.

Monday 20 August 2012

Looking back at pre-season predictions

So, for those of you who remember, I produced some bold pre-season predictions back in March and said I would look back on them during the season. Although we are now already very deep into the season, i figured now would be a good time to see how I am getting on...

1. Yovani Gallardo wins the Cy Young

Well, this was quite clearly bold and, in hindsight, quite clearly wrong. Whilst there are no doubts that Gallardo has the raw stuff to be an elite pitcher (his strikeout numbers have remained impressive) his inconsistency has once again dogged him this year. A 12-8 record with a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP is not terrible by any means, but if you take out some of his absolute stinkers like 5 innings, 7 ERs against Washington in June and two atrocious starts against St Louis in April then his stats begin to become excellent. He suffers largely from inconsistency and inability to properly locate his fastball. Only twice all year has he managed to get through an outing without giving up a walk, and that has elevated his pitch counts in every start. He has thrown over 97 pitches in all but two starts this season, yet has not been able to get through 8 innings in a single one. If he could make himself more efficient, saving the long at-bats and strikeouts for critical situations, he could yet make himself a Cy Young contender in the future.

2. The Red Sox don't make the playoffs (again)

Hampered by key injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Andrew Bailey and recently Ortiz and Pedroia, the Red Sox seemed destined for another 'what-if' season. Their starting rotation has been nothing short of terrible for large majorities of the season, with veterans Lester and Beckett turning from reliable work-horses into inconsistent pitchers. Their chances at the playoffs seem to be over, although with Ellsbury and Crawford back, Buchholz pitching well and Adrian Gonzalez finally cranking the ball to all fields, there is no team in baseball you'd pick over the Red Sox to make a late run now. I'll give myself a pat on the back for this prediction at the moment, although we will need to wait until October to see if the Sox have a chance at playoff baseball.

3. Giancarlo Stanton will win the home run crown

I expected Stanton to put up astronomical numbers this season for a number of reasons - firstly absolutely destroys the ball if it is in the strike zone, secondly he has got better at identifying when the ball isn't in the strike zone and thirdly he had the most line-up protection he had ever received. Despite playing in one of the most spacious ballparks in the National League, I was correct - Stanton has been a beast when playing. However, that has been the problem. Sidelined for over a month between July and August, Stanton was forced to watch from the sidelines as the Marlins imploded. However, he has continued to tear the cover off the ball whilst he is healthy - a .287 average with 24 homers and 61 RBI is testament to that. A run at the home run crown seems impossible with him 9 big flies off the pace, but there is no-one with more raw power in baseball, so if Stanton gets hot - look out.

4. Lucas Duda becomes an elite outfielder

Ah. At the start of the season I was quietly confident that Duda could put together an excellent season - he had drawn rave reviews from the Mets staff and had put together an excellent spring training that seemed to confirm him a spot in the middle of the Mets lineup. He put together reasonable stat-lines in April and May but simply fell apart in June and July. His 12 homers led the Mets for a while, but his low batting average and poor fielding led the Mets to drop him down to AAA. He is working on a new stance that the Mets will hope allow him to make more solid contact with the ball, but any sort of vault into the upper echelons of Major League outfielder will take quite some turnaround from Duda.

5. The Nationals go to the NLCS

Well, this is probably the prediction I have done best in so far. The Nats sport the best record in the Majors at 75-46 and are currently running away with what was expected to be a tight NL East race. At the moment it seems their place in the post-season is a formality if they keep playing the way they have been all season, and what happens when they get there is anyone's guess. Behind phenomenal starting pitching from Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmermann, the Nats have put together an excellent season, despite some below-par hitting from the middle of their order. With shortstop Ian Desmond back, the Nats will hope to power away from rivals Atlanta and secure their crown at the top of the NL East. An interesting twist will be what happens to Stephen Strasburg. Having lived up to his hype as an elite pitcher, Strasburg was expected to be pulled after 160 innings this season. However, 140 innings into this season and Strasburg is a key reason why the Nats are making a playoff run. If the Nats do decide to remove him from the rotation, they will likely be without him for several weeks of the season. Another option could be to remove him from the regular season but reinstate him for the post-season. All these questions will be tough to answer for Nats GM Rizzo.

Thursday 9 August 2012

Top 5: Everything

The all-star break has come and gone, gaudy early season stats have straightened themselves up, and teams are beginning to understand whether they have a shot at October baseball or not. That's not to say that everything has straightened itself out and normality has returned. Mike Trout, the Angels rookie sensation is still putting up astonishing numbers, Tim Lincecum is continuing to struggle in the Giants rotation and the AL East is as tight as it will ever be, with only 3 wins separating 2nd from 5th. However, I felt it was a good point at the season to make a few 'top 5' lists - I mean who doesn't love ranking players, teams and even home runs...

Top 5 Surprises

1. The Washington Nationals. Competing in the always-competitive NL East, the Nationals were expected to be a team that could challenge for a wildcard spot under the new system. Instead, the young team started hot and never looked back, currently topping the division by 2.5 games to Atlanta. Most of this success can be attributed to phenomenal pitching, as Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann have been exceptional at the front end of the rotation, while Clippard has been superb in his transition from set-up man to closer. The Nationals have also been able to win games without some big bats in the lineup - Ryan Zimmerman has only hit top form recently, Morse was injured for most of the first half and Jayson Werth is still on the disabled list. However, linked to the dramatic success of the Nationals has been the dramatic failure of the Phillies. Armed with the best rotation in the Major Leagues, the Phillies have been an astonishing disappointment, with offensive woes the main reason they are 13.5 games behind in the AL East. With the seemingly imminent exit of potent left-hander Cole Hamels, the Phillies may have to begin some offensive rebuilding if they want to repeat the success of recent years.

2. The Chicago White Sox. Had you told me at the beginning of the season that the White Sox would be atop their division come the end of July I would have found it difficult to believe you. But a combination of excellent starting pitching and brutal hitting has powered them atop the AL Central by 0.5 games over the Tigers. The pitching has been superb at the front of games, with Chris Sale and Jake Peavy dominant, whilst the hitting has been nothing short of resurgent. Paul Konerko's hitting continues to belie his age, whilst Adam Dunn will surely be in the frame for comeback player of the season as he continues to set the pace in home runs. Alejandro De Aza and Alex Rios have been superb at the top of the order, and the shrewd signing of Kevin Youkilis is already paying dividends. This has suddenly become a team that could not only make the post-season, but upset a team or two whilst it's there.

3. Mike Trout. Not enough can be said about the kind of season this kid is putting up. When watching him play, you have to keep reminding yourself that he is 20 years old. That this is his first full taste of Major League action. That he is nowhere near his prime years. Trout's astonishing start to the season has simply never stopped or slowed. He continues to hit with a batting average the freakish side of .350, he continues to steal bases like a veteran speedster, and he continues to mash home runs and chalk up runs and RBI at the kind of rates some predicted of him during his late 20s. Of course, it is possible that this season is the best Trout will experience stat-wise. But if he can come even close to repeating this sort of level of production in the future then he is going to be one of the greatest players to grace the sport in 20 years time.

4. Tim Lincecum. What's up with him this year? His fastball velocity has dipped from around 94mph in seasons past to 90, but that doesn't come close to explaining his atrocious season to date. The man who was consistently 'the stopper' for the Giants, becoming a win and strikeout machine has disappeared. Despite his high strikeout rate, he has been incredibly hittable this season, with teams jumping on him and he has quickly become the weak link of the Giants rotation as Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong continue to impress. He has a 4-10 record, and could easily be highlighted as the reason that the Giants are only 2.5 games ahead in the NL West despite surprising offensive production. There's no doubt he has the stuff to be an ace, so whatever it is that has hampered him this season needs to be sorted out, because if the Giants wish to repeat 2010, they will need the shutdown 'freak' of old.

5. Fernando Rodney. In a year where plenty of reliable pitchers have struggled, with closers demoted and starters leaking runs, Rodney has rather slipped under the radar and become the best relief pitcher in baseball. This kind of statement would have made many fans laugh last season, when Rodney struggled mightily with his control, unable to nail down any sort of consistency from the bullpen. However, after an impressive spring training he earned the role of closer with the injury to Kyle Farnsworth, and from that point onward he has been flawless. He has converted 32 of 33 save opportunities, striking out 50 and incredibly walking just 7. His ERA is miniscule at 0.72 and his WHIP is elite at 0.77. Rodney has gone from being a liability in the 'pen, to being the number one closer in baseball.

Top 5 Over-performers

1. Oakland Athletics. Umm, where on earth did this come from?! The Oakland Athletics who shopped their best players for young arms during the off-season. The Oakland Athletics who have had their ace (Brett Anderson) out for over a year. The Oakland Athletics who are forced to contest with a payroll dwarfed by other AL powerhouses. The Oakland Athletics who compete in the fiercely competitive AL West. Yes, the Oakland Athletics who are 58-50 and sit atop the AL Wildcard race. A line-up that had unknown entity Yoenis Cespedes and Red Sox back-up outfielder Josh Reddick as their 3-4 combo would have scared no-one at the start of the season. But the rookie arms have come up big - Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone have been a revelation. Josh Reddick has been tearing the cover off the ball. And the A's have an astonishing 13 walk-off wins - 13!

2. Melky Cabrera. To call Melky an over-performer would probably be a bit harsh, and he perhaps deserves to be slotted in to the 'surprises' section, but this season has been so unprecedented for Cabrera, that I'm going to put him here anyway. His first 5 seasons with the Yankees he was ok, but nothing more. Average around the .260 mark, 10-15 steals but little power, with no more than 13 in any season. In 2011, he was excellent for KC, hitting .305 with 18 homers and 20 steals on his way to 100 runs and 200 hits. Understandably, this provoked a move to a 'challenger', with the Giants snapping him up and that has proved to be the most astute move of the off-season. Melky has hit .352 with 11 homers and 12 steals already this season, and has been the main reason why the Giants are atop their division. The usually anaemic offense has got the boost it so direly needed through Cabrera, and he will need to continue his high standard if they want to go to the World Series again.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates. The team that was a year removed from the worst record in baseball is putting up a serious challenge for a wildcard berth. Although the recent tear from Cincinatti has left Pittsburgh 4.5 games out of the Central, they remain in wildcard position with a 61-46 record. The astute signing of A.J. Burnett has paid dividends, as he put a poor final season with the Yankees behind him and has become the anchor of the rotation. Young pitcher James McDonald has also been a revelation, adding a slider to his armoury and turning into an ace, with high strikeouts and wins despite a recent dip in production. However, the clear main man in Pittsburgh is Andrew McCutchen, who has well and truly turned from a player with high-potential, to a player with MVP-calibre production. Currently leading the Majors with an astronomic .368 batting average, McCutchen has also bopped 23 homers and 67 RBI, whilst chipping in with 14 steals and excellent defense.

4. Alex Rios. A player who had always been viewed as toolsy enough to become a consistent 30-30 hitter, Rios had always been handed the under-achiever tag, and it appeared that in his age 31 season, his best years were behind him. Although his career highs in average (.302), home runs (24) and steals (34) were impressive, he had never been able to do it all in the same season. Until this year. Rios has been a revelation for the Sox at the top of the order, hitting at an impressive clip of .316, stealing 15 bags and hitting a healthy 18 home runs. A potential candidate for comeback player of the season (although team-mate Adam Dunn may have something to say about that), Rios has been a crucial reason why the Sox have continued to push the Tigers hard in the AL Central.

5. R.A. Dickey. The 37 year old knuckleballer has enjoyed the sort of fairytale season that makes baseball so special. Between 2001 and 2009, Dickey was unable to compose a season with more than 9 wins, an ERA under 4.62 or a WHIP under 1.55. However, in 2010 he joined the New York Mets and became the veteran arm of their rotation. He continued to develop his knuckleball, compiling two strong seasons with highs in ERA, WHIP, wins and strikeouts. However, not even the most optimistic of baseball fans could have predicted his 2012 campaign. Having finally mastered his hard knuckleball which he throws in the high 70's, Dickey has been arguably the best pitcher in the major leagues. In 22 starts, he has gone 14-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He has thrown 3 complete games (all in an astonishing June) and two consecutive one-hitters. Perhaps most impressively as a knuckleballer is his strikeout stats - his 156 K's are 4th in the Majors.

Top 5 Games

First off, it must be said that these are in no particular order:

1. 18 April - SF 1 - 0 PHI. Now that was a real pitchers duel. Two aces at the top of their games did battle, as the Cliff Lee worked 10 scoreless innings and got a no decision. No, seriously. Matching him step for step was Matt Cain, who threw 9 shutout innings giving up just 2 hits and earned a no-decision. What was more incredible was the fact that both pitchers could probably have gone further. Lee threw only 102 pitches in his 10 innings, and Cain needed to fire just 91 to get through his 9. In one of the most dominant displays of pitching this season, neither ace got the 'W' they worked so hard for.

2. 8 May - TEX 10 - 3 BAL. Josh Hamilton had enjoyed an excellent start to the season, leading the league in home runs, RBI and average. Then he went to Camden Yards and in one game went 5-5 with 4 homers and a double. The feat (hitting 4 home runs) is rarer than a perfect game historically, so Hamilton's incredible night penned his name in the history books, as he tore the leather off the ball leading Texas to victory.

3. 13 May - CIN 9 - 6 WAS. Another incredible day at the plate for one of the Majors' best sluggers, but this time it was Joey Votto who produced the fireworks. Down a run in the 9th, Cincinatti loaded the bases with two outs for their star slugger, who, having already homered twice, sent a walk-off grand slam deep into the Cincinatti night.

4. 13 June - SF 10 - 0 HOU. Matt Cain had been having a pretty good 2012, and he had been having an even better June. No-one could have predicted what he would do on this night though, as he stunned the Astros and produced a perfect game. Cain struck out a career-high 15, but needed an an incredible defensive play to ensure perfection.

5. 5 August - CLE 8 - 10 DET Having chosen a couple of games for standout pitching performances and a couple for standout hitting performances, I thought I'd make the last game a good old fashioned thriller. And the titanic battle between the two AL Central rivals proved to be just that. With the Indians practically imploding on a huge losing streak, they must have thought they had done enough when Hafner and Carrera went back-to-back and then Marson added another insurance run in the top of the 10th. Closer Perez was brought in to close it out and after retiring the first two batters quickly, it looked like being a formality. However, Avila and Dirks both worked walks and having already gotten three hits, Austin Jackson doubled to put himself in scoring position. With the tying run at 2nd, it was all down to Omar Infante, and he came through after a 5 pitch at-bat to drive both runs in with a single and tie the game. With Perez on the ropes, Tigers stud Miguel Cabrera worked a 3-1 count, before launching a walk-off 2 run homer into the left field seats.

Top 5 Home Runs

Some of these are on the list because they're simply titanic shots, whilst some are on because of the game situation.

1. Buster Posey v Milwaukee Miller Park is not a cavernous park, and hitters frequently reach the batters eye at dead center with home runs. However, I had never seen anyone manage to hit the scoreboard above the batters eye until Buster hit this titanic shot. Notable mention goes to this blast into the upper deck at Safeco.

2. Josh Willingham v Oakland Although Oakland have been the kings of the walk-off so far this season, they fell the wrong side of one in this match-up with the Twins. Having been blanked all the way until the 9th inning, and down 2-0 with 2 outs, the ex-Athletics slugger outed a walk-off three run homer to steal the victory.

3. Joe Mauer v Boston It's the Twins again, it's the 9th again and they're down to their last out again. With the tying run at second, Mauer comes through in a big way, slapping the 3-2 pitch over the Green Monster and giving the Twins a 9th inning lead with this clutch blast

4. Cameron Maybin v Arizona They say that the biggest home runs just make a different sound off the bat, and that holds true with this titanic blast from the Padres center-fielder that sounded like he was hitting a tennis ball. According to the ESPN home run tracker this is the biggest blast of the season, and there's no doubt that Maybin got all of it.

5. Prince Fielder v New York So I am cheating a bit with this home run, as it was actually hit in spring training, but I think it deserves this bit of rule bending. R.A. Dickey threw one of his slow breaking balls and Fielder got all of it, depositing it into the palm trees in right with a titanic swing

Top 5 Defensive Plays

Again these are in no particular order, and again, some are in because of their pure flair, and some are in because of the game situation

1. Mike Trout v Baltimore In many people's eyes the play of the season, this incredible grab came when Hardy was in the middle of a slump. Leaping high above the wall, Trout brought back a sure home run and etched himself into the plays of the year contention.

2. Mike Moustakas v New York With two outs in the 9th inning, but the tying run standing at 3rd base, there was no-one making an early exit with Alex Rodriguez at the plate. His slow dribbler up the 3rd base line fooled everyone except the man who mattered - Mike Moustakas - who charged in, barehanded the ball and threw a bullet to 1st to get A-Rod by a step and end the game

3. Roger Bernadina v Houston Having got themselves a 9th inning lead, closer Tyler Clippard ran into trouble in the bottom of the inning, putting the tying run at second base. Astros slugger Brett Wallace clobbered a fastball into left centre field, and it looked as though the Astros might have a chance at winning it with the go-ahead run at first base. What they didn't bank on was Nationals center-fielder Roger Bernadina making an astonishing game-ending play as he crashed into the wall.

4. Cesar Izturis v Houston Once again the Astros are on the wrong end of an incredible game-ending play. With a one-run lead in the 9th, the Brewers bullpen once again imploded, and with the tying run at 3rd, Martinez appeared to line a clutch base hit through the infield off John Axford. However, Izturis dived and gloved the ball in shallow left, and although it seemed the throw would be too late, he managed to beat Martinez by a step and finish the game.

5. Ben Revere v Boston When Saltalamacchia hit a deep fly ball to center field, everyone in the park including the base runners thought it was over the center-fielders head. Everyone except Ben Revere, who scampered back and made a ridiculous over-the-shoulder basket catch. He threw the ball back to the infield where the Twins turned an easy - and important - double play